CRI, 2008
Published archive distance 0.2843. This similarity is not a forecast.
GBR
United Kingdom
United Kingdom has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
66 / 100
#41 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in the United Kingdom in November or December 2026: 1.3% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in the United Kingdom in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the United Kingdom, or with the United Kingdom as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 1.3% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population69.5M69,487,000 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalLondonLondon · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area242.9k km²242900 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$4T (2025)4.00259e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyGBPGBP · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesEnglishEnglish · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces153k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsThe events record lacks the documented evidence needed for a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshot L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 63.2 (1980s); lowest 47.5 (1950s).
Details
Recorded events 85 · Country record
- 22 Jun 2026leadership break
- 19 Oct 2019street pressure
- 31 Aug 2019street pressure
- 12 Apr 2019street pressure
- 15 Mar 2019street pressure
- 15 Feb 2019street pressure
- 27 Oct 2018street pressure
- 23 Jun 2018street pressure
- 1 Oct 2017street pressure
- 21 Jan 2017street pressure
- 15 Nov 2016street pressure
- 4 Oct 2015street pressure
Show all 85
- 18 Oct 2014street pressure
- 21 Sep 2014street pressure
- 1 Aug 2014street pressure
- 11 Jun 2014street pressure
- 10 May 2012street pressure
- 28 Apr 2012street pressure
- 30 Nov 2011street pressure
- 30 Jun 2011street pressure
- 26 Mar 2011street pressure
- 9 Dec 2010street pressure
- 10 Nov 2010street pressure
- 23 Jan 2008street pressure
- 18 Mar 2006street pressure
- 19 Nov 2003street pressure
- 27 Sep 2003street pressure
- 4 Apr 2003street pressure
- 22 Mar 2003street pressure
- 15 Feb 2003street pressure
- 5 Dec 2002street pressure
- 24 Nov 2002street pressure
- 10 Sep 2002street pressure
- 18 Jan 2002street pressure
- 16 Dec 2001street pressure
- 18 Nov 2001street pressure
- 2 Jul 2000street pressure
- 1 May 2000street pressure
- 10 Nov 1999street pressure
- 28 Sep 1999street pressure
- 20 Oct 1998street pressure
- 9 Jul 1998street pressure
- 1 Mar 1998street pressure
- 26 Dec 1997street pressure
- 10 Jul 1997street pressure
- 23 Feb 1997street pressure
- 7 Jul 1996street pressure
- 23 Apr 1996street pressure
- 24 Jul 1994street pressure
- 5 Nov 1993street pressure
- 20 Jul 1993street pressure
- 21 Oct 1992street pressure
- 13 Feb 1992street pressure
- 20 Oct 1990street pressure
- 2 Mar 1990street pressure
- 15 Feb 1990street pressure
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979sovereign stress
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1976external support
- 1976currency stress
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1975external support
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1974external support
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1973external support
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1 May 1968external support
- 1 Nov 1967external support
- 1 Mar 1964external support
- 1 Aug 1961external support
- 1 Nov 1956external support
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1947 | 55.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1948 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1949 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1951 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 39.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1954 | 38.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1955 | 37.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1956 | 66.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 37.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1958 | 36.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1959 | 36.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1960 | 35.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1961 | 34.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1962 | 55.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 55.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 54.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1967 | 31.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1968 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 60.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 55.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1975 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 59.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 62.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1983 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1985 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1986 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1987 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1988 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1989 | 63.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1990 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 56.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1993 | 58.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1994 | 58.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1995 | 59.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1996 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 48.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1998 | 69.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 56.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 86.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 58.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2003 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 54.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2005 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 45.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2007 | 58.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 62.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 59.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 57.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 60.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 65.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 61.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 27.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2024 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Costa Rica, 2008
Details
PAN, 2012
Published archive distance 0.3144. This similarity is not a forecast.
KWT, 1982
Published archive distance 0.3307. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events18%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 1 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 3 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 57.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
United Kingdom in this snapshot
United Kingdom (GBR) records Strain pressure at 66.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 57.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
United Kingdom has pressure score 66/100 in Strain. 40 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 41. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Iraq (IRQ), 68/100, higher by 2; Burundi (BDI), 65/100, lower by 1.
United Kingdom's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 63.2). The lowest is 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 47.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 59.6 | 55.9 | 61.6 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 47.5 | 36.1 | 66.7 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 49.5 | 31.4 | 62.7 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 60.6 | 55.2 | 66.1 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 63.2 | 61.5 | 68.4 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 61.9 | 48.4 | 75.5 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 61.8 | 45.9 | 86.9 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 59.8 | 56.7 | 65.1 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 56.1 | 27.2 | 64.7 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), United Kingdom's mapped-score peak is 86.9 in 2001; the minimum is 27.2 in 2023.
United Kingdom is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 66 of 80 readings: 1946-1952, 1956, 1962-1965, 1968-1996, 1998-2003, 2005, 2007-2022, 2024-2025. The remaining 14 are below 55.
United Kingdom is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 11 of 80 readings: 1956, 1975, 1979-1981, 1990-1991, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2013. The remaining 69 are below 65.
United Kingdom is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 1 of 80 readings: 2001. The remaining 79 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for United Kingdom is 2023 to 2024: Calm (27.2) to Watch (59.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
United Kingdom records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.