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Netherlands

Netherlands has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

36 / 100

#127 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in the Netherlands in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in the Netherlands in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Netherlands, or with the Netherlands as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population18.1M
CapitalAmsterdam
Area41.9k km²
GDP$1.3T (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesDutch
Armed forces41k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
23.85
L3 Politics
17.88
L4 Events
9
L5 Information
8.44
L6 Society
57

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 64 (1946-1949); lowest 21.5 (1990s).

Details

Recorded events 2 · Country record

  • 1981currency stress
  • 1 Jan 1971capital controls

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Netherlands · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194667.8Strainarchive reading
194765.9Strainarchive reading
194864.2Watcharchive reading
194957.9Watcharchive reading
195057.2Watcharchive reading
195150.5Calmarchive reading
195250.2Calmarchive reading
195348.4Calmarchive reading
195446.5Calmarchive reading
195544.2Calmarchive reading
195641.3Calmarchive reading
195740.4Calmarchive reading
195859.0Watcharchive reading
195939.2Calmarchive reading
196036.3Calmarchive reading
196136.2Calmarchive reading
196256.7Watcharchive reading
196334.0Calmarchive reading
196432.5Calmarchive reading
196531.2Calmarchive reading
196629.6Calmarchive reading
196728.1Calmarchive reading
196826.8Calmarchive reading
196925.8Calmarchive reading
197025.6Calmarchive reading
197125.5Calmarchive reading
197224.9Calmarchive reading
197324.6Calmarchive reading
197424.4Calmarchive reading
197524.3Calmarchive reading
197623.7Calmarchive reading
197723.7Calmarchive reading
197823.1Calmarchive reading
197922.9Calmarchive reading
198022.5Calmarchive reading
198155.2Watcharchive reading
198255.2Watcharchive reading
198322.1Calmarchive reading
198422.1Calmarchive reading
198522.0Calmarchive reading
198621.9Calmarchive reading
198721.7Calmarchive reading
198821.6Calmarchive reading
198921.2Calmarchive reading
199019.8Calmarchive reading
199121.0Calmarchive reading
199221.0Calmarchive reading
199320.9Calmarchive reading
199420.9Calmarchive reading
199520.8Calmarchive reading
199620.8Calmarchive reading
199727.0Calmarchive reading
199822.6Calmarchive reading
199920.4Calmarchive reading
200020.3Calmarchive reading
200125.6Calmarchive reading
200222.4Calmarchive reading
200320.1Calmarchive reading
200420.0Calmarchive reading
200520.0Calmarchive reading
200619.9Calmarchive reading
200719.9Calmarchive reading
200836.0Calmarchive reading
200953.5Calmarchive reading
201019.7Calmarchive reading
201119.6Calmarchive reading
201253.3Calmarchive reading
201353.3Calmarchive reading
201419.5Calmarchive reading
201518.3Calmarchive reading
201619.9Calmarchive reading
201720.0Calmarchive reading
201820.3Calmarchive reading
201919.4Calmarchive reading
202034.3Calmarchive reading
202120.1Calmarchive reading
202220.7Calmarchive reading
202324.4Calmarchive reading
202429.0Calmarchive reading
202522.5Calmarchive reading
Netherlands · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202636Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Denmark, 1999

Details
Denmark, 1999Austria, 2006Canada, 2006

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.149. This similarity is not a forecast.

AUT, 2006

Published archive distance 0.192. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 2006

Published archive distance 0.2094. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Netherlands
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics49%
L4 Events30%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society57%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 55.1

Netherlands in this snapshot

Netherlands (NLD) records Calm pressure at 36.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 55.1.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Netherlands has pressure score 36/100 in Calm. 126 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 127. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Austria (AUT), 36/100, tied; Mongolia (MNG), 35.7/100, lower by 0.3.

Netherlands's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 64). The lowest is 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 21.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Netherlands: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-194946457.967.80
1950-19591047.739.2590
1960-19691033.725.856.70
1970-19791024.322.925.60
1980-19891028.621.255.20
1990-19991021.519.8270
2000-20091025.819.953.50
2010-20191026.318.353.30
2020-2025625.220.134.30

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Netherlands's mapped-score peak is 67.8 in 1946; the minimum is 18.3 in 2015.

Netherlands is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 9 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1958, 1962, 1981-1982. The remaining 71 are below 55.

Netherlands is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 2 of 80 readings: 1946-1947. The remaining 78 are below 65.

Netherlands never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Netherlands is 1982 to 1983: Watch (55.2) to Calm (22.1). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Netherlands records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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