SGP, 1983
Published archive distance 0.408. This similarity is not a forecast.
NPL
Nepal
Nepal has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
27.5 / 100
#146 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Nepal in November or December 2026: 0.6% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in Nepal in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Nepal, or with Nepal as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 0.6% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population29.6M29,618,118 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalKathmanduKathmandu
Area147.2k km²147181
GDP$45.5B (2025)45.49 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyNPRNPR , Nepalese rupee
LanguagesNepaliNepali
Armed forces112k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 81.8 (2000s); lowest 61.2 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 51 · Country record
- 1 Jan 2022external support
- 2020sovereign stress
- 19 Jun 2019street pressure
- 2017sovereign stress
- 2017election
- 28 Feb 2015street pressure
- 2012sovereign stress
- 1 May 2010street pressure
- 2010sovereign stress
- 20 Dec 2009street pressure
- 12 Nov 2009street pressure
- 4 May 2009street pressure
Show all 51
- 29 May 2008street pressure
- Mar 2007conflict escalation
- 2 Jun 2006street pressure
- 20 Apr 2006street pressure
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 2005state of emergency
- 1 Apr 2004street pressure
- Mar 2004conflict escalation
- 3 Feb 2004street pressure
- 1 Nov 2003external support
- Oct 2003conflict escalation
- Sep 2003conflict escalation
- Aug 2003conflict escalation
- Jun 2003conflict escalation
- Feb 2002conflict escalation
- Dec 2001conflict escalation
- 26 Nov 2001state of emergency
- Nov 2001conflict escalation
- Jul 2001conflict escalation
- Apr 2001conflict escalation
- Jan 2000conflict escalation
- Oct 1998conflict escalation
- Jun 1998conflict escalation
- May 1998conflict escalation
- 22 Jul 1997street pressure
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 14 Aug 1994street pressure
- 20 Jul 1994street pressure
- 1 Oct 1992external support
- 1 Jun 1991external support
- 1991currency stress
- 9 Sep 1990street pressure
- 2 Apr 1990street pressure
- 19 Feb 1990street pressure
- 1986sovereign stress
- 1968currency stress
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
- 1960conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 82.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 80.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 66.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 65.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 65.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 65.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 65.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 65.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 71.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 82.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 83.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 91.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 60.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 60.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 86.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 27.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.5 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Singapore, 1983
Details
SLB, 2014
Published archive distance 0.42. This similarity is not a forecast.
ARE, 2006
Published archive distance 0.4341. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics90%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 3 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 63.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Nepal in this snapshot
Nepal (NPL) records Calm pressure at 27.5 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 63.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Nepal has pressure score 27.5/100 in Calm. 145 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 146. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Jordan (JOR), 27.5/100, tied; Sri Lanka (LKA), 27.3/100, lower by 0.2.
Nepal's highest decade mean is recorded in 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 81.8). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 61.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 65.7 | 59.5 | 67.8 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 81.4 | 72.1 | 83.6 | 8 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 74.9 | 66.9 | 83.3 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 68.5 | 64.9 | 80.9 | 2 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 75.6 | 68.2 | 84.7 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 75.3 | 67.1 | 84.4 | 4 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 81.8 | 59.5 | 95 | 7 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 68.9 | 59.5 | 86.2 | 1 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 61.2 | 27.5 | 78.6 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Nepal's mapped-score peak is 95 in 2002-2004; the minimum is 27.5 in 2025.
Nepal is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2024. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Nepal is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 67 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1976, 1978-2006, 2010, 2012-2013, 2015, 2017, 2020-2021, 2023. The remaining 13 are below 65.
Nepal is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 26 of 80 readings: 1951-1955, 1957-1960, 1965, 1967, 1971, 1973, 1983, 1996-2006, 2012. The remaining 54 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Nepal is 2024 to 2025: Watch (56.7) to Calm (27.5). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Nepal records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.