SLV, 1995
Published archive distance 0.1707. This similarity is not a forecast.
SSD
South Sudan
South Sudan has a Crisis pressure reading, near the top of the ranking.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
85 / 100
#5 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in South Sudan in November or December 2026: 26% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in South Sudan in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of South Sudan, or with South Sudan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 26% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population12.2M12,188,788 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalJubaJuba
Area619.7k km²619745
GDP~$12B (2015)~12.0 USD bn (2015, WB , stale; current estimated GDP ~7-8 bn post-oil disruption) · Year 2015 · Source: World Bank, 2015
CurrencySSPSSP , South Sudanese pound (£)
LanguagesEnglishEnglish
Armed forces53k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 94.2 (2011-2019); lowest 82.7 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 36 · Country record
- Sep 2025conflict escalation
- Mar 2025conflict escalation
- Jan 2025conflict escalation
- Jul 2024conflict escalation
- Feb 2024conflict escalation
- Feb 2023conflict escalation
- Dec 2022conflict escalation
- Jul 2022conflict escalation
- Jun 2021conflict escalation
- May 2021conflict escalation
- Mar 2021conflict escalation
- May 2020conflict escalation
Show all 36
- Aug 2019conflict escalation
- Apr 2018conflict escalation
- Dec 2017conflict escalation
- Nov 2017conflict escalation
- Apr 2017conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2017displacement surge
- Dec 2016conflict escalation
- Jul 2016conflict escalation
- Jun 2016conflict escalation
- Feb 2016conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2016displacement surge
- Oct 2015conflict escalation
- 3 Mar 2015new sanctions
- Mar 2015conflict escalation
- Feb 2015conflict escalation
- Apr 2014conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2014displacement surge
- Dec 2013conflict escalation
- Oct 2013conflict escalation
- 2013sovereign stress
- Dec 2012conflict escalation
- Nov 2012conflict escalation
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- Dec 2011conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 88.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 93.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 73.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 76.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: El Salvador, 1995
Details
SLE, 1976
Published archive distance 0.1776. This similarity is not a forecast.
PAK, 1988
Published archive distance 0.1922. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy71%Confirmed: 3 of 8; Sourced: 4 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics74%Confirmed: 4 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 2 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events78%Confirmed: 3 of 5; Sourced: 1 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information60%Confirmed: 0 of 3; Sourced: 3 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society77%Confirmed: 4 of 6; Sourced: 0 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 70.9The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
South Sudan in this snapshot
South Sudan (SSD) records Crisis pressure at 85.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 70.9.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 16 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
South Sudan has pressure score 85/100 in Crisis. 4 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 4 share this score. Its competition rank is 5. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Palestine, State of (PSE), 85/100, tied; Pakistan (PAK), 84/100, lower by 1.
South Sudan's highest decade mean is recorded in 2011-2019 (9 readings, mean 94.2). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 82.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-2019 | 9 | 94.2 | 88.6 | 95 | 9 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 82.7 | 73 | 93.6 | 3 |
Across 15 annual readings (2011-2025), South Sudan's mapped-score peak is 95 in 2011, 2013-2018; the minimum is 73 in 2023.
Every published year for South Sudan, 2011-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 15 of 15 readings.
Every published year for South Sudan, 2011-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 65: 15 of 15 readings.
South Sudan is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 12 of 15 readings: 2011-2022. The remaining 3 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for South Sudan is 2022 to 2023: Crisis (84.7) to Strain (73). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
South Sudan records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.