chokepoint
Strait of Hormuz: energy transit
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a shipping lane.
Point score: 71.2 high · upward pressure
Iran
armed conflict activity · information disruption
IRN
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Iran, Islamic Republic of has a Crisis pressure reading, among the highest scores.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
88 / 100
#2 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Iran in November or December 2026: 27% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Iran in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Iran, or with Iran as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 27% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population92.4M92,417,681 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalTehranTehran · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area1.6M km²1648195 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$362.7B (2025)3.62682e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyIRRIRR · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesPersian (Farsi)Persian (Farsi) · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces650k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 92.2 (1980s); lowest 64.9 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 105 · Country record
- 8 Jul 2026conflict escalation
- 15 Jun 2026ceasefire
- 7 Apr 2026ceasefire
- 28 Feb 2026conflict escalation
- 28 Feb 2026leadership break
- Jun 2025conflict escalation
- Nov 2024conflict escalation
- Oct 2024conflict escalation
- Jan 2024conflict escalation
- 2024election
- 16 Sep 2022street pressure
- Sep 2022conflict escalation
Show all 105
- 2021election
- May 2020conflict escalation
- 2020election
- Nov 2019conflict escalation
- 5 Nov 2018new sanctions
- Jul 2018conflict escalation
- 2018currency stress
- Jun 2017conflict escalation
- 2017election
- Jun 2016conflict escalation
- 2016sovereign stress
- 2016election
- 2014currency stress
- 4 Nov 2013street pressure
- 2013currency stress
- 2013sovereign stress
- 2013election
- 2012election
- Jul 2011conflict escalation
- 14 Feb 2011street pressure
- Dec 2010conflict escalation
- Jul 2010conflict escalation
- 2010sovereign stress
- 21 Dec 2009street pressure
- 4 Nov 2009street pressure
- Oct 2009conflict escalation
- 18 Sep 2009street pressure
- 15 Jun 2009street pressure
- Apr 2009conflict escalation
- 2009election
- Dec 2008conflict escalation
- 2008election
- Feb 2007conflict escalation
- 23 Dec 2006new sanctions
- Mar 2006conflict escalation
- Jul 2005conflict escalation
- 2005election
- 2004election
- Apr 2001conflict escalation
- 2001election
- 2000currency stress
- 2000election
- 10 Jul 1999street pressure
- 1999currency stress
- 23 May 1998street pressure
- 1997currency stress
- 1997election
- 5 Aug 1996new sanctions
- 1996currency stress
- 1996election
- 1995currency stress
- 3 Aug 1994street pressure
- 1994currency stress
- Sep 1993conflict escalation
- 1993currency stress
- 1993election
- 1992currency stress
- 1992election
- 7 Jul 1991street pressure
- 1991currency stress
- 1990currency stress
- 1989currency stress
- 1989election
- 1988election
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985currency stress
- 1985election
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984election
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981election
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980sovereign stress
- 1980election
- 1980conflict escalation
- 14 Nov 1979new sanctions
- 16 Jan 1979leadership break
- 1979election
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967election
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1959currency stress
- 1958currency stress
- 19 Aug 1953leadership break
- 30 Apr 1951leadership break
- 1946conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 65.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 84.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 59.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 58.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1975 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 56.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 68.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 86.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 65.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 55.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2003 | 57.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 72.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 80.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 63.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 53.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2015 | 62.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 88.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88 | Crisis | estimated |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
3 points · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Crude oil: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 11.1 low · upward pressure
India · Iran · Nigeria · Mexico · Russia · China · Venezuela
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
supply
Urea and ammonia: production capacity
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 7.1 low · upward pressure
Iran
armed conflict activity · information disruption
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Egypt, 1974
Details
EGY, 1974
Published archive distance 0.2362. This similarity is not a forecast.
PRY, 1990
Published archive distance 0.256. This similarity is not a forecast.
GIN, 1991
Published archive distance 0.2739. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy45%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 6 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 2 of 8
L3 Politics57%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 5 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 1 of 7
L4 Events36%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society40%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 4 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 2 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 50.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Iran, Islamic Republic of in this snapshot
Iran, Islamic Republic of (IRN) records Crisis pressure at 88.0 of 100 and touches 3 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 50.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 3 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Iran, Islamic Republic of has pressure score 88/100 in Crisis. 1 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 2. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Ukraine (UKR), 92/100, higher by 4; Sudan (SDN), 88/100, tied.
Iran, Islamic Republic of's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 92.2). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 64.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 78.2 | 65.6 | 83.5 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 82.6 | 66.3 | 95 | 6 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 64.9 | 61 | 67.5 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 67.2 | 56.6 | 95 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 92.2 | 74.4 | 95 | 9 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 76.4 | 65.5 | 86 | 5 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 68.4 | 55.6 | 82.3 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 74.3 | 53.5 | 94.8 | 3 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 78.4 | 66.3 | 88.2 | 1 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Iran, Islamic Republic of's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1953-1955, 1979-1984, 1986-1988; the minimum is 53.5 in 2014.
Iran, Islamic Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2013, 2015-2025. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Iran, Islamic Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 64 of 80 readings: 1946-1961, 1966-1968, 1970, 1975, 1977-2001, 2005-2011, 2013, 2016-2025. The remaining 16 are below 65.
Iran, Islamic Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 29 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1951-1956, 1979-1988, 1990-1991, 1993, 1997, 1999, 2009, 2011, 2018-2019, 2025. The remaining 51 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Iran, Islamic Republic of is 2024 to 2025: Strain (66.3) to Crisis (88.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Iran, Islamic Republic of records 1 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.