FRA, 2003
Published archive distance 0.3401. This similarity is not a forecast.
POL
Poland
Poland has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
58 / 100
#59 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Poland in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in Poland in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Poland, or with Poland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- <0.1% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population36.4M36,435,861 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalWarsawWarsaw · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area312.7k km²312679 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$1T (2025)1.03549e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyPLNPLN · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesPolishPolish · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces189k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsThe events record lacks the documented evidence needed for a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshot L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 91 (1946-1949); lowest 37.1 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 55 · Country record
- 2025election
- 2020election
- 17 Jan 2018street pressure
- 11 Nov 2017street pressure
- 1 Jan 2017external support
- 3 Oct 2016street pressure
- 23 Jan 2016street pressure
- 1 Jan 2015external support
- 2015election
- 13 Dec 2014street pressure
- 14 Sep 2013street pressure
- 1 Jan 2013external support
Show all 55
- 1 Jan 2011external support
- 1 Jul 2010external support
- 2010election
- 1 May 2009external support
- 2009currency stress
- 2005election
- 25 Apr 2003street pressure
- 26 Apr 2002street pressure
- 4 Oct 2000street pressure
- 2000election
- 24 Sep 1999street pressure
- 10 Jul 1998street pressure
- 25 Apr 1997street pressure
- 1997currency stress
- 25 Oct 1996street pressure
- 13 Sep 1996street pressure
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 24 Nov 1995street pressure
- 1995election
- 1 Aug 1994external support
- 10 Feb 1994street pressure
- 1994currency stress
- 1 Mar 1993external support
- 1993currency stress
- 25 Apr 1992street pressure
- 1992currency stress
- 1 Apr 1991external support
- 1 Apr 1990external support
- 1990currency stress
- 1990election
- 1 Dec 1989external support
- 1989currency stress
- 1989election
- 1988currency stress
- 1987currency stress
- 1985currency stress
- 1984currency stress
- 1982currency stress
- 13 Dec 1981state of emergency
- 1981sovereign stress
- 1980currency stress
- 20 Dec 1970leadership break
- 1960sovereign stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 85.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 81.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 80.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 71.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 57.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 56.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1980 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 70.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 90.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 65.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 52.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2004 | 42.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2005 | 48.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2006 | 38.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2007 | 35.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2008 | 31.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2009 | 37.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2010 | 29.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2011 | 29.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2012 | 28.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2013 | 29.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2014 | 30.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2015 | 31.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2016 | 56.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 57.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 57.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 34.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2020 | 55.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 42.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2023 | 28.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2024 | 20.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 20.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: France, 2003
Details
CZE, 2003
Published archive distance 0.3794. This similarity is not a forecast.
KOR, 2014
Published archive distance 0.3931. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy65%Confirmed: 1 of 8; Sourced: 7 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics57%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 5 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 1 of 7
L4 Events18%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 1 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 3 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 4 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 1 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 55.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Poland in this snapshot
Poland (POL) records Watch pressure at 58.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 55.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
3 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Poland has pressure score 58/100 in Watch. 58 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 11 share this score. Its competition rank is 59. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Nicaragua (NIC), 58/100, tied; Qatar (QAT), 58/100, tied.
Poland's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 91). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 37.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 91 | 79 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 81.5 | 74.4 | 87.7 | 6 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 82.9 | 80.6 | 84.7 | 10 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 67.6 | 56.9 | 80.1 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 73 | 67.1 | 85.8 | 2 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 75.5 | 67.5 | 90.9 | 2 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 48.6 | 31.9 | 66.5 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 38.5 | 28.9 | 57.5 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 37.1 | 20.3 | 55.4 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Poland's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948; the minimum is 20.3 in 2024-2025.
Poland is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 62 of 80 readings: 1946-2002, 2016-2018, 2020-2021. The remaining 18 are below 55.
Poland is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 54 of 80 readings: 1946-1976, 1980-2002. The remaining 26 are below 65.
Poland is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 24 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1955, 1960-1970, 1981-1982, 1990-1991. The remaining 56 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Poland is 2021 to 2022: Watch (55.2) to Calm (42.8). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Poland records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.