supply
Gold: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 0.6 low · upward pressure
Mali · Burkina Faso · Sudan
humanitarian pressure · information disruption
SDN
Sudan
Sudan has a Crisis pressure reading, among the highest scores.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
88 / 100
#2 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Sudan in November or December 2026: 25% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Sudan in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sudan, or with Sudan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 25% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population51.7M51,662,147 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalKhartoumKhartoum
Area1.9M km²1886068
GDP$60.2B (2025)60.2 USD bn (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank; Wikipedia; Sudan Media Forum
CurrencySDGSDG , Sudanese pound
LanguagesArabic, EnglishArabic, English
Armed forces144k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (1990s; 2000s); lowest 78 (1946-1949).
Details
Recorded events 162 · Country record
- Oct 2025conflict escalation
- Apr 2025conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2025displacement surge
- Oct 2024conflict escalation
- Jun 2024conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2024displacement surge
- Nov 2023conflict escalation
- Apr 2023conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2023displacement surge
- Oct 2022conflict escalation
- Apr 2022conflict escalation
- Mar 2022conflict escalation
Show all 162
- Dec 2021conflict escalation
- Nov 2021conflict escalation
- 25 Oct 2021leadership break
- 1 Jun 2021external support
- Jan 2021conflict escalation
- Dec 2020conflict escalation
- Jul 2020conflict escalation
- May 2020conflict escalation
- Jan 2020conflict escalation
- Dec 2019conflict escalation
- 30 Jun 2019street pressure
- Jun 2019conflict escalation
- 11 Apr 2019leadership break
- 6 Apr 2019street pressure
- Jan 2019conflict escalation
- 2019currency stress
- Nov 2018conflict escalation
- Feb 2018conflict escalation
- 2018currency stress
- May 2017conflict escalation
- Apr 2017conflict escalation
- 2017currency stress
- Jan 2016conflict escalation
- 2016currency stress
- Dec 2015conflict escalation
- Mar 2015conflict escalation
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- 2015election
- Mar 2014conflict escalation
- Feb 2014conflict escalation
- 2014currency stress
- Jan 2013conflict escalation
- 2013currency stress
- Sep 2012conflict escalation
- Apr 2012conflict escalation
- Feb 2012conflict escalation
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- 2012currency stress
- Jun 2011conflict escalation
- Feb 2011conflict escalation
- 2011currency stress
- Dec 2010conflict escalation
- Nov 2010conflict escalation
- May 2010conflict escalation
- Feb 2010conflict escalation
- Jan 2010conflict escalation
- 2010election
- Sep 2009conflict escalation
- Mar 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- Dec 2008conflict escalation
- May 2008conflict escalation
- Feb 2008conflict escalation
- Jul 2007conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2007capital controls
- Oct 2006conflict escalation
- Jul 2006conflict escalation
- Oct 2005conflict escalation
- Sep 2005conflict escalation
- Aug 2005conflict escalation
- 29 Mar 2005new sanctions
- Jan 2005conflict escalation
- Jul 2004conflict escalation
- Feb 2004conflict escalation
- Jan 2004conflict escalation
- Dec 2003conflict escalation
- Aug 2003conflict escalation
- Jun 2003conflict escalation
- Apr 2003conflict escalation
- Sep 2002conflict escalation
- Mar 2002conflict escalation
- Oct 2001conflict escalation
- May 2001conflict escalation
- Jan 2001conflict escalation
- Nov 2000conflict escalation
- Jun 2000conflict escalation
- May 2000conflict escalation
- Apr 2000conflict escalation
- Mar 2000conflict escalation
- Feb 2000conflict escalation
- 2000election
- Jul 1999conflict escalation
- Jan 1999conflict escalation
- 1999currency stress
- Jan 1998conflict escalation
- 1998currency stress
- Mar 1997conflict escalation
- Jan 1997conflict escalation
- 1997currency stress
- Nov 1996conflict escalation
- Sep 1996conflict escalation
- Jan 1996conflict escalation
- 1996currency stress
- 1996election
- Dec 1995conflict escalation
- Nov 1995conflict escalation
- Jul 1995conflict escalation
- Jun 1995conflict escalation
- 1995currency stress
- Oct 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- Oct 1993conflict escalation
- Apr 1993conflict escalation
- Mar 1993conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1993capital controls
- 1993currency stress
- Nov 1992conflict escalation
- May 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- Nov 1991conflict escalation
- Sep 1991conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 1991external support
- Jan 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- 1990currency stress
- Dec 1989conflict escalation
- Nov 1989conflict escalation
- Oct 1989conflict escalation
- May 1989conflict escalation
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1983election
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982currency stress
- 1 Feb 1981external support
- 1980currency stress
- 1978currency stress
- 1 Jan 1977capital controls
- 1977election
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975sovereign stress
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971election
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968election
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965election
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 1963conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 79.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 91.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 86.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 86.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 94.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
1 point · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Myanmar, 1994
Details
MMR, 1994
Published archive distance 0.1232. This similarity is not a forecast.
AGO, 2004
Published archive distance 0.1346. This similarity is not a forecast.
PRK, 1986
Published archive distance 0.1423. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 1 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 3 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy53%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 6 of 8; Inferred: 2 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics44%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 5 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events92%Confirmed: 4 of 5; Sourced: 1 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information50%Confirmed: 0 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 1 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 59.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Sudan in this snapshot
Sudan (SDN) records Crisis pressure at 88.0 of 100 and touches 1 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 59.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 1 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Sudan has pressure score 88/100 in Crisis. 1 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 2. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Iran, Islamic Republic of (IRN), 88/100, tied; Yemen (YEM), 88/100, tied.
Sudan's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 95); 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 78). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 78 | 61.7 | 83.5 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 82.6 | 77.3 | 95 | 5 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 94.6 | 90.8 | 95 | 10 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 86.3 | 77.2 | 95 | 6 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 89.3 | 75.7 | 95 | 7 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 93.5 | 86.4 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 93.4 | 85.6 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Sudan's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1959-1961, 1963-1972, 1983-2016, 2021-2024; the minimum is 61.7 in 1949.
Every published year for Sudan, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Sudan is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-2025. The remaining 1 are below 65.
Sudan is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 67 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1952, 1958-1972, 1975, 1978-1979, 1983-2025. The remaining 13 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Sudan is 1982 to 1983: Strain (76.4) to Crisis (95). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Sudan records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.