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Iceland

Iceland has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

23.3 / 100

#160 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Iceland in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Iceland in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Iceland, or with Iceland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population392.4k
CapitalReykjavik
Area103k km²
GDP$38.6B (2025)
CurrencyISK
LanguagesIcelandic
Armed forces0 (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
29.5
L3 Politics
17.25
L4 Events
41.2
L5 Information
37.3
L6 Society
44

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 46.8 (1950s); lowest 19.8 (2000s).

Details

Recorded events 29 · Country record

  • 2024election
  • 2020election
  • 2016election
  • 2012election
  • 2009currency stress
  • 1 Nov 2008external support
  • 1 Jan 2008capital controls
  • 2008currency stress
  • 2004election
  • 2001currency stress
  • 1996election
  • 1989currency stress
Show all 29
  • 1988election
  • 1985currency stress
  • 1984currency stress
  • 1983currency stress
  • 1982currency stress
  • 1981currency stress
  • 1980currency stress
  • 1980election
  • 1979currency stress
  • 1 Jan 1978capital controls
  • 1978currency stress
  • 1975currency stress
  • 1969currency stress
  • 1968currency stress
  • 1968election
  • 1960currency stress
  • 1952election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Iceland · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194623.5Calmarchive reading
194723.5Calmarchive reading
194823.5Calmarchive reading
194920.0Calmarchive reading
195058.0Watcharchive reading
195162.4Watcharchive reading
195262.1Watcharchive reading
195342.7Calmarchive reading
195441.7Calmarchive reading
195540.6Calmarchive reading
195640.3Calmarchive reading
195740.7Calmarchive reading
195839.9Calmarchive reading
195939.7Calmarchive reading
196039.2Calmarchive reading
196159.5Watcharchive reading
196238.3Calmarchive reading
196336.6Calmarchive reading
196435.3Calmarchive reading
196533.6Calmarchive reading
196631.5Calmarchive reading
196759.2Watcharchive reading
196859.7Watcharchive reading
196933.6Calmarchive reading
197032.3Calmarchive reading
197128.3Calmarchive reading
197227.4Calmarchive reading
197325.6Calmarchive reading
197423.1Calmarchive reading
197524.2Calmarchive reading
197621.4Calmarchive reading
197717.8Calmarchive reading
197816.7Calmarchive reading
197916.7Calmarchive reading
198016.7Calmarchive reading
198116.7Calmarchive reading
198216.7Calmarchive reading
198356.1Watcharchive reading
198418.1Calmarchive reading
198518.1Calmarchive reading
198616.7Calmarchive reading
198716.7Calmarchive reading
198855.1Watcharchive reading
198916.4Calmarchive reading
199015.6Calmarchive reading
199155.2Watcharchive reading
199255.2Watcharchive reading
199315.6Calmarchive reading
199415.6Calmarchive reading
199515.6Calmarchive reading
199615.6Calmarchive reading
199715.6Calmarchive reading
199815.6Calmarchive reading
199915.9Calmarchive reading
200015.6Calmarchive reading
200115.6Calmarchive reading
200215.6Calmarchive reading
200315.9Calmarchive reading
200415.9Calmarchive reading
200516.4Calmarchive reading
200616.1Calmarchive reading
200715.6Calmarchive reading
200815.6Calmarchive reading
200955.2Watcharchive reading
201055.2Watcharchive reading
201115.6Calmarchive reading
201217.5Calmarchive reading
201321.8Calmarchive reading
201422.3Calmarchive reading
201519.3Calmarchive reading
201615.6Calmarchive reading
201715.6Calmarchive reading
201815.7Calmarchive reading
201916.0Calmarchive reading
202046.9Calmarchive reading
202127.6Calmarchive reading
202224.0Calmarchive reading
202321.2Calmarchive reading
202421.6Calmarchive reading
202523.3Calmarchive reading
Iceland · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202623.3Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Norway, 2015

Details
Norway, 2015Canada, 1988Belgium, 1987

NOR, 2015

Published archive distance 0.2134. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 1988

Published archive distance 0.2148. This similarity is not a forecast.

BEL, 1987

Published archive distance 0.2173. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Iceland
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-270Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-145Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z2Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics89%
L4 Events42%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 62.3

Iceland in this snapshot

Iceland (ISL) records Calm pressure at 23.3 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 62.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Iceland has pressure score 23.3/100 in Calm. 159 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 160. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Hong Kong (HKG), 23.6/100, higher by 0.3; Saint Lucia (LCA), 23.3/100, tied.

Iceland's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 46.8). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 19.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Iceland: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949422.62023.50
1950-19591046.839.762.40
1960-19691042.631.559.70
1970-19791023.416.732.30
1980-19891024.716.456.10
1990-19991023.615.655.20
2000-20091019.815.655.20
2010-20191021.515.655.20
2020-2025627.421.246.90

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Iceland's mapped-score peak is 62.4 in 1951; the minimum is 15.6 in 1990, 1993-1998, 2000-2002, 2007-2008, 2011, 2016-2017.

Iceland is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 12 of 80 readings: 1950-1952, 1961, 1967-1968, 1983, 1988, 1991-1992, 2009-2010. The remaining 68 are below 55.

Iceland never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Iceland never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Iceland is 2010 to 2011: Watch (55.2) to Calm (15.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Iceland records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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