Nigeria has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
70 / 100
#31 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Nigeria in November or December 2026: 20% · real chance
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Highest decade mean 93.8 (2010s); lowest 67.5 (1950s).
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 79.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 85.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 68.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 81.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 80.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 79.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 87.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 86.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 86.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 76.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 81.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 86.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 81.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 68.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 80.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70 | Calm | archive reading |
3 points · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
India · Iran · Nigeria · Mexico · Russia · China · Venezuela
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Nigeria
armed conflict activity · information disruption
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Nigeria
armed conflict activity · information disruption
3 similar years · Closest: El Salvador, 1992
Published archive distance 0.2012. This similarity is not a forecast.
Published archive distance 0.2226. This similarity is not a forecast.
Published archive distance 0.227. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Nigeria (NGA) records Strain pressure at 70.0 of 100 and touches 3 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 59.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 3 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Nigeria has pressure score 70/100 in Strain. 30 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 31. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Italy (ITA), 70/100, tied; Brazil (BRA), 68/100, lower by 2.
Nigeria's highest decade mean is recorded in 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 93.8). The lowest is 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 67.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 77.1 | 61 | 82.5 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 67.5 | 64.6 | 79.1 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 79.7 | 68 | 95 | 6 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 81.9 | 75.9 | 91 | 5 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 83.1 | 76.2 | 95 | 6 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 86.2 | 73.3 | 95 | 8 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 81.3 | 61.9 | 95 | 5 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 93.8 | 89.6 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 90 | 80.7 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Nigeria's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1967, 1984, 1992-1993, 1999-2001, 2004, 2011, 2013-2014, 2016-2020, 2022; the minimum is 61 in 1949.
Every published year for Nigeria, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Nigeria is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 70 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950, 1956, 1960-2006, 2008-2025. The remaining 10 are below 65.
Nigeria is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 49 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1961, 1965-1970, 1974-1975, 1978-1979, 1981-1986, 1991-1994, 1996-2004, 2010-2025. The remaining 31 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Nigeria is 2009 to 2010: Strain (75.6) to Crisis (89.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Nigeria records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.