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VENVenezuela, Bolivarian Republic of flag

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of has a Crisis pressure reading, in the highest quarter.

🔴 Crisis

80 / 100

#13 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Venezuela in November or December 2026: 16% · possible

Chance of a conflict escalation in Venezuela in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Venezuela, or with Venezuela as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
16% · possible
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population28.5M
CapitalCaracas
Area916.4k km²
GDP$99.7B (2025)
CurrencyVES
LanguagesSpanish
Armed forces343k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
90
L3 Politics
85.27
L4 Events
76
L5 Information
67.01
L6 Society
64

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 83.5 (1946-1949); lowest 53.6 (1970s).

Details

Recorded events 112 · Country record

  • 3 Jan 2026conflict escalation
  • 3 Jan 2026leadership break
  • 29 Jul 2024street pressure
  • 2024election
  • 28 Jan 2019new sanctions
  • 2019currency stress
  • 2018currency stress
  • 2018election
  • 24 Aug 2017new sanctions
  • 2017currency stress
  • 2017election
  • 15 Jan 2016state of emergency
Show all 112
  • 2016currency stress
  • 2015currency stress
  • 12 Feb 2014street pressure
  • 2014currency stress
  • 2013currency stress
  • 2013election
  • Aug 2012conflict escalation
  • 2012election
  • 2011currency stress
  • 23 Jan 2010street pressure
  • 2010currency stress
  • 5 Sep 2009street pressure
  • 1 May 2009street pressure
  • 7 Feb 2009street pressure
  • 1 Nov 2007street pressure
  • 23 Oct 2007street pressure
  • 29 Jun 2007street pressure
  • 19 May 2007street pressure
  • 10 Jul 2006street pressure
  • 22 Jan 2006street pressure
  • 2006election
  • 15 Jan 2005street pressure
  • 5 Jun 2004street pressure
  • 22 Apr 2004street pressure
  • 6 Mar 2004street pressure
  • 14 Feb 2004street pressure
  • 24 Jan 2004street pressure
  • 20 Aug 2003street pressure
  • 2003currency stress
  • 3 Dec 2002street pressure
  • 17 Nov 2002street pressure
  • 10 Oct 2002street pressure
  • 11 Jul 2002street pressure
  • 2 May 2002street pressure
  • 9 Apr 2002street pressure
  • 2002currency stress
  • 10 Dec 2001street pressure
  • 5 Mar 2001street pressure
  • 20 Feb 2001street pressure
  • 11 Oct 2000street pressure
  • 3 Mar 2000street pressure
  • 2000election
  • 7 Dec 1999street pressure
  • 15 Jun 1999street pressure
  • 1999election
  • 22 Jan 1998street pressure
  • 1998election
  • 9 Dec 1997street pressure
  • 19 Nov 1997street pressure
  • 1 May 1997street pressure
  • 15 Jan 1997street pressure
  • 19 Nov 1996street pressure
  • 28 Aug 1996street pressure
  • 1 Jul 1996external support
  • 11 Mar 1996street pressure
  • 1996currency stress
  • 10 Oct 1995street pressure
  • 1 May 1995street pressure
  • 4 Apr 1995street pressure
  • 1995currency stress
  • 19 May 1994street pressure
  • Jan 1994conflict escalation
  • 1994currency stress
  • 1993currency stress
  • 1993election
  • Nov 1992conflict escalation
  • 7 May 1992street pressure
  • Feb 1992conflict escalation
  • 28 Jan 1992street pressure
  • 1992currency stress
  • 1992sovereign stress
  • 4 Dec 1991street pressure
  • 7 Nov 1991street pressure
  • 16 Oct 1991street pressure
  • 12 Aug 1991street pressure
  • 1991currency stress
  • 9 Jul 1990street pressure
  • 1990currency stress
  • 1 Mar 1989external support
  • 1989currency stress
  • 1988election
  • 1987currency stress
  • 1984currency stress
  • 1983election
  • 1982conflict escalation
  • 1978sovereign stress
  • 1978election
  • 1973election
  • 1968election
  • 1964currency stress
  • 1963election
  • 1962conflict escalation
  • 1959currency stress
  • 23 Jan 1958leadership break
  • 1958election
  • 1952election
  • 13 Nov 1950leadership break
  • 24 Nov 1948leadership break
  • 1947election
  • 1946election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194683.7Crisisarchive reading
194783.5Crisisarchive reading
194881.9Crisisarchive reading
194985.1Crisisarchive reading
195080.7Crisisarchive reading
195172.2Strainarchive reading
195261.7Watcharchive reading
195361.5Watcharchive reading
195460.8Watcharchive reading
195560.2Watcharchive reading
195659.5Watcharchive reading
195758.6Watcharchive reading
195862.1Watcharchive reading
195959.2Watcharchive reading
196070.9Strainarchive reading
196158.0Watcharchive reading
196263.2Watcharchive reading
196356.6Watcharchive reading
196456.9Watcharchive reading
196556.1Watcharchive reading
196667.1Strainarchive reading
196755.2Watcharchive reading
196858.4Watcharchive reading
196957.1Watcharchive reading
197056.3Watcharchive reading
197155.8Watcharchive reading
197255.5Watcharchive reading
197354.3Calmarchive reading
197451.5Calmarchive reading
197548.9Calmarchive reading
197645.7Calmarchive reading
197743.1Calmarchive reading
197862.5Watcharchive reading
197962.5Watcharchive reading
198073.5Strainarchive reading
198173.4Strainarchive reading
198266.8Strainarchive reading
198374.0Strainarchive reading
198474.2Strainarchive reading
198563.4Watcharchive reading
198663.3Watcharchive reading
198763.1Watcharchive reading
198862.7Watcharchive reading
198966.7Strainarchive reading
199067.3Strainarchive reading
199156.0Watcharchive reading
199281.0Crisisarchive reading
199364.2Watcharchive reading
199476.1Strainarchive reading
199559.9Watcharchive reading
199671.2Strainarchive reading
199759.0Watcharchive reading
199860.0Watcharchive reading
199969.4Strainarchive reading
200063.7Watcharchive reading
200165.4Strainarchive reading
200272.0Strainarchive reading
200369.7Strainarchive reading
200462.2Watcharchive reading
200560.2Watcharchive reading
200661.6Watcharchive reading
200760.3Watcharchive reading
200859.5Watcharchive reading
200971.9Strainarchive reading
201069.8Strainarchive reading
201163.8Watcharchive reading
201262.4Watcharchive reading
201367.1Strainarchive reading
201486.2Crisisarchive reading
201576.2Strainarchive reading
201680.5Crisisarchive reading
201795.0Crisisarchive reading
201889.2Crisisarchive reading
201993.1Crisisarchive reading
202082.4Crisisarchive reading
202162.9Watcharchive reading
202263.2Watcharchive reading
202362.8Watcharchive reading
202454.6Calmarchive reading
202555.3Watcharchive reading
Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202680Crisisestimated

