CassandrIA
FINFinland flag

Finland

Finland has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

38 / 100

#124 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Finland in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Finland in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Finland, or with Finland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population5.6M
CapitalHelsinki
Area338.4k km²
GDP$317B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesFinnish, Swedish
Armed forces22k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
39.07
L3 Politics
11.71
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
14.78
L6 Society
40

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 68.2 (1946-1949); lowest 22.7 (1980s).

Details

Recorded events 18 · Country record

  • 2024election
  • 2018election
  • 24 Sep 2016street pressure
  • 18 Sep 2015street pressure
  • 2012election
  • 2006election
  • 2000election
  • 1994election
  • 1993currency stress
  • 1988election
  • 1982election
  • 1978election
Show all 18
  • 1968currency stress
  • 1968election
  • 1962election
  • 1958currency stress
  • 1956election
  • 1950election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Finland · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194671.2Strainarchive reading
194769.7Strainarchive reading
194868.6Strainarchive reading
194963.4Watcharchive reading
195062.7Watcharchive reading
195156.0Watcharchive reading
195255.7Watcharchive reading
195365.3Strainarchive reading
195455.3Watcharchive reading
195554.9Calmarchive reading
195655.1Watcharchive reading
195754.3Calmarchive reading
195863.9Watcharchive reading
195950.6Calmarchive reading
196048.2Calmarchive reading
196146.2Calmarchive reading
196246.9Calmarchive reading
196345.4Calmarchive reading
196444.2Calmarchive reading
196541.6Calmarchive reading
196641.0Calmarchive reading
196740.2Calmarchive reading
196839.6Calmarchive reading
196936.7Calmarchive reading
197035.3Calmarchive reading
197134.5Calmarchive reading
197232.1Calmarchive reading
197329.6Calmarchive reading
197428.3Calmarchive reading
197527.6Calmarchive reading
197627.7Calmarchive reading
197727.6Calmarchive reading
197827.2Calmarchive reading
197924.8Calmarchive reading
198023.8Calmarchive reading
198123.5Calmarchive reading
198223.1Calmarchive reading
198323.0Calmarchive reading
198422.7Calmarchive reading
198522.5Calmarchive reading
198622.4Calmarchive reading
198722.1Calmarchive reading
198822.1Calmarchive reading
198921.5Calmarchive reading
199021.4Calmarchive reading
199159.9Watcharchive reading
199255.9Watcharchive reading
199355.9Watcharchive reading
199421.0Calmarchive reading
199520.9Calmarchive reading
199620.9Calmarchive reading
199720.8Calmarchive reading
199820.7Calmarchive reading
199920.6Calmarchive reading
200020.5Calmarchive reading
200120.4Calmarchive reading
200220.4Calmarchive reading
200320.6Calmarchive reading
200420.6Calmarchive reading
200520.5Calmarchive reading
200620.1Calmarchive reading
200720.0Calmarchive reading
200820.0Calmarchive reading
200955.6Watcharchive reading
201019.9Calmarchive reading
201119.8Calmarchive reading
201255.6Watcharchive reading
201355.5Watcharchive reading
201455.5Watcharchive reading
201528.3Calmarchive reading
201629.3Calmarchive reading
201722.5Calmarchive reading
201819.4Calmarchive reading
201915.7Calmarchive reading
202025.1Calmarchive reading
202119.8Calmarchive reading
202219.5Calmarchive reading
202330.0Calmarchive reading
202429.3Calmarchive reading
202521.0Calmarchive reading
Finland · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202638Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Netherlands, 2000

Details
Netherlands, 2000Italy, 2003Norway, 2004

NLD, 2000

Published archive distance 0.1773. This similarity is not a forecast.

ITA, 2003

Published archive distance 0.2058. This similarity is not a forecast.

NOR, 2004

Published archive distance 0.206. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Finland
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 58.6

Finland in this snapshot

Finland (FIN) records Calm pressure at 38.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 58.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Finland has pressure score 38/100 in Calm. 123 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 124. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Australia (AUS), 38/100, tied; Zambia (ZMB), 36.2/100, lower by 1.8.

Finland's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 68.2). The lowest is 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 22.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Finland: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949468.263.471.20
1950-19591057.450.665.30
1960-1969104336.748.20
1970-19791029.524.835.30
1980-19891022.721.523.80
1990-19991031.820.659.90
2000-20091023.92055.60
2010-20191032.115.755.60
2020-2025624.119.5300

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Finland's mapped-score peak is 71.2 in 1946; the minimum is 15.7 in 2019.

Finland is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 18 of 80 readings: 1946-1954, 1956, 1958, 1991-1993, 2009, 2012-2014. The remaining 62 are below 55.

Finland is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 4 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1953. The remaining 76 are below 65.

Finland never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Finland is 2014 to 2015: Watch (55.5) to Calm (28.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Finland records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts