CassandrIA
BRNBrunei Darussalam flag

Brunei Darussalam

Brunei Darussalam has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

15 / 100

#187 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Brunei in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Brunei in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Brunei, or with Brunei as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population466.3k
CapitalBandar Seri Begawan
Area5.8k km²
GDP$15B (2025)
CurrencyBND
LanguagesMalay
Armed forces8k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
50
L3 Politics
64
L4 Events
17
L5 Information
68.01
L6 Society
40

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 63.3 (2000s); lowest 15 (1970s).

Details

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Brunei Darussalam · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
196277.4Strainarchive reading
196715Calmarchive reading
196815Calmarchive reading
196915Calmarchive reading
197015Calmarchive reading
197115Calmarchive reading
197215Calmarchive reading
197315Calmarchive reading
197415Calmarchive reading
197515Calmarchive reading
197615Calmarchive reading
197715Calmarchive reading
197815Calmarchive reading
197915Calmarchive reading
198064.2Watcharchive reading
198164.2Watcharchive reading
198215Calmarchive reading
198315Calmarchive reading
198415Calmarchive reading
198564.2Watcharchive reading
198664.2Watcharchive reading
198715Calmarchive reading
198864.2Watcharchive reading
198915Calmarchive reading
199015Calmarchive reading
199115Calmarchive reading
199215Calmarchive reading
199360.0Watcharchive reading
199460.0Watcharchive reading
199560.0Watcharchive reading
199660.0Watcharchive reading
199776.7Strainarchive reading
199876.7Strainarchive reading
199960.0Watcharchive reading
200060.0Watcharchive reading
200160.0Watcharchive reading
200260.0Watcharchive reading
200360.0Watcharchive reading
200460.0Watcharchive reading
200560.0Watcharchive reading
200660.0Watcharchive reading
200760.0Watcharchive reading
200876.7Strainarchive reading
200976.7Strainarchive reading
201060.0Watcharchive reading
201160.0Watcharchive reading
201260.0Watcharchive reading
201376.7Strainarchive reading
201476.7Strainarchive reading
201576.7Strainarchive reading
201662.1Watcharchive reading
201715Calmarchive reading
201815Calmarchive reading
201915Calmarchive reading
202015Calmarchive reading
202126.5Calmarchive reading
202226.8Calmarchive reading
202315Calmarchive reading
202415Calmarchive reading
202515Calmarchive reading
Brunei Darussalam · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202615Calmarchive reading

Last cycles

Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Brunei Darussalam
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-170Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-143Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z1Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy71%
L3 Politics79%
L4 Events48%
L5 Information87%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 67.4

Brunei Darussalam in this snapshot

Brunei Darussalam (BRN) records Calm pressure at 15.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 67.4.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 61 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Brunei Darussalam has pressure score 15/100 in Calm. 186 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 20 share this score. Its competition rank is 187. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Bermuda (BMU), 15/100, tied; Cayman Islands (CYM), 15/100, tied.

Brunei Darussalam's highest decade mean is recorded in 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 63.3). The lowest is 1970-1979 (10 readings, mean 15). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Brunei Darussalam: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1962-1969430.61577.40
1970-1979101515150
1980-19891039.61564.20
1990-19991049.81576.70
2000-20091063.36076.70
2010-20191051.71576.70
2020-2025618.91526.80

Across 60 annual readings (1962-2025), Brunei Darussalam's mapped-score peak is 77.4 in 1962; the minimum is 15 in 1967-1979, 1982-1984, 1987, 1989-1992, 2017-2020, 2023-2025.

Brunei Darussalam is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 30 of 60 readings: 1962, 1980-1981, 1985-1986, 1988, 1993-2016. The remaining 30 are below 55.

Brunei Darussalam is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 8 of 60 readings: 1962, 1997-1998, 2008-2009, 2013-2015. The remaining 52 are below 65.

Brunei Darussalam never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 60 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Brunei Darussalam is 2016 to 2017: Watch (62.1) to Calm (15). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Brunei Darussalam records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts