BTN, 2011
Published archive distance 0.3069. This similarity is not a forecast.
AZE
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
54 / 100
#91 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Azerbaijan in November or December 2026: 3.7% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Azerbaijan in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Azerbaijan, or with Azerbaijan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 3.7% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population10.2M10,246,996 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBakuBaku
Area86.6k km²86600
GDP$75.9B (2025)75.9 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyAZNAZN , Azerbaijani manat
LanguagesAzerbaijani, RussianAzerbaijani, Russian
Armed forces82k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 84 (1990s); lowest 59.2 (2010s).
Details
Recorded events 58 · Country record
- 2024election
- Sep 2023conflict escalation
- Sep 2022conflict escalation
- 27 Sep 2020state of emergency
- Sep 2020conflict escalation
- 2020sovereign stress
- 2018election
- Apr 2016conflict escalation
- 2016currency stress
- 2015currency stress
- 2013election
- 1 Jan 2009capital controls
Show all 58
- 2008election
- 13 Nov 2005street pressure
- 27 Aug 2005street pressure
- 1 Jan 2004capital controls
- 2004sovereign stress
- 12 Oct 2003street pressure
- 9 Aug 2003street pressure
- 18 May 2003street pressure
- 13 Apr 2003street pressure
- 2003election
- 5 Oct 2002street pressure
- 14 Sep 2002street pressure
- 1 Jul 2001external support
- 19 Nov 2000street pressure
- 29 Sep 1998street pressure
- 15 Aug 1998street pressure
- 1998election
- 1 Dec 1996external support
- 1996currency stress
- 1996election
- 1 Nov 1995external support
- Mar 1995conflict escalation
- 1995currency stress
- 1995election
- Jan 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- 1994sovereign stress
- Dec 1993conflict escalation
- Jul 1993conflict escalation
- 18 Jun 1993leadership break
- Jun 1993conflict escalation
- 7 Mar 1993street pressure
- Feb 1993conflict escalation
- 1993currency stress
- 1993election
- 18 May 1992leadership break
- 15 May 1992street pressure
- Feb 1992conflict escalation
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- 1992election
- 24 Nov 1991street pressure
- 26 Oct 1991street pressure
- 1991currency stress
- 1991election
- 1990election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 70.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 61.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1990 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 59.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 58.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2002 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 73.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 56.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 54.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2008 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 53.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2010 | 48.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2011 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 48.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2014 | 62.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 62.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 47.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2020 | 92.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 64.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 55.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 55.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.0 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Bhutan, 2011
Details
LBN, 2012
Published archive distance 0.3379. This similarity is not a forecast.
CYP, 1980
Published archive distance 0.3388. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 2 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics89%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 2 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events48%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 64.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Azerbaijan in this snapshot
Azerbaijan (AZE) records Calm pressure at 54.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 64.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 48 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Azerbaijan has pressure score 54/100 in Calm. 90 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 14 share this score. Its competition rank is 91. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Tunisia (TUN), 55/100, higher by 1; Belarus (BLR), 54/100, tied.
Azerbaijan's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 84). The lowest is 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 59.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973-1973 | 1 | 82.3 | 82.3 | 82.3 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 74.5 | 61.3 | 81.9 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 84 | 62.3 | 95 | 7 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 62.1 | 53.8 | 73 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 59.2 | 47.5 | 74.7 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 65.8 | 55.5 | 92.9 | 1 |
Across 47 annual readings (1973-2025), Azerbaijan's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1992-1995; the minimum is 47.5 in 2019.
Azerbaijan is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 42 of 47 readings: 1973, 1980-2006, 2008, 2011-2012, 2014-2018, 2020-2025. The remaining 5 are below 55.
Azerbaijan is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 25 of 47 readings: 1973, 1980-1988, 1990-1998, 2002-2005, 2016, 2020. The remaining 22 are below 65.
Azerbaijan is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 10 of 47 readings: 1973, 1980, 1990-1995, 1997, 2020. The remaining 37 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Azerbaijan is 2020 to 2021: Crisis (92.9) to Watch (62.7). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Azerbaijan records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.