SGP, 2009
Published archive distance 0.2293. This similarity is not a forecast.
FRA
France
France has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
74 / 100
#24 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in France in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in France in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of France, or with France as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- <0.1% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population68.7M68,720,337 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalParisParis · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area551.7k km²551695 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$3.4T (2025)3.36632e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyEUREUR · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesFrenchFrench · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces304k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 67 (1946-1949); lowest 26.5 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 122 · Country record
- 2024election
- 7 Mar 2023street pressure
- 2022election
- 11 Jan 2020street pressure
- 5 Dec 2019street pressure
- 16 Nov 2019street pressure
- 2 Oct 2019street pressure
- 1 May 2019street pressure
- 16 Mar 2019street pressure
- 2 Feb 2019street pressure
- 5 Jan 2019street pressure
- 1 Dec 2018street pressure
Show all 122
- 15 Nov 2018street pressure
- 1 May 2018street pressure
- 19 Apr 2018street pressure
- 22 Mar 2018street pressure
- 12 Sep 2017street pressure
- 1 May 2017street pressure
- 2017election
- 1 Sep 2016street pressure
- 15 Jun 2016street pressure
- 26 May 2016street pressure
- 9 Mar 2016street pressure
- 26 Jan 2016street pressure
- 13 Nov 2015state of emergency
- 12 Apr 2014street pressure
- 26 Jan 2014street pressure
- 5 May 2013street pressure
- 21 Apr 2013street pressure
- 6 Mar 2013street pressure
- 13 Jan 2013street pressure
- 2012election
- 12 Oct 2010street pressure
- 7 Sep 2010street pressure
- 27 May 2010street pressure
- 1 May 2009street pressure
- 19 Mar 2009street pressure
- 29 Jan 2009street pressure
- 15 May 2008street pressure
- 20 Nov 2007street pressure
- 18 Oct 2007street pressure
- 2007election
- 4 Apr 2006street pressure
- 7 Mar 2006street pressure
- 10 Mar 2005street pressure
- 6 Feb 2005street pressure
- 17 Jan 2004street pressure
- 10 Jun 2003street pressure
- 13 May 2003street pressure
- 3 Apr 2003street pressure
- 26 Nov 2002street pressure
- 3 Oct 2002street pressure
- 2002election
- 6 Dec 2000street pressure
- 30 Aug 2000street pressure
- 30 Jun 2000street pressure
- 24 Mar 2000street pressure
- 4 Oct 1999street pressure
- 12 Oct 1998street pressure
- 20 Jun 1998street pressure
- 28 Mar 1998street pressure
- 14 Feb 1998street pressure
- 13 Jan 1998street pressure
- 2 Nov 1997street pressure
- 10 Jun 1997street pressure
- 23 Mar 1997street pressure
- 22 Feb 1997street pressure
- 15 Jan 1997street pressure
- 1997election
- 18 Nov 1996street pressure
- 17 Oct 1996street pressure
- 21 Sep 1996street pressure
- 28 Aug 1996street pressure
- 23 May 1996street pressure
- 18 Jan 1996street pressure
- 5 Dec 1995street pressure
- 7 Nov 1995street pressure
- 10 Oct 1995street pressure
- 19 Sep 1995street pressure
- 30 Jun 1995street pressure
- 2 May 1995street pressure
- 4 Mar 1995street pressure
- 7 Feb 1995street pressure
- 1995election
- 8 May 1994street pressure
- 12 Mar 1994street pressure
- 16 Jan 1994street pressure
- 15 Nov 1993street pressure
- 15 Sep 1993street pressure
- 19 Jun 1993street pressure
- 1993election
- 25 Jan 1992street pressure
- 17 Nov 1991street pressure
- 22 Oct 1991street pressure
- 29 Sep 1991street pressure
- 12 Jan 1991street pressure
- 5 Nov 1990street pressure
- 13 Sep 1990street pressure
- 29 Aug 1990street pressure
- 14 May 1990street pressure
- 1988election
- 1 Jan 1982capital controls
- 1982currency stress
- 1981currency stress
- 1981election
- 1978election
- 1 May 1976external support
- 1 Jul 1974external support
- 1974election
- 1973election
- 1969election
- 1 Aug 1968external support
- 1968election
- 1967election
- 1965election
- 1962election
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
- 1 May 1958external support
- 1958election
- 1946election
- 1946conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 68.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1951 | 55.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 54.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1954 | 56.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 55.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 70.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 52.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1958 | 57.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 57.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 56.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 71.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 48.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1964 | 46.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1965 | 54.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1966 | 51.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1967 | 48.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1968 | 44.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1969 | 41.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1970 | 38.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1971 | 36.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1972 | 34.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1973 | 33.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1974 | 32.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1975 | 56.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 31.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1977 | 31.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1978 | 30.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1979 | 30.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1980 | 29.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1981 | 28.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1982 | 27.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1983 | 27.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1984 | 27.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1985 | 27.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1986 | 27.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1987 | 27.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1988 | 26.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1989 | 24.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1990 | 60.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1991 | 56.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1992 | 56.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1993 | 68.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 56.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1995 | 56.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1996 | 41.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1997 | 56.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1998 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1999 | 39.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2000 | 44.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2001 | 33.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2002 | 27.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2003 | 22.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2004 | 27.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2005 | 32.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2006 | 57.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 32.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2008 | 48.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2009 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 37.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2011 | 21.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2012 | 24.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2013 | 53.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2014 | 55.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 51.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2018 | 57.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 60.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 56.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 20.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2022 | 18.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2023 | 22.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2024 | 18.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 21.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Singapore, 2009
Details
QAT, 2005
Published archive distance 0.2642. This similarity is not a forecast.
IRL, 2000
Published archive distance 0.2967. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy65%Confirmed: 1 of 8; Sourced: 7 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events30%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 60.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
France in this snapshot
France (FRA) records Strain pressure at 74.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 60.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
France has pressure score 74/100 in Strain. 23 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 24. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Syrian Arab Republic (SYR), 75/100, higher by 1; United States (USA), 73/100, lower by 1.
France's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 67). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 26.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 67 | 61.5 | 71.5 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 57.5 | 52.7 | 70.7 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 53.5 | 41.1 | 72.1 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 35.6 | 30.1 | 56.9 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 27.4 | 24.9 | 29.5 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 55.1 | 39.3 | 68.7 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 38.7 | 22.4 | 59.9 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 47.8 | 21.5 | 60.9 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 26.5 | 18.5 | 56.9 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), France's mapped-score peak is 72.1 in 1961; the minimum is 18.5 in 2022.
France is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 32 of 80 readings: 1946-1952, 1954-1956, 1958-1962, 1975, 1990-1995, 1997-1998, 2006, 2009, 2014-2016, 2018-2020. The remaining 48 are below 55.
France is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 7 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1956, 1961-1962, 1993. The remaining 73 are below 65.
France never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for France is 2020 to 2021: Watch (56.9) to Calm (20.7). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
France records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.