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Hong Kong

Hong Kong has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

23.6 / 100

#159 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Hong Kong in November or December 2026: 0.5% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Hong Kong in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Hong Kong, or with Hong Kong as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.5% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population7.5M
CapitalCity of Victoria
Area1.1k km²
GDP~$427.3B (2025)
CurrencyHKD
LanguagesEnglish, Chinese
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
30.5
L3 Politics
75.25
L4 Events
33.5
L5 Information
43.01
L6 Society
62.5

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 71.5 (1950s); lowest 21.7 (2000s).

Details

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Hong Kong · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194658.0Watcharchive reading
194758.0Watcharchive reading
194858.0Watcharchive reading
194942.3Calmarchive reading
195071.9Strainarchive reading
195172.4Strainarchive reading
195272.2Strainarchive reading
195372.0Strainarchive reading
195471.8Strainarchive reading
195571.5Strainarchive reading
195671.4Strainarchive reading
195771.1Strainarchive reading
195870.8Strainarchive reading
195970.4Strainarchive reading
196069.6Strainarchive reading
196158.2Watcharchive reading
196257.8Watcharchive reading
196357.3Watcharchive reading
196457.2Watcharchive reading
196556.9Watcharchive reading
196656.9Watcharchive reading
196756.9Watcharchive reading
196856.6Watcharchive reading
196956.2Watcharchive reading
197055.6Watcharchive reading
197155.4Watcharchive reading
197255.0Watcharchive reading
197352.7Calmarchive reading
197452.7Calmarchive reading
197553.1Calmarchive reading
197649.6Calmarchive reading
197747.5Calmarchive reading
197842.9Calmarchive reading
197940.7Calmarchive reading
198035.8Calmarchive reading
198133.1Calmarchive reading
198232.8Calmarchive reading
198331.3Calmarchive reading
198427.5Calmarchive reading
198527.6Calmarchive reading
198622.5Calmarchive reading
198720.6Calmarchive reading
198820.6Calmarchive reading
198919.9Calmarchive reading
199017.9Calmarchive reading
199117.9Calmarchive reading
199217.9Calmarchive reading
199317.9Calmarchive reading
199417.9Calmarchive reading
199517.9Calmarchive reading
199617.9Calmarchive reading
199719.0Calmarchive reading
199857.2Watcharchive reading
199919.3Calmarchive reading
200017.5Calmarchive reading
200117.5Calmarchive reading
200217.5Calmarchive reading
200317.5Calmarchive reading
200417.8Calmarchive reading
200518.4Calmarchive reading
200618.4Calmarchive reading
200718.1Calmarchive reading
200817.5Calmarchive reading
200956.9Watcharchive reading
201017.5Calmarchive reading
201118.1Calmarchive reading
201220.2Calmarchive reading
201320.8Calmarchive reading
201421.9Calmarchive reading
201523.1Calmarchive reading
201625.6Calmarchive reading
201726.8Calmarchive reading
201826.2Calmarchive reading
201961.6Watcharchive reading
202059.5Watcharchive reading
202155.4Watcharchive reading
202260.7Watcharchive reading
202354.2Calmarchive reading
202435.3Calmarchive reading
202523.6Calmarchive reading
Hong Kong · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202623.6Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Singapore, 1992

Details
Singapore, 1992Uruguay, 2006Italy, 2015

SGP, 1992

Published archive distance 0.4069. This similarity is not a forecast.

URY, 2006

Published archive distance 0.4544. This similarity is not a forecast.

ITA, 2015

Published archive distance 0.4606. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Hong Kong
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-170Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-272Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-142Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z1Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy71%
L3 Politics64%
L4 Events62%
L5 Information87%
L6 Society62%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 66.3

Hong Kong in this snapshot

Hong Kong (HKG) records Calm pressure at 23.6 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 66.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Hong Kong has pressure score 23.6/100 in Calm. 158 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 159. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Fiji (FJI), 23.7/100, higher by 0.1; Iceland (ISL), 23.3/100, lower by 0.3.

Hong Kong's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 71.5). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 21.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Hong Kong: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949454.142.3580
1950-19591071.570.472.40
1960-19691058.456.269.60
1970-19791050.540.755.60
1980-19891027.219.935.80
1990-19991022.117.957.20
2000-20091021.717.556.90
2010-20191026.217.561.60
2020-2025648.123.660.70

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Hong Kong's mapped-score peak is 72.4 in 1951; the minimum is 17.5 in 2000-2003, 2008, 2010.

Hong Kong is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 32 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1972, 1998, 2009, 2019-2022. The remaining 48 are below 55.

Hong Kong is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 11 of 80 readings: 1950-1960. The remaining 69 are below 65.

Hong Kong never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Hong Kong is 2022 to 2023: Watch (60.7) to Calm (54.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Hong Kong records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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