Pressure points

1 point · Pressure mostly rising

Point snapshot:

Details
supply

Crude oil: export supply

Point snapshot:

Country stress mapped to an export supply link.

Point score: 11.1 low · upward pressure

India · Iran · Nigeria · Mexico · Russia · China · Venezuela

armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Tajikistan, 2010

Details
Tajikistan, 2010Sierra Leone, 1967Ecuador, 1972

TJK, 2010

Published archive distance 0.2887. This similarity is not a forecast.

SLE, 1967

Published archive distance 0.3201. This similarity is not a forecast.

ECU, 1972

Published archive distance 0.3306. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-281Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy38%
L3 Politics60%
L4 Events42%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society57%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 4Confidence 52.9

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of in this snapshot

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of (VEN) records Crisis pressure at 80.0 of 100 and touches 1 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 52.9.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 1 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of has pressure score 80/100 in Crisis. 12 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 13. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Somalia (SOM), 82/100, higher by 2; Argentina (ARG), 78/100, lower by 2.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 83.5). The lowest is 1970-1979 (10 readings, mean 53.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949483.581.985.14
1950-19591063.658.680.71
1960-1969106055.270.90
1970-19791053.643.162.50
1980-19891068.162.774.20
1990-19991066.456811
2000-20091064.759.5720
2010-20191078.362.4955
2020-2025663.554.682.41

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of's mapped-score peak is 95 in 2017; the minimum is 43.1 in 1977.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 74 of 80 readings: 1946-1972, 1978-2023, 2025. The remaining 6 are below 55.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 32 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1960, 1966, 1980-1984, 1989-1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001-2003, 2009-2010, 2013-2020. The remaining 48 are below 65.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 12 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1992, 2014, 2016-2020. The remaining 68 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of is 2024 to 2025: Calm (54.6) to Watch (55.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of records 1 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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