First class issue of 27 Oct 2026

Forecast window 28 Oct 2026 to 27 Nov 2026 · Three event classes · Sealed issue file

Issue of 25 Oct 2026

206 conflict escalation questions · Forecast open until 31 Dec 2026

Sealed ledger SHA256 6921551e2d7ad25f1eec39876b90a1357119168020dff613a255817811ea6873

Published probabilities stay unchanged. Outcomes are assessed against dated UCDP records after the forecast window closes. An incomplete source cannot settle a question. Unresolved means the available evidence does not establish whether the event happened.

Outcome record SHA256 23241362ed93c2b20eea41364cb3c38181568c87311fc167587836f1176eacc7

Issue of 24 Oct 2026

206 conflict escalation questions · Forecast open until 31 Dec 2026

Each figure estimates the chance that organised violence on a country's territory, or with its government as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months, in November or December 2026. It does not measure current levels of violence.

Sealed ledger SHA256 c31baeb3901c5443b74aaeee6666b32c05748814f95bc5ccf2fb7c9659370852

Estimates use historical frequencies grouped by the average monthly deaths in July–September 2026, with Jeffreys smoothing. The new model did not meet the admission criteria set before the retrospective test, so the pre-specified fallback selection rule was applied. The band-frequency method was selected using 2018–2025 data, and these estimates will be evaluated against the outcomes of November and December 2026. Countries in the same recent-death band receive the same estimate. Different bands can have similar historical escalation rates. These estimates concern an increase relative to each country's recent level of violence.

Published probabilities stay unchanged. Outcomes are assessed against dated UCDP records after the forecast window closes. An incomplete source cannot settle a question. Unresolved means the available evidence does not establish whether the event happened.

Outcome record SHA256 b2fe652c153b2ad1cf540c4610b9f1c0b67c77ee6b49682323aadfefa002fbcd

Issue of 22 Oct 2026

206 conflict escalation questions · Forecast open until 21 Nov 2026

Each figure is the chance that fighting involving the country jumps to at least 25 deaths and twice its recent monthly level in October or November 2026. It is not a measure of how violent the country is today.

Published probabilities stay unchanged. Outcomes are assessed against dated UCDP records after the forecast window closes. An incomplete source cannot settle a question. Unresolved means the available evidence does not establish whether the event happened.

Outcome record SHA256 349be791aa77aa4d2792e875d637fb72afc0ef7b00b8feda6f30996366f297e3