Tonga
Tonga has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.
15 / 100
#187 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Tonga in November or December 2026: 0.5% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in Tonga in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Tonga, or with Tonga as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 0.5% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 78.3 (1997-1999; 2000s); lowest 50.2 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 5 · Country record
- 2020sovereign stress
- 1 Jan 2018capital controls
- 1997sovereign stress
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1 Jan 1994capital controls
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 57.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 60.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 56.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 14 Aug 2026, 4 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Tonga in this snapshot
Tonga (TON) records Calm pressure at 15.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 66.0.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 28 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Tonga has pressure score 15/100 in Calm. 186 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 20 share this score. Its competition rank is 187. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): San Marino (SMR), 15/100, tied.
Tonga's highest decade mean is recorded in 1997-1999 (3 readings, mean 78.3); 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 78.3). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 50.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-1999 | 3 | 78.3 | 78.3 | 78.3 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 78.3 | 78.3 | 78.3 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 8 | 75.6 | 57.1 | 78.3 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 50.2 | 15 | 78.3 | 0 |
Across 27 annual readings (1997-2025), Tonga's mapped-score peak is 78.3 in 1997-2016, 2021; the minimum is 15 in 2024-2025.
Tonga is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 25 of 27 readings: 1997-2016, 2019-2023. The remaining 2 are below 55.
Tonga is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 22 of 27 readings: 1997-2016, 2020-2021. The remaining 5 are below 65.
Tonga never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 27 published annual readings.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Tonga is 2023 to 2024: Watch (56.5) to Calm (15). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Tonga records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.