CHL, 2015
Published archive distance 0.3178. This similarity is not a forecast.
GRC
Greece
Greece has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
48 / 100
#111 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Greece in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in Greece in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Greece, or with Greece as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- <0.1% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population10.4M10,413,962 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalAthensAthens · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area132k km²131990 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$280.6B (2025)2.80636e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyEUREUR · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesGreekGreek · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces147k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsThe events record lacks the documented evidence needed for a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshot L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (1946-1949); lowest 39.9 (2000s).
Details
Recorded events 64 · Country record
- 20 Jan 2019street pressure
- 15 Jan 2018street pressure
- 2018sovereign stress
- 16 May 2017street pressure
- 10 Sep 2016street pressure
- 8 May 2016street pressure
- 4 Feb 2016street pressure
- 23 Jul 2015street pressure
- 24 Jun 2015street pressure
- 1 Jan 2015capital controls
- 2015sovereign stress
- 9 Apr 2014street pressure
Show all 64
- 16 Sep 2013street pressure
- 16 Jul 2013street pressure
- 11 Jun 2013street pressure
- 1 May 2013street pressure
- 6 Nov 2012street pressure
- 18 Oct 2012street pressure
- 9 Sep 2012street pressure
- 1 Mar 2012external support
- 7 Feb 2012street pressure
- 2012sovereign stress
- 17 Nov 2011street pressure
- 5 Oct 2011street pressure
- 10 Sep 2011street pressure
- 15 Jun 2011street pressure
- 11 May 2011street pressure
- 23 Feb 2011street pressure
- 15 Dec 2010street pressure
- 8 Jul 2010street pressure
- 29 Jun 2010street pressure
- 1 May 2010street pressure
- 1 May 2010external support
- 11 Mar 2010street pressure
- 24 Feb 2010street pressure
- 6 Dec 2009street pressure
- 10 Dec 2008street pressure
- 13 Feb 2008street pressure
- 12 Dec 2007street pressure
- 25 Oct 2006street pressure
- 20 Jun 2003street pressure
- 17 May 2001street pressure
- 26 Apr 2001street pressure
- 15 Jun 2000street pressure
- 16 Jan 1999street pressure
- 17 Nov 1997street pressure
- 1993currency stress
- 10 Jan 1991street pressure
- 18 Dec 1990street pressure
- 1985currency stress
- 1984currency stress
- 1983currency stress
- 1982currency stress
- 1981currency stress
- 25 Nov 1973leadership break
- 13 Dec 1967leadership break
- 21 Apr 1967leadership break
- 15 Jul 1965leadership break
- 1960sovereign stress
- 1953currency stress
- 1949conflict escalation
- 1948conflict escalation
- 1947conflict escalation
- 1946conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 67.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 63.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 73.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 73.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 61.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 87.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 62.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 59.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 58.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 56.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 55.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1980 | 54.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1981 | 67.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 47.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1985 | 44.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1986 | 42.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1987 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1988 | 39.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1989 | 35.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1990 | 55.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1991 | 55.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1992 | 43.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1993 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1994 | 29.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1995 | 47.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1996 | 27.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1997 | 33.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1998 | 46.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1999 | 39.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2000 | 26.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2001 | 32.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2002 | 31.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2003 | 44.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2004 | 24.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2005 | 24.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2006 | 43.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2007 | 43.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2008 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 86.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 38.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2015 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 80.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 51.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2018 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 41.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2020 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 51.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2022 | 50.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2023 | 35.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2024 | 24.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 25.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Chile, 2015
Details
ARE, 1994
Published archive distance 0.3688. This similarity is not a forecast.
KOR, 2014
Published archive distance 0.3689. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events18%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 1 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 3 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 57.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Greece in this snapshot
Greece (GRC) records Calm pressure at 48.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 57.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Greece has pressure score 48/100 in Calm. 110 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 111. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Côte d'Ivoire (CIV), 49.2/100, higher by 1.2; Algeria (DZA), 47.8/100, lower by 0.2.
Greece's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 39.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 4 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 71.6 | 63.4 | 87.2 | 3 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 76.7 | 61.8 | 87.6 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 63.2 | 55.3 | 84.6 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 52.9 | 35 | 67.6 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 43.8 | 27.5 | 59.9 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 39.9 | 24.7 | 64.2 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 66.8 | 38.9 | 86.2 | 3 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 42.4 | 24.9 | 67.1 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Greece's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1949; the minimum is 24.7 in 2005.
Greece is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 51 of 80 readings: 1946-1979, 1981-1983, 1987, 1990-1991, 1993, 2008-2013, 2015-2016, 2018, 2020. The remaining 29 are below 55.
Greece is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 33 of 80 readings: 1946-1956, 1960-1965, 1967-1971, 1974, 1981-1983, 2010-2013, 2015-2016, 2020. The remaining 47 are below 65.
Greece is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 14 of 80 readings: 1946-1952, 1967-1969, 1974, 2012, 2015-2016. The remaining 66 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Greece is 2020 to 2021: Strain (67.1) to Calm (51.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Greece records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.