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Ireland

Ireland has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

18.1 / 100

#179 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Ireland in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Ireland in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ireland, or with Ireland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population5.5M
CapitalDublin
Area70.3k km²
GDP$721.7B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesEnglish, Irish
Armed forces9k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
13
L3 Politics
8
L4 Events
9.3
L5 Information
8.37
L6 Society
55.5

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 59.4 (1946-1949); lowest 18.9 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 39 · Country record

  • 2025election
  • 15 Mar 2019street pressure
  • 3 Oct 2018street pressure
  • 2018election
  • 30 Sep 2017street pressure
  • 19 Oct 2016street pressure
  • 24 Sep 2016street pressure
  • 20 Feb 2016street pressure
  • 29 Aug 2015street pressure
  • 18 Apr 2015street pressure
  • 21 Mar 2015street pressure
  • 31 Jan 2015street pressure
Show all 39
  • 10 Dec 2014street pressure
  • 1 Nov 2014street pressure
  • 11 Oct 2014street pressure
  • 11 Mar 2014street pressure
  • 17 Feb 2014street pressure
  • 8 Jun 2013street pressure
  • 9 Feb 2013street pressure
  • 2013sovereign stress
  • 2011election
  • 1 Dec 2010external support
  • 3 Nov 2010street pressure
  • 4 Feb 2009street pressure
  • 9 Dec 2005street pressure
  • 3 Nov 2005street pressure
  • 30 Jun 2005street pressure
  • 25 Jun 2004street pressure
  • 29 Nov 2003street pressure
  • 29 Mar 2003street pressure
  • 15 Feb 2003street pressure
  • 1997election
  • 17 Nov 1994street pressure
  • 1990election
  • 1981currency stress
  • 1976currency stress
  • 1973election
  • 1966election
  • 1959election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Ireland · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194660.0Watcharchive reading
194759.9Watcharchive reading
194859.5Watcharchive reading
194958.0Watcharchive reading
195057.8Watcharchive reading
195146.7Calmarchive reading
195260.6Watcharchive reading
195345.6Calmarchive reading
195445.0Calmarchive reading
195544.4Calmarchive reading
195660.1Watcharchive reading
195760.1Watcharchive reading
195860.1Watcharchive reading
195943.5Calmarchive reading
196042.6Calmarchive reading
196141.8Calmarchive reading
196241.4Calmarchive reading
196340.7Calmarchive reading
196440.2Calmarchive reading
196539.9Calmarchive reading
196639.8Calmarchive reading
196739.0Calmarchive reading
196837.1Calmarchive reading
196936.1Calmarchive reading
197057.8Watcharchive reading
197143.9Calmarchive reading
197233.3Calmarchive reading
197333.0Calmarchive reading
197432.2Calmarchive reading
197531.2Calmarchive reading
197631.2Calmarchive reading
197729.5Calmarchive reading
197827.7Calmarchive reading
197927.5Calmarchive reading
198049.2Calmarchive reading
198148.7Calmarchive reading
198248.4Calmarchive reading
198361.1Watcharchive reading
198447.3Calmarchive reading
198522.5Calmarchive reading
198655.3Watcharchive reading
198720.8Calmarchive reading
198820.2Calmarchive reading
198920.0Calmarchive reading
199045.1Calmarchive reading
199145.1Calmarchive reading
199255.2Watcharchive reading
199345.0Calmarchive reading
199455.2Watcharchive reading
199519.7Calmarchive reading
199625.1Calmarchive reading
199725.0Calmarchive reading
199819.6Calmarchive reading
199925.0Calmarchive reading
200019.5Calmarchive reading
200119.5Calmarchive reading
200219.4Calmarchive reading
200319.9Calmarchive reading
200425.2Calmarchive reading
200519.5Calmarchive reading
200624.7Calmarchive reading
200735.5Calmarchive reading
200858.1Watcharchive reading
200953.0Calmarchive reading
201024.6Calmarchive reading
201119.1Calmarchive reading
201219.0Calmarchive reading
201355.4Watcharchive reading
201435.3Calmarchive reading
201529.9Calmarchive reading
201632.8Calmarchive reading
201720.6Calmarchive reading
201821.0Calmarchive reading
201916.3Calmarchive reading
202016.3Calmarchive reading
202116.6Calmarchive reading
202216.6Calmarchive reading
202328.3Calmarchive reading
202417.5Calmarchive reading
202518.1Calmarchive reading
Ireland · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202618.1Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Austria, 2003

Details
Austria, 2003Switzerland, 2006Norway, 2004

AUT, 2003

Published archive distance 0.0668. This similarity is not a forecast.

CHE, 2006

Published archive distance 0.1075. This similarity is not a forecast.

NOR, 2004

Published archive distance 0.1281. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Ireland
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-145Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z2Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics100%
L4 Events42%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 64.6

Ireland in this snapshot

Ireland (IRL) records Calm pressure at 18.1 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 64.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Ireland has pressure score 18.1/100 in Calm. 178 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 179. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Seychelles (SYC), 18.3/100, higher by 0.2; Belgium (BEL), 18/100, lower by 0.1.

Ireland's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 59.4). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 18.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Ireland: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949459.458600
1950-19591052.443.560.60
1960-19691039.936.142.60
1970-19791034.727.557.80
1980-19891039.42061.10
1990-1999103619.655.20
2000-20091029.419.458.10
2010-20191027.416.355.40
2020-2025618.916.328.30

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Ireland's mapped-score peak is 61.1 in 1983; the minimum is 16.3 in 2019-2020.

Ireland is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 16 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1952, 1956-1958, 1970, 1983, 1986, 1992, 1994, 2008, 2013. The remaining 64 are below 55.

Ireland never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Ireland never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Ireland is 2013 to 2014: Watch (55.4) to Calm (35.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Ireland records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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