NIC, 1971
Published archive distance 0.1667. This similarity is not a forecast.
MDG
Madagascar
Madagascar has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
58 / 100
#59 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Madagascar in November or December 2026: 0.5% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in Madagascar in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Madagascar, or with Madagascar as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 0.5% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population32.7M32,740,678 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalAntananarivoAntananarivo
Area587k km²587041
GDP$19.6B (2025)USD 19.62B (2025, WB); per capita ~USD 600 tra i più bassi al mondo · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank; Wikipedia
CurrencyMGAMGA , Malagasy ariary
LanguagesFrench, MalagasyFrench, Malagasy
Armed forces22k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 90.3 (1946-1949); lowest 67.9 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 45 · Country record
- 1 Jun 2024external support
- 2023election
- 1 Mar 2021external support
- 2018election
- 1 Jul 2016external support
- 1 Jan 2016capital controls
- 2015currency stress
- 2013election
- 1 Jan 2010capital controls
- 25 Mar 2009street pressure
- 26 Jan 2009street pressure
- 27 Apr 2007street pressure
Show all 45
- 1 Jul 2006external support
- 2006election
- 2004currency stress
- 13 May 2003street pressure
- 7 May 2002street pressure
- 7 Jan 2002street pressure
- 1 Mar 2001external support
- 2001election
- 1997currency stress
- 1 Nov 1996external support
- 1996election
- 1995currency stress
- 1994currency stress
- 1993election
- 1992election
- 1 Aug 1991street pressure
- 6 Jul 1991street pressure
- 11 Jun 1991street pressure
- 1 Apr 1991external support
- 1991currency stress
- 1989election
- 1988currency stress
- 1987currency stress
- 1984currency stress
- 1983currency stress
- 1982currency stress
- 1982election
- 1981currency stress
- 1975election
- 1 Jan 1972capital controls
- 1972sovereign stress
- 1972election
- 1965election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 86.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 81.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 91.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 88.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 77.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 83.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 81.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 91.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 77.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 73.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Nicaragua, 1971
Details
ARG, 1993
Published archive distance 0.1728. This similarity is not a forecast.
SLV, 2003
Published archive distance 0.1862. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy66%Confirmed: 2 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics73%Confirmed: 3 of 7; Sourced: 3 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events62%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society82%Confirmed: 4 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 1 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 69.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Madagascar in this snapshot
Madagascar (MDG) records Watch pressure at 58.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 69.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Madagascar has pressure score 58/100 in Watch. 58 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 11 share this score. Its competition rank is 59. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Kiribati (KIR), 58/100, tied; Malawi (MWI), 58/100, tied.
Madagascar's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 90.3). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 67.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 90.3 | 76.4 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 85.4 | 82.9 | 87 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 67.9 | 62.9 | 81.3 | 1 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 84.3 | 62.5 | 95 | 6 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 77.4 | 73.8 | 88.2 | 2 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 79.3 | 75.2 | 95 | 2 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 84.6 | 74.4 | 95 | 8 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 81.3 | 65.7 | 95 | 6 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 70.2 | 61 | 76.4 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Madagascar's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1972-1973, 1976, 1991, 2009-2011; the minimum is 61 in 2025.
Every published year for Madagascar, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Madagascar is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 72 of 80 readings: 1946-1963, 1971-2024. The remaining 8 are below 65.
Madagascar is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 38 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1960, 1972-1976, 1978, 1981-1982, 1991, 1994, 2002-2015. The remaining 42 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Madagascar is 2024 to 2025: Strain (66.9) to Watch (61). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Madagascar records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.