HUN, 1981
Published archive distance 0.1989. This similarity is not a forecast.
DZA
Algeria
Algeria has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
47.8 / 100
#112 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Algeria in November or December 2026: 4.8% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Algeria in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Algeria, or with Algeria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 4.8% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population47.4M47,435,312 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalAlgiersAlgiers
Area2.4M km²2381741
GDP$287B (2025)287.0 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyDZDDZD , Algerian dinar
LanguagesArabicArabic
Armed forces326k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 90.8 (1990s); lowest 52.8 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 75 · Country record
- 2024election
- 2019election
- May 2015conflict escalation
- 2015currency stress
- Jan 2014conflict escalation
- 2014election
- Aug 2013conflict escalation
- Jan 2013conflict escalation
- Feb 2012conflict escalation
- Apr 2011conflict escalation
- 12 Feb 2011street pressure
- Jun 2010conflict escalation
Show all 75
- Feb 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- 2009election
- Aug 2008conflict escalation
- Sep 2007conflict escalation
- Mar 2007conflict escalation
- Nov 2006conflict escalation
- Oct 2006conflict escalation
- Apr 2006conflict escalation
- Mar 2004conflict escalation
- 2004election
- May 2003conflict escalation
- Jan 2003conflict escalation
- Feb 2002conflict escalation
- Jan 2002conflict escalation
- Oct 2001conflict escalation
- 14 Jun 2001street pressure
- 21 May 2001street pressure
- Dec 2000conflict escalation
- 1999election
- Sep 1997conflict escalation
- Feb 1997conflict escalation
- Dec 1996conflict escalation
- Jan 1996conflict escalation
- 1 May 1995external support
- Mar 1995conflict escalation
- 1995currency stress
- 1995election
- 1 May 1994external support
- Mar 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- 1 Jul 1993external support
- Mar 1993conflict escalation
- 2 Jan 1992street pressure
- Dec 1991conflict escalation
- 5 Jun 1991state of emergency
- 25 May 1991street pressure
- 1 May 1991external support
- 1991currency stress
- 10 May 1990street pressure
- 20 Apr 1990street pressure
- 1989currency stress
- 1989sovereign stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1988election
- 1986sovereign stress
- 1984election
- 1979election
- 1976sovereign stress
- 1976election
- 1 Jan 1972capital controls
- 1963election
- 1963conflict escalation
- 1962election
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
- 1960conflict escalation
- 1959conflict escalation
- 1958conflict escalation
- 1957conflict escalation
- 1956conflict escalation
- 1955conflict escalation
- 1954conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1951 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 60.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 59.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1975 | 58.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 68.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 68.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 66.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 82.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 86.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 94.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 93.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 93.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 93.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 88.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 73.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 78.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 73.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 73.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 68.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 48.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2022 | 53.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2023 | 48.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2024 | 48.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 47.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.8 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Hungary, 1981
Details
BTN, 2002
Published archive distance 0.2164. This similarity is not a forecast.
ITA, 1956
Published archive distance 0.2509. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 5 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics90%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 64.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Algeria in this snapshot
Algeria (DZA) records Calm pressure at 47.8 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 64.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Algeria has pressure score 47.8/100 in Calm. 111 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 112. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Greece (GRC), 48/100, higher by 0.2; Bulgaria (BGR), 47.4/100, lower by 0.4.
Algeria's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 90.8). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 52.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 76 | 60.6 | 81.2 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 77.7 | 60.6 | 95 | 5 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 75.1 | 62.1 | 95 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 64.5 | 58.9 | 74 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 73.9 | 66.5 | 89.5 | 2 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 90.8 | 71.5 | 95 | 9 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 79.3 | 74.5 | 88.9 | 3 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 73.5 | 68.8 | 78.7 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 52.8 | 47.8 | 69.7 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Algeria's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1957-1961, 1991, 1993-1994; the minimum is 47.8 in 2025.
Algeria is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 75 of 80 readings: 1946-2020. The remaining 5 are below 55.
Algeria is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 61 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1954-1963, 1966-1967, 1971, 1976-2020. The remaining 19 are below 65.
Algeria is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 26 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1955-1962, 1966, 1987, 1989, 1991-2002. The remaining 54 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Algeria is 2020 to 2021: Strain (69.7) to Calm (48.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Algeria records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.