HTI, 1978
Published archive distance 0.1692. This similarity is not a forecast.
KEN
Kenya
Kenya has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
55 / 100
#73 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Kenya in November or December 2026: 20% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Kenya in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kenya, or with Kenya as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 20% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Precision correction for the 22 October 2026 forecasts
Population57.5M57,532,493 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalNairobiNairobi
Area580.4k km²580367
GDP$135.9B (2025)135.9 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyKESKES , Kenyan shilling (Sh)
LanguagesEnglish, SwahiliEnglish, Swahili
Armed forces24k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 88.2 (1946-1949); lowest 73 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 87 · Country record
- 25 Jun 2024street pressure
- Aug 2023conflict escalation
- Jun 2023conflict escalation
- Jan 2022conflict escalation
- 2022election
- Dec 2021conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 2021external support
- Mar 2020conflict escalation
- Jan 2020conflict escalation
- Feb 2019conflict escalation
- Jan 2019conflict escalation
- 9 Aug 2017street pressure
Show all 87
- May 2017conflict escalation
- 2017election
- Jun 2016conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2016external support
- Apr 2015conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 2015external support
- Nov 2014conflict escalation
- Jun 2014conflict escalation
- May 2014conflict escalation
- Sep 2013conflict escalation
- Jun 2013conflict escalation
- May 2013conflict escalation
- 2013election
- Aug 2012conflict escalation
- Jul 2012conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2012street pressure
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2011external support
- Sep 2009conflict escalation
- Aug 2009conflict escalation
- Mar 2009conflict escalation
- Jul 2008conflict escalation
- 3 Jan 2008street pressure
- Jan 2008conflict escalation
- Dec 2007conflict escalation
- 2007election
- Dec 2006conflict escalation
- Jul 2005conflict escalation
- Jan 2005conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 2003external support
- 2002election
- Dec 2001conflict escalation
- Mar 2001conflict escalation
- Feb 2001conflict escalation
- 1 Aug 2000external support
- Jun 2000conflict escalation
- Feb 2000conflict escalation
- Jul 1999conflict escalation
- Mar 1999conflict escalation
- Oct 1998conflict escalation
- Jan 1998conflict escalation
- Nov 1997conflict escalation
- Mar 1997conflict escalation
- 1997election
- Dec 1996conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 1996external support
- 1 Dec 1993external support
- 1993currency stress
- Apr 1992conflict escalation
- Mar 1992conflict escalation
- 18 Jan 1992street pressure
- 1 Jan 1992capital controls
- 1992election
- 1 May 1991external support
- 1991currency stress
- 1988election
- 1983currency stress
- 1983election
- 1982currency stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981currency stress
- 1 Feb 1980external support
- 1979election
- 1 Mar 1977external support
- 1975sovereign stress
- 1974election
- 1972sovereign stress
- 1970sovereign stress
- 1969election
- 1956election
- 1956conflict escalation
- 1955conflict escalation
- 1954conflict escalation
- 1953conflict escalation
- 1952conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 94.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 93.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 93.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 73.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 72.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 71.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 79.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 77.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 69.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 80.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 73.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 77.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 69.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 85.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 91.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 81.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 82.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 77.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 61.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Haiti, 1978
Details
THA, 1984
Published archive distance 0.1813. This similarity is not a forecast.
BGR, 1973
Published archive distance 0.1888. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 5 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy53%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 6 of 8; Inferred: 2 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 67.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Kenya in this snapshot
Kenya (KEN) records Watch pressure at 55.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 67.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Kenya has pressure score 55/100 in Watch. 72 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 18 share this score. Its competition rank is 73. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Guinea (GIN), 55/100, tied; Lao People's Democratic Republic (LAO), 55/100, tied.
Kenya's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 88.2). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 73). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 88.2 | 67.7 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 86.4 | 72.3 | 95 | 7 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 74.2 | 70.5 | 89.8 | 1 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 79.4 | 67.7 | 95 | 2 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 76.8 | 69.1 | 78.3 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 73.9 | 66.9 | 81 | 3 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 76.3 | 69.6 | 95 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 81.3 | 69 | 91.4 | 8 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 73 | 61.4 | 79.5 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Kenya's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1953, 1970, 2008; the minimum is 61.4 in 2025.
Every published year for Kenya, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Kenya is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2024. The remaining 1 are below 65.
Kenya is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 25 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950, 1952-1956, 1959, 1961, 1970, 1975, 1992, 1997-1998, 2008, 2010, 2012-2013, 2015-2019. The remaining 55 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Kenya is 2024 to 2025: Strain (66.8) to Watch (61.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Kenya records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.