RUS, 2002
Published archive distance 0.2662. This similarity is not a forecast.
AGO
Angola
Angola has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
55 / 100
#73 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Angola in November or December 2026: 1.5% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Angola in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Angola, or with Angola as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 1.5% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population39M39,040,039 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalLuandaLuanda
Area1.2M km²1246700
GDP$122.2B (2025)122.2 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyAOAAOA , Angolan kwanza
LanguagesPortuguesePortuguese
Armed forces117k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 92.3 (1990s); lowest 68.1 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 81 · Country record
- 2019currency stress
- 1 Dec 2018external support
- 2018currency stress
- 2016currency stress
- 2015currency stress
- 1 Nov 2009external support
- 1 Jan 2007capital controls
- 31 Jan 2005street pressure
- 2 Mar 2004street pressure
- Jan 2004conflict escalation
- Jun 2003conflict escalation
- 2003currency stress
Show all 81
- Nov 2002conflict escalation
- Jan 2002conflict escalation
- 2002currency stress
- Sep 2001conflict escalation
- May 2001conflict escalation
- Jan 2001conflict escalation
- 2001currency stress
- Aug 2000conflict escalation
- Jul 2000conflict escalation
- Jan 2000conflict escalation
- 2000currency stress
- 1999currency stress
- Dec 1998conflict escalation
- Oct 1998conflict escalation
- Aug 1998conflict escalation
- Jan 1998conflict escalation
- 1998currency stress
- Jan 1997conflict escalation
- 1997currency stress
- 1996currency stress
- 1995currency stress
- Oct 1994conflict escalation
- Jun 1994conflict escalation
- May 1994conflict escalation
- Feb 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- 15 Sep 1993new sanctions
- Jul 1993conflict escalation
- Jun 1993conflict escalation
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- 1993currency stress
- Oct 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- 1992election
- Mar 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- Oct 1990conflict escalation
- Jan 1990conflict escalation
- Sep 1989conflict escalation
- Aug 1989conflict escalation
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987sovereign stress
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 1963conflict escalation
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 67.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 89.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 86.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 88.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 92.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 86.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 66.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 63.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 73.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 80.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 60.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Russian Federation, 2002
Details
COL, 2012
Published archive distance 0.3004. This similarity is not a forecast.
UZB, 2014
Published archive distance 0.3013. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 2 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 5 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events62%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 67.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Angola in this snapshot
Angola (AGO) records Watch pressure at 55.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 67.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Angola has pressure score 55/100 in Watch. 72 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 18 share this score. Its competition rank is 73. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Taiwan, Province of China (TWN), 56/100, higher by 1; Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), 55/100, tied.
Angola's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 92.3). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 68.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 90.2 | 75.7 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 75.7 | 75.7 | 75.7 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 74.6 | 65 | 89.6 | 2 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 82.7 | 67.4 | 95 | 5 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 87.8 | 84.6 | 95 | 10 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 92.3 | 86.2 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 82.2 | 66.6 | 95 | 7 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 72.6 | 63.4 | 88.5 | 3 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 68.1 | 60.7 | 80.5 | 1 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Angola's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1975-1976, 1978, 1981, 1990, 1992-1994, 1998-2001; the minimum is 60.7 in 2025.
Every published year for Angola, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Angola is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 73 of 80 readings: 1946-2012, 2016-2020, 2022. The remaining 7 are below 65.
Angola is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 41 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1961-1962, 1975-2004, 2007, 2009, 2016-2017, 2019-2020. The remaining 39 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Angola is 2022 to 2023: Strain (76.7) to Watch (62.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Angola records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.