SLB, 2015
Published archive distance 0.3353. This similarity is not a forecast.
LKA
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
27.3 / 100
#149 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Sri Lanka in November or December 2026: 12% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Sri Lanka in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sri Lanka, or with Sri Lanka as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 12% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population21.8M21,756,000 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalColomboColombo
Area65.6k km²65610
GDP$108.8B (2025)108.8 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyLKRLKR , Sri Lankan rupee
LanguagesSinhala, TamilSinhala, Tamil
Armed forces317k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 90.5 (1990s); lowest 58.8 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 81 · Country record
- 2024election
- 1 Mar 2023external support
- 1 Jan 2023capital controls
- 6 May 2022state of emergency
- 1 Apr 2022state of emergency
- 31 Mar 2022street pressure
- 2019election
- 30 Oct 2018street pressure
- 5 Sep 2018street pressure
- 1 Jun 2016external support
- 2015election
- 1 Jan 2013capital controls
Show all 81
- 2010election
- 1 Jul 2009external support
- Feb 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- Dec 2007conflict escalation
- Oct 2007conflict escalation
- Mar 2007conflict escalation
- 2007sovereign stress
- Aug 2006conflict escalation
- Jun 2006conflict escalation
- Apr 2006conflict escalation
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- Dec 2005conflict escalation
- 2 Jul 2005street pressure
- 15 Jun 2005street pressure
- 2005sovereign stress
- 2005election
- 1 Apr 2003external support
- 24 Aug 2001street pressure
- 1 Apr 2001external support
- Apr 2001conflict escalation
- Sep 2000conflict escalation
- Apr 2000conflict escalation
- Sep 1999conflict escalation
- May 1999conflict escalation
- 1999election
- Sep 1998conflict escalation
- Jun 1998conflict escalation
- May 1998conflict escalation
- Aug 1997conflict escalation
- Jun 1997conflict escalation
- 15 Feb 1997street pressure
- Jan 1997conflict escalation
- Jul 1996conflict escalation
- 16 Jun 1996street pressure
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- Oct 1995conflict escalation
- Jul 1995conflict escalation
- Apr 1995conflict escalation
- Sep 1994conflict escalation
- Aug 1994conflict escalation
- 1994election
- Nov 1993conflict escalation
- Sep 1993conflict escalation
- 10 Aug 1992street pressure
- May 1992conflict escalation
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- Jul 1991conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 1991external support
- Apr 1991conflict escalation
- Mar 1991conflict escalation
- Dec 1989conflict escalation
- Nov 1989conflict escalation
- Aug 1989conflict escalation
- Feb 1989conflict escalation
- 1988sovereign stress
- 1988election
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1982election
- 1 Jan 1980capital controls
- 1978currency stress
- 1976currency stress
- 1971sovereign stress
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1968currency stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 60.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 73.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 60.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 59.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1962 | 59.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 58.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 58.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 58.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 58.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 58.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 59.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 88.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 73.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1980 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1981 | 61.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1982 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1983 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 80.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 93.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 92.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 90.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 62.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2003 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 55.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 77.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 91.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 77.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 65.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 65.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 62.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 41.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 27.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.3 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Solomon Islands, 2015
Details
OMN, 1978
Published archive distance 0.3969. This similarity is not a forecast.
ARE, 2006
Published archive distance 0.4033. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 2 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics79%Confirmed: 4 of 7; Sourced: 2 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events48%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 61.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Sri Lanka in this snapshot
Sri Lanka (LKA) records Calm pressure at 27.3 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 61.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Sri Lanka has pressure score 27.3/100 in Calm. 148 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 149. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Nepal (NPL), 27.5/100, higher by 0.2; Jamaica (JAM), 26.5/100, lower by 0.8.
Sri Lanka's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 90.5). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 58.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 77.5 | 75 | 84 | 1 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 65.2 | 59.5 | 76.7 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 58.8 | 58.1 | 59.4 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 69.8 | 59.3 | 88.1 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 69.5 | 61 | 93.9 | 2 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 90.5 | 82.6 | 93.9 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 82 | 55.9 | 95 | 6 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 70.4 | 62.6 | 80.1 | 1 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 59.8 | 27.3 | 76 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Sri Lanka's mapped-score peak is 95 in 2001; the minimum is 27.3 in 2025.
Sri Lanka is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 78 of 80 readings: 1946-2023. The remaining 2 are below 55.
Sri Lanka is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 50 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1953, 1956, 1971-1977, 1984-2001, 2003, 2005-2016, 2018, 2020-2023. The remaining 30 are below 65.
Sri Lanka is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 21 of 80 readings: 1948, 1971, 1987, 1989-2001, 2006-2009, 2014. The remaining 59 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Sri Lanka is 2023 to 2024: Strain (68.9) to Calm (41.1). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Sri Lanka records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.