CassandrIA
CANCanada flag

Canada

Canada has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

42 / 100

#121 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Canada in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Canada in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Canada, or with Canada as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population41.7M
CapitalOttawa
Area10M km²
GDP$2.3T (2025)
CurrencyCAD
LanguagesEnglish, French
Armed forces72k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
35.78
L3 Politics
21.43
L4 Events
22
L5 Information
11.98
L6 Society
21.67

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 50.4 (1946-1949); lowest 19.7 (1970s).

Details

Recorded events 8 · Country record

  • 14 Feb 2022state of emergency
  • 13 May 2009street pressure
  • 3 Mar 2005street pressure
  • 19 Nov 1997street pressure
  • 28 Oct 1997street pressure
  • 1 Sep 1994street pressure
  • 16 May 1993street pressure
  • 10 Sep 1991street pressure

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Canada · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194651.6Calmarchive reading
194750.8Calmarchive reading
194850.8Calmarchive reading
194948.2Calmarchive reading
195046.9Calmarchive reading
195133.6Calmarchive reading
195232.8Calmarchive reading
195332.5Calmarchive reading
195457.0Watcharchive reading
195531.9Calmarchive reading
195630.6Calmarchive reading
195730.7Calmarchive reading
195830.7Calmarchive reading
195930.4Calmarchive reading
196030.6Calmarchive reading
196130.4Calmarchive reading
196228.7Calmarchive reading
196327.9Calmarchive reading
196427.2Calmarchive reading
196525.8Calmarchive reading
196624.1Calmarchive reading
196723.1Calmarchive reading
196821.9Calmarchive reading
196921.0Calmarchive reading
197019.6Calmarchive reading
197119.5Calmarchive reading
197219.5Calmarchive reading
197319.4Calmarchive reading
197420.2Calmarchive reading
197520.2Calmarchive reading
197620.7Calmarchive reading
197719.4Calmarchive reading
197819.3Calmarchive reading
197919.3Calmarchive reading
198019.3Calmarchive reading
198119.2Calmarchive reading
198253.3Calmarchive reading
198319.4Calmarchive reading
198419.1Calmarchive reading
198519.1Calmarchive reading
198619.1Calmarchive reading
198719.1Calmarchive reading
198819.0Calmarchive reading
198919.4Calmarchive reading
199030.1Calmarchive reading
199153.1Calmarchive reading
199224.7Calmarchive reading
199319.1Calmarchive reading
199418.2Calmarchive reading
199524.0Calmarchive reading
199618.1Calmarchive reading
199718.3Calmarchive reading
199820.8Calmarchive reading
199919.9Calmarchive reading
200028.3Calmarchive reading
200118.4Calmarchive reading
200220.4Calmarchive reading
200325.8Calmarchive reading
200419.8Calmarchive reading
200524.3Calmarchive reading
200624.1Calmarchive reading
200718.7Calmarchive reading
200824.1Calmarchive reading
200955.8Watcharchive reading
201024.9Calmarchive reading
201121.0Calmarchive reading
201226.4Calmarchive reading
201319.4Calmarchive reading
201418.1Calmarchive reading
201518.5Calmarchive reading
201618.0Calmarchive reading
201718.2Calmarchive reading
201818.2Calmarchive reading
201916.5Calmarchive reading
202035.8Calmarchive reading
202117.1Calmarchive reading
202217.7Calmarchive reading
202320.7Calmarchive reading
202419.1Calmarchive reading
202521.0Calmarchive reading
Canada · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202642Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Austria, 2006

Details
Austria, 2006Denmark, 1999Norway, 2007

AUT, 2006

Published archive distance 0.1278. This similarity is not a forecast.

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.1496. This similarity is not a forecast.

NOR, 2007

Published archive distance 0.2314. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Canada
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy53%
L3 Politics57%
L4 Events30%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 55.7

Canada in this snapshot

Canada (CAN) records Calm pressure at 42.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 55.7.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Canada has pressure score 42/100 in Calm. 120 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 121. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Vanuatu (VUT), 42.6/100, higher by 0.6; Armenia (ARM), 40.1/100, lower by 1.9.

Canada's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 50.4). The lowest is 1970-1979 (10 readings, mean 19.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Canada: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949450.448.251.60
1950-19591035.730.4570
1960-19691026.12130.60
1970-19791019.719.320.70
1980-19891022.61953.30
1990-19991024.618.153.10
2000-2009102618.455.80
2010-20191019.916.526.40
2020-2025621.917.135.80

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Canada's mapped-score peak is 57 in 1954; the minimum is 16.5 in 2019.

Canada is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 2 of 80 readings: 1954, 2009. The remaining 78 are below 55.

Canada never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Canada never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Canada is 2009 to 2010: Watch (55.8) to Calm (24.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Canada records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts