PER, 2002
Published archive distance 0.2175. This similarity is not a forecast.
CAF
Central African Republic
Central African Republic has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
72 / 100
#26 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in the Central African Republic in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Central African Republic, or with the Central African Republic as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 31% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population5.5M5,513,282 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBanguiBangui
Area623k km²622984
GDP~$3.1B (2025)~USD 3.07 billion (2025, WB); ~2.75B (2024, TradingEconomics citing WB) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank; Trading Economics
CurrencyXAFXAF , Central African CFA franc
LanguagesFrench, SangoFrench, Sango
Armed forces10k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 89.4 (2010s); lowest 76.2 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 60 · Country record
- Dec 2025conflict escalation
- Sep 2025conflict escalation
- Feb 2025conflict escalation
- 2025election
- Mar 2024conflict escalation
- Dec 2023conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 2023external support
- Dec 2022conflict escalation
- Oct 2022conflict escalation
- Sep 2021conflict escalation
- Jan 2021conflict escalation
- 2021election
Show all 60
- Dec 2020conflict escalation
- 2020election
- 1 Dec 2019external support
- Sep 2019conflict escalation
- May 2019conflict escalation
- Jan 2019conflict escalation
- Nov 2018conflict escalation
- May 2017conflict escalation
- Dec 2016conflict escalation
- Nov 2016conflict escalation
- Sep 2016conflict escalation
- 1 Jul 2016external support
- 2016election
- Aug 2015conflict escalation
- 2015election
- Dec 2013conflict escalation
- Sep 2013conflict escalation
- Jul 2013conflict escalation
- Mar 2013conflict escalation
- Dec 2012conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 2012external support
- Sep 2011conflict escalation
- Jan 2011conflict escalation
- 2011election
- Mar 2010conflict escalation
- Jul 2009conflict escalation
- Feb 2007conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2006external support
- Oct 2006conflict escalation
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- 2005election
- 24 Nov 2000street pressure
- 1999election
- 1 Jul 1998external support
- 1998election
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1 Mar 1994external support
- 1994currency stress
- 1993election
- 5 Aug 1992street pressure
- 1992election
- 1986election
- 1982currency stress
- 1981currency stress
- 1981election
- 1 Jan 1979capital controls
- 1970sovereign stress
- 1964election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 63.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 82.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 68.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 69.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 90.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 90.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 94.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 80.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 91.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 83.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 81.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 93.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 86.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Peru, 2002
Details
SLV, 1993
Published archive distance 0.2286. This similarity is not a forecast.
MOZ, 1994
Published archive distance 0.2424. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 5 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy71%Confirmed: 3 of 8; Sourced: 4 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics69%Confirmed: 3 of 7; Sourced: 2 of 7; Inferred: 2 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events62%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information50%Confirmed: 0 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 1 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society75%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 1 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 66.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Central African Republic in this snapshot
Central African Republic (CAF) records Strain pressure at 72.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 66.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Central African Republic has pressure score 72/100 in Strain. 25 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 5 share this score. Its competition rank is 26. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): United States (USA), 73/100, higher by 1; Congo, The Democratic Republic of the (COD), 72/100, tied.
Central African Republic's highest decade mean is recorded in 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 89.4). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 76.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 83.7 | 63.3 | 93.9 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 83.3 | 81.9 | 84.7 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 76.2 | 64.7 | 87.2 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 84.3 | 77.8 | 95 | 5 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 81.5 | 72.1 | 95 | 7 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 78.6 | 68.3 | 94.8 | 2 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 78 | 68.3 | 91.2 | 5 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 89.4 | 81.7 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 83.2 | 65 | 95 | 4 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Central African Republic's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1979, 1983, 2013-2017, 2021; the minimum is 63.3 in 1949.
Every published year for Central African Republic, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Central African Republic is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 78 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1962, 1964-2025. The remaining 2 are below 65.
Central African Republic is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 50 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1960, 1966-1968, 1970-1972, 1974, 1979-1985, 1987, 1990, 1996, 2001-2003, 2006, 2009-2023. The remaining 30 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Central African Republic is 2023 to 2024: Crisis (86.7) to Strain (75.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Central African Republic records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.