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Taiwan, Province of China

Taiwan, Province of China has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟡 Watch

56 / 100

#70 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Taiwan in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Taiwan in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Taiwan, or with Taiwan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

CapitalTaipei
Area36.2k km²
CurrencyTWD
LanguagesChinese
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
14.62
L3 Politics
27.54
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
No reading in this snapshot
L6 Society
No reading in this snapshot

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 95 (1946-1949); lowest 24.4 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 59 · Country record

  • 2024election
  • 2020election
  • 20 Dec 2018street pressure
  • 20 Oct 2018street pressure
  • 23 Jul 2017street pressure
  • 2016election
  • 25 Oct 2014street pressure
  • 26 Apr 2014street pressure
  • 18 Mar 2014street pressure
  • 1 Jan 2013street pressure
  • 2012election
  • 2 Nov 2010street pressure
Show all 59
  • 27 Jun 2010street pressure
  • 20 Dec 2009street pressure
  • 1 May 2009street pressure
  • 26 Oct 2008street pressure
  • 30 Aug 2008street pressure
  • 2008election
  • 10 Oct 2006street pressure
  • 10 Sep 2006street pressure
  • 3 Jun 2006street pressure
  • 12 Mar 2006street pressure
  • 2005election
  • 25 Sep 2004street pressure
  • 8 Apr 2004street pressure
  • 13 Mar 2004street pressure
  • 2004election
  • 6 Sep 2003street pressure
  • 23 Nov 2002street pressure
  • 27 Aug 2002street pressure
  • 24 Feb 2001street pressure
  • 25 Dec 2000street pressure
  • 2000election
  • 9 Dec 1999street pressure
  • 1 May 1999street pressure
  • 1 May 1998street pressure
  • 26 Sep 1997street pressure
  • 4 May 1997street pressure
  • 15 Oct 1996street pressure
  • 1996election
  • 21 Dec 1993street pressure
  • 31 Jan 1993street pressure
  • 28 Dec 1992street pressure
  • 20 Apr 1992street pressure
  • 23 Feb 1992street pressure
  • 25 Oct 1991street pressure
  • 8 Sep 1991street pressure
  • 17 Apr 1991street pressure
  • 1991election
  • 25 Dec 1990street pressure
  • 18 Mar 1990street pressure
  • 1986election
  • 1980election
  • 1972election
  • 1969election
  • 1959currency stress
  • 1956currency stress
  • 1953currency stress
  • 1947election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Taiwan, Province of China · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194695.0Crisisarchive reading
194795.0Crisisarchive reading
194895.0Crisisarchive reading
194995.0Crisisarchive reading
195089.6Crisisarchive reading
195195.0Crisisarchive reading
195276.8Strainarchive reading
195375.7Strainarchive reading
195493.9Crisisarchive reading
195574.4Strainarchive reading
195673.8Strainarchive reading
195773.3Strainarchive reading
195891.7Crisisarchive reading
195972.3Strainarchive reading
196071.3Strainarchive reading
196171.0Strainarchive reading
196270.4Strainarchive reading
196369.9Strainarchive reading
196468.7Strainarchive reading
196568.3Strainarchive reading
196668.1Strainarchive reading
196767.8Strainarchive reading
196867.6Strainarchive reading
196967.2Strainarchive reading
197066.6Strainarchive reading
197166.5Strainarchive reading
197265.9Strainarchive reading
197365.6Strainarchive reading
197464.6Watcharchive reading
197564.4Watcharchive reading
197663.4Watcharchive reading
197762.9Watcharchive reading
197863.4Watcharchive reading
197963.0Watcharchive reading
198062.1Watcharchive reading
198160.1Watcharchive reading
198259.5Watcharchive reading
198358.5Watcharchive reading
198456.9Watcharchive reading
198556.7Watcharchive reading
198656.1Watcharchive reading
198763.5Watcharchive reading
198861.8Watcharchive reading
198958.2Watcharchive reading
199068.0Strainarchive reading
199157.9Watcharchive reading
199261.2Watcharchive reading
199359.9Watcharchive reading
199457.0Watcharchive reading
199555.9Watcharchive reading
199657.1Watcharchive reading
199755.0Watcharchive reading
199845.9Calmarchive reading
199944.4Calmarchive reading
200046.6Calmarchive reading
200161.4Watcharchive reading
200237.0Calmarchive reading
200336.0Calmarchive reading
200457.4Watcharchive reading
200537.6Calmarchive reading
200649.9Calmarchive reading
200740.4Calmarchive reading
200832.3Calmarchive reading
200960.0Watcharchive reading
201038.2Calmarchive reading
201130.3Calmarchive reading
201229.8Calmarchive reading
201329.7Calmarchive reading
201436.5Calmarchive reading
201528.7Calmarchive reading
201635.6Calmarchive reading
201735.2Calmarchive reading
201834.9Calmarchive reading
201924.5Calmarchive reading
202028.0Calmarchive reading
202128.0Calmarchive reading
202220.4Calmarchive reading
202317.4Calmarchive reading
202424.2Calmarchive reading
202528.4Calmarchive reading
Taiwan, Province of China · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202656Calmarchive reading

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Taiwan, Province of China
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 1Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity50%
L2 Economy38%
L3 Politics57%
L4 Events6%
L5 Information53%
L6 Society50%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 2Confidence 42.6

Taiwan, Province of China in this snapshot

Taiwan, Province of China (TWN) records Watch pressure at 56.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 42.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

2 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Taiwan, Province of China has pressure score 56/100 in Watch. 69 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 70. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Papua New Guinea (PNG), 56/100, tied; Angola (AGO), 55/100, lower by 1.

Taiwan, Province of China's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 24.4). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Taiwan, Province of China: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-194949595954
1950-19591081.772.3954
1960-1969106967.271.30
1970-19791064.662.966.60
1980-19891059.356.163.50
1990-19991056.244.4680
2000-20091045.932.361.40
2010-20191032.324.538.20
2020-2025624.417.428.40

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Taiwan, Province of China's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1949, 1951; the minimum is 17.4 in 2023.

Taiwan, Province of China is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 55 of 80 readings: 1946-1997, 2001, 2004, 2009. The remaining 25 are below 55.

Taiwan, Province of China is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 29 of 80 readings: 1946-1973, 1990. The remaining 51 are below 65.

Taiwan, Province of China is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 8 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1954, 1958. The remaining 72 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Taiwan, Province of China is 2009 to 2010: Watch (60) to Calm (38.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Taiwan, Province of China records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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