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Switzerland

Switzerland has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

28 / 100

#143 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Switzerland in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Switzerland in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Switzerland, or with Switzerland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population9.1M
CapitalBern
Area41.3k km²
GDP$1T (2025)
CurrencyCHF
LanguagesFrench + more
Armed forces20k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
45
L3 Politics
17.09
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
5.34
L6 Society
40

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 27.1 (1990s); lowest 17.5 (2010s).

Details

Recorded events 2 · Country record

  • 17 Jan 2020street pressure
  • 3 Mar 1990street pressure

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Switzerland · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194620.7Calmarchive reading
194720.7Calmarchive reading
194820.7Calmarchive reading
194918.7Calmarchive reading
195018.6Calmarchive reading
195118.6Calmarchive reading
195218.6Calmarchive reading
195318.5Calmarchive reading
195418.5Calmarchive reading
195518.5Calmarchive reading
195618.4Calmarchive reading
195718.4Calmarchive reading
195852.8Calmarchive reading
195918.4Calmarchive reading
196018.4Calmarchive reading
196118.4Calmarchive reading
196218.3Calmarchive reading
196318.3Calmarchive reading
196418.3Calmarchive reading
196518.3Calmarchive reading
196618.2Calmarchive reading
196718.2Calmarchive reading
196818.2Calmarchive reading
196918.2Calmarchive reading
197018.2Calmarchive reading
197118.2Calmarchive reading
197218.1Calmarchive reading
197318.1Calmarchive reading
197417.8Calmarchive reading
197551.7Calmarchive reading
197651.7Calmarchive reading
197717.8Calmarchive reading
197817.8Calmarchive reading
197917.8Calmarchive reading
198017.7Calmarchive reading
198117.7Calmarchive reading
198251.6Calmarchive reading
198317.7Calmarchive reading
198417.7Calmarchive reading
198517.7Calmarchive reading
198617.7Calmarchive reading
198717.7Calmarchive reading
198817.8Calmarchive reading
198917.7Calmarchive reading
199023.1Calmarchive reading
199157.8Watcharchive reading
199232.5Calmarchive reading
199351.6Calmarchive reading
199417.8Calmarchive reading
199517.7Calmarchive reading
199617.6Calmarchive reading
199717.6Calmarchive reading
199817.6Calmarchive reading
199917.6Calmarchive reading
200017.8Calmarchive reading
200117.7Calmarchive reading
200219.6Calmarchive reading
200333.5Calmarchive reading
200418.0Calmarchive reading
200518.0Calmarchive reading
200617.8Calmarchive reading
200717.5Calmarchive reading
200833.7Calmarchive reading
200951.3Calmarchive reading
201017.5Calmarchive reading
201117.5Calmarchive reading
201217.5Calmarchive reading
201317.5Calmarchive reading
201417.5Calmarchive reading
201517.9Calmarchive reading
201618.0Calmarchive reading
201718.0Calmarchive reading
201817.4Calmarchive reading
201915.9Calmarchive reading
202024.5Calmarchive reading
202118.0Calmarchive reading
202218.9Calmarchive reading
202321.7Calmarchive reading
202420.5Calmarchive reading
202519.5Calmarchive reading
Switzerland · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202628Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Norway, 2007

Details
Norway, 2007Netherlands, 2007Denmark, 1999

NOR, 2007

Published archive distance 0.0796. This similarity is not a forecast.

NLD, 2007

Published archive distance 0.1105. This similarity is not a forecast.

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.1166. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Switzerland
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy60%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society57%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 55.7

Switzerland in this snapshot

Switzerland (CHE) records Calm pressure at 28.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 55.7.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Switzerland has pressure score 28/100 in Calm. 142 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 143. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Ghana (GHA), 28/100, tied; Albania (ALB), 27.5/100, lower by 0.5.

Switzerland's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 27.1). The lowest is 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 17.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Switzerland: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949420.218.720.70
1950-19591021.918.452.80
1960-19691018.318.218.40
1970-19791024.717.851.70
1980-19891021.117.751.60
1990-19991027.117.657.80
2000-20091024.517.551.30
2010-20191017.515.9180
2020-2025620.51824.50

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Switzerland's mapped-score peak is 57.8 in 1991; the minimum is 15.9 in 2019.

Switzerland is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 1 of 80 readings: 1991. The remaining 79 are below 55.

Switzerland never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Switzerland never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Switzerland is 1991 to 1992: Watch (57.8) to Calm (32.5). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Switzerland records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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