supply
Sunflower oil: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 30.0 elevated · upward pressure
Ukraine
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure
UKR
Ukraine
Ukraine has a Crisis pressure reading, among the highest scores.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
92 / 100
#1 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Ukraine in November or December 2026: 9.4% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ukraine in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ukraine, or with Ukraine as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 9.4% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population39M38,980,376 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalKyivKyiv · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area603.5k km²603500 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$214.2B (2025)2.14233e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyUAHUAH · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesUkrainianUkrainian · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces298k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 82.6 (1990s); lowest 64.2 (2000s).
Details
Recorded events 67 · Country record
- Aug 2025conflict escalation
- Oct 2023conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2023external support
- 1 Jan 2023displacement surge
- Mar 2022conflict escalation
- 24 Feb 2022state of emergency
- Feb 2022conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2022displacement surge
- Jan 2022conflict escalation
- 2022sovereign stress
- Mar 2021conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 2020external support
Show all 67
- Feb 2019conflict escalation
- 2019election
- 1 Dec 2018external support
- Jan 2017conflict escalation
- Jun 2015conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2015external support
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- 2015currency stress
- Aug 2014conflict escalation
- Jul 2014conflict escalation
- 19 May 2014street pressure
- May 2014conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 2014external support
- Apr 2014conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2014street pressure
- Feb 2014conflict escalation
- 12 Jan 2014street pressure
- 2014currency stress
- 2014sovereign stress
- 2014election
- 21 Nov 2013street pressure
- 1 Jul 2010external support
- 2010election
- 1 Jan 2009capital controls
- 2009currency stress
- 1 Nov 2008external support
- 2 Apr 2007street pressure
- 4 Dec 2004street pressure
- 22 Nov 2004street pressure
- 1 Mar 2004external support
- 2004election
- 9 Mar 2003street pressure
- 16 Sep 2002street pressure
- 26 Apr 2001street pressure
- 9 Mar 2001street pressure
- 2000currency stress
- 1999currency stress
- 1999election
- 1 Sep 1998external support
- 1998currency stress
- 1 Aug 1997external support
- 1 Jan 1997capital controls
- 1 May 1996external support
- 1996currency stress
- 1 Apr 1995external support
- 1995currency stress
- 1994currency stress
- 1994election
- 14 Jun 1993street pressure
- 1993currency stress
- 1992currency stress
- 1992sovereign stress
- 1991currency stress
- 1991election
- 1990election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 69.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1985 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1986 | 64.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1987 | 63.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1988 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1989 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1990 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1991 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 88.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 85.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 90.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 57.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 56.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 55.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 53.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2009 | 64.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 61.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 80.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 63.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 61.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 89.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 76.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92 | Crisis | estimated |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
3 points · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Corn: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 13.0 low · upward pressure
Ukraine
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure
supply
Wheat: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 11.2 low · upward pressure
Ukraine · Russia
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Ecuador, 1976
Details
ECU, 1976
Published archive distance 0.2392. This similarity is not a forecast.
HTI, 1985
Published archive distance 0.2925. This similarity is not a forecast.
MDG, 1976
Published archive distance 0.2967. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics57%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 5 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 1 of 7
L4 Events36%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 58.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Ukraine in this snapshot
Ukraine (UKR) records Crisis pressure at 92.0 of 100 and touches 3 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 58.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 3 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 48 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Ukraine has pressure score 92/100 in Crisis. 0 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 1. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Iran, Islamic Republic of (IRN), 88/100, lower by 4.
Ukraine's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 82.6). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 64.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973-1973 | 1 | 72.8 | 72.8 | 72.8 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 64.3 | 55.3 | 69 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 82.6 | 59.5 | 90.6 | 8 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 64.2 | 53.8 | 79 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 71.8 | 61.1 | 95 | 3 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 80.1 | 61.2 | 95 | 3 |
Across 47 annual readings (1973-2025), Ukraine's mapped-score peak is 95 in 2014-2015, 2022-2023; the minimum is 53.8 in 2008.
Ukraine is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 46 of 47 readings: 1973, 1980-2007, 2009-2025. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Ukraine is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 25 of 47 readings: 1973, 1980-1982, 1991-2003, 2014-2017, 2022-2025. The remaining 22 are below 65.
Ukraine is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 14 of 47 readings: 1992-1999, 2014-2016, 2022-2024. The remaining 33 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Ukraine is 2024 to 2025: Crisis (89.3) to Strain (76.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Ukraine records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.