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United States

United States has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.

🟠 Strain

73 / 100

#25 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in the United States in November or December 2026: 17% · possible

Chance of a conflict escalation in the United States in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the United States, or with the United States as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
17% · possible
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population341.8M
CapitalWashington D.C.
Area9.4M km²
GDP$30.8T (2025)
CurrencyUSD
LanguagesEnglish
Armed forces1.4M (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
34.75
L3 Politics
34.49
L4 Events
38
L5 Information
10.8
L6 Society
49.5

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 56.3 (2000s); lowest 22.4 (1990s).

Details

Recorded events 22 · Country record

  • 2024election
  • 2020election
  • 2016election
  • 2012election
  • 2008election
  • 2004election
  • 2000election
  • 1996election
  • 1992election
  • 1988election
  • 1984election
  • 1980election
Show all 22
  • 1976election
  • 1972election
  • 1968election
  • 1964election
  • 22 Nov 1963leadership break
  • 1960election
  • 1956election
  • 1952election
  • 1950conflict escalation
  • 1948election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

United States · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194648.3Calmarchive reading
194748.7Calmarchive reading
194847.2Calmarchive reading
194947.3Calmarchive reading
195058.3Watcharchive reading
195131.8Calmarchive reading
195231.0Calmarchive reading
195330.3Calmarchive reading
195456.7Watcharchive reading
195529.6Calmarchive reading
195629.3Calmarchive reading
195729.2Calmarchive reading
195856.5Watcharchive reading
195928.3Calmarchive reading
196028.0Calmarchive reading
196127.7Calmarchive reading
196226.9Calmarchive reading
196326.0Calmarchive reading
196425.2Calmarchive reading
196524.2Calmarchive reading
196623.5Calmarchive reading
196723.3Calmarchive reading
196822.0Calmarchive reading
196922.1Calmarchive reading
197021.0Calmarchive reading
197121.0Calmarchive reading
197220.5Calmarchive reading
197320.5Calmarchive reading
197454.3Calmarchive reading
197554.3Calmarchive reading
197620.4Calmarchive reading
197720.4Calmarchive reading
197820.4Calmarchive reading
197920.4Calmarchive reading
198054.3Calmarchive reading
198119.4Calmarchive reading
198253.5Calmarchive reading
198354.0Calmarchive reading
198435.4Calmarchive reading
198519.4Calmarchive reading
198620.0Calmarchive reading
198719.4Calmarchive reading
198819.3Calmarchive reading
198956.2Watcharchive reading
199019.0Calmarchive reading
199152.7Calmarchive reading
199218.9Calmarchive reading
199318.9Calmarchive reading
199418.9Calmarchive reading
199519.5Calmarchive reading
199618.9Calmarchive reading
199718.9Calmarchive reading
199818.8Calmarchive reading
199919.0Calmarchive reading
200019.4Calmarchive reading
200167.2Strainarchive reading
200257.2Watcharchive reading
200366.8Strainarchive reading
200456.7Watcharchive reading
200556.5Watcharchive reading
200656.6Watcharchive reading
200759.2Watcharchive reading
200861.8Watcharchive reading
200961.7Watcharchive reading
201056.0Watcharchive reading
201156.1Watcharchive reading
201256.1Watcharchive reading
201356.0Watcharchive reading
201456.0Watcharchive reading
201556.0Watcharchive reading
201657.5Watcharchive reading
201759.4Watcharchive reading
201831.4Calmarchive reading
201959.5Watcharchive reading
202032.8Calmarchive reading
202118.8Calmarchive reading
202217.0Calmarchive reading
202318.1Calmarchive reading
202458.3Watcharchive reading
202564.4Watcharchive reading
United States · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202673Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Germany, 2003

Details
Germany, 2003France, 2015Ireland, 1993

DEU, 2003

Published archive distance 0.5692. This similarity is not a forecast.

FRA, 2015

Published archive distance 0.5911. This similarity is not a forecast.

IRL, 1993

Published archive distance 0.6285. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for United States
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy60%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events42%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 3Confidence 60.9

United States in this snapshot

United States (USA) records Strain pressure at 73.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 60.9.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

United States has pressure score 73/100 in Strain. 24 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 25. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): France (FRA), 74/100, higher by 1; Central African Republic (CAF), 72/100, lower by 1.

United States's highest decade mean is recorded in 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 56.3). The lowest is 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 22.4). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

United States: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949447.947.248.70
1950-19591038.128.358.30
1960-19691024.922280
1970-19791027.320.454.30
1980-19891035.119.356.20
1990-19991022.418.852.70
2000-20091056.319.467.20
2010-20191054.431.459.50
2020-2025634.91764.40

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), United States's mapped-score peak is 67.2 in 2001; the minimum is 17 in 2022.

United States is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 24 of 80 readings: 1950, 1954, 1958, 1989, 2001-2017, 2019, 2024-2025. The remaining 56 are below 55.

United States is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 2 of 80 readings: 2001, 2003. The remaining 78 are below 65.

United States never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for United States is 2023 to 2024: Calm (18.1) to Watch (58.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

United States records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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