equity
South Africa: local market stress
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a local market.
Point score: 68.8 high · pressure on local assets
South Africa
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure
ZAF
South Africa
South Africa has a Watch pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
62 / 100
#47 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in South Africa in November or December 2026: 21% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in South Africa in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of South Africa, or with South Africa as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 21% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Precision correction for the 22 October 2026 forecasts
Population64.7M64,747,319 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalPretoria, Bloemfontein, Cape TownPretoria, Bloemfontein, Cape Town · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area1.2M km²1221037 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$427.2B (2025)4.27184e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyZARZAR · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesAfrikaans + moreAfrikaans, English, Southern Ndebele, Northern Sotho, Southern Sotho, Swazi, Tswana, Tsonga, Venda, Xhosa, Zulu · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces89k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 80.8 (1980s); lowest 38.6 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 85 · Country record
- 8 Jul 2021street pressure
- Jul 2021conflict escalation
- Jan 2021conflict escalation
- 15 Mar 2020state of emergency
- 23 Oct 2015street pressure
- 30 Sep 2015street pressure
- 7 Mar 2012street pressure
- 18 Aug 2010street pressure
- 4 Dec 2007street pressure
- 13 Jun 2007street pressure
- 2007sovereign stress
- 3 Sep 2004street pressure
Show all 85
- 2004sovereign stress
- 2002currency stress
- 16 Aug 2001street pressure
- 6 Jul 2001street pressure
- 2001currency stress
- 11 May 2000street pressure
- 13 Mar 1997street pressure
- 1 May 1996street pressure
- Mar 1996conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- Dec 1995conflict escalation
- 6 Jun 1995street pressure
- Oct 1994conflict escalation
- 6 Apr 1994street pressure
- 29 Mar 1994street pressure
- Mar 1994conflict escalation
- 17 Jan 1994street pressure
- Jul 1993conflict escalation
- 12 Apr 1993street pressure
- 1993sovereign stress
- 17 Oct 1992street pressure
- 7 Sep 1992street pressure
- 4 Aug 1992street pressure
- 20 Jul 1992street pressure
- 16 Jun 1992street pressure
- Feb 1992conflict escalation
- 25 Jan 1992street pressure
- Sep 1991conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 1991street pressure
- 29 Jan 1991street pressure
- 18 Aug 1990street pressure
- Aug 1990conflict escalation
- 26 May 1990street pressure
- 7 Mar 1990street pressure
- Mar 1990conflict escalation
- 14 Feb 1990street pressure
- Dec 1989conflict escalation
- Sep 1989conflict escalation
- Apr 1989conflict escalation
- 1989sovereign stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 12 Jun 1986state of emergency
- 1986conflict escalation
- 21 Jul 1985state of emergency
- 1 Jan 1985capital controls
- 1985currency stress
- 1985sovereign stress
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982currency stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1978capital controls
- 1978conflict escalation
- 4 Nov 1977new sanctions
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1976capital controls
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 72.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 62.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 61.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 60.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 60.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 60.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1962 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 62.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 65.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 73.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 78.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1980 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 88.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1985 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 84.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 78.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 86.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1996 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 57.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1998 | 55.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1999 | 53.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2000 | 50.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2001 | 56.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2002 | 53.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2003 | 56.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 61.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 55.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 53.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2009 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 46.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2011 | 55.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 57.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 57.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 50.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2016 | 57.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 56.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 47.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2019 | 45.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2020 | 56.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 49.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2022 | 35.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2023 | 35.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2024 | 31.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 23.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
3 points
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Platinum: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 48.2 high · upward pressure
South Africa
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure
supply
Palladium: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 28.6 elevated · upward pressure
South Africa · Russia
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Hungary, 2005
Details
HUN, 2005
Published archive distance 0.2415. This similarity is not a forecast.
PRT, 1989
Published archive distance 0.2599. This similarity is not a forecast.
LTU, 2008
Published archive distance 0.2637. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy53%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 7 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 1 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events42%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 1 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 4 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 1 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 57.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
South Africa in this snapshot
South Africa (ZAF) records Watch pressure at 62.0 of 100 and touches 3 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 57.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 3 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
South Africa has pressure score 62/100 in Watch. 46 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 10 share this score. Its competition rank is 47. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Rwanda (RWA), 62/100, tied; Zimbabwe (ZWE), 62/100, tied.
South Africa's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 80.8). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 38.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 74.6 | 72.9 | 76.8 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 62.3 | 60.6 | 72.4 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 65.7 | 60.4 | 74.5 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 70.9 | 64.6 | 78.7 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 80.8 | 64.7 | 88.9 | 6 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 75.3 | 53.9 | 95 | 5 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 59.5 | 50.7 | 71.2 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 52.9 | 45 | 57.8 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 38.6 | 23.2 | 56.1 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), South Africa's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1990, 1992-1993; the minimum is 23.2 in 2025.
South Africa is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 67 of 80 readings: 1946-1998, 2001, 2003-2007, 2009, 2011-2014, 2016-2017, 2020. The remaining 13 are below 55.
South Africa is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 33 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1966-1974, 1977-1978, 1980-1983, 1985-1994, 2005, 2007, 2009. The remaining 47 are below 65.
South Africa is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 11 of 80 readings: 1982-1983, 1985-1987, 1989-1994. The remaining 69 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for South Africa is 2020 to 2021: Watch (56.1) to Calm (49.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
South Africa records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.