EST, 2005
Published archive distance 0.3728. This similarity is not a forecast.
GTM
Guatemala
Guatemala has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
55 / 100
#73 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Guatemala in November or December 2026: 4.5% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Guatemala in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Guatemala, or with Guatemala as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 4.5% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population18.7M18,687,881 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalGuatemala CityGuatemala City
Area108.9k km²108889
GDP$123.3B (2025)123.3 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyGTQGTQ , Guatemalan quetzal
LanguagesSpanishSpanish
Armed forces43k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 88.6 (1946-1949); lowest 53 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 78 · Country record
- 2023election
- 2022sovereign stress
- 2020sovereign stress
- 2019election
- 6 Sep 2015street pressure
- 27 Aug 2015street pressure
- 16 May 2015street pressure
- 2015election
- 2012sovereign stress
- 2011election
- 1 Apr 2009external support
- 2007election
Show all 78
- 13 Aug 2004street pressure
- 8 Jun 2004street pressure
- 1 Jun 2003external support
- 2003election
- 21 Aug 2002street pressure
- 1 Apr 2002external support
- 1999election
- 7 Mar 1997street pressure
- 1996election
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- 1995election
- Jan 1994conflict escalation
- 21 May 1993street pressure
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 1991external support
- Jan 1991conflict escalation
- 1991election
- May 1990conflict escalation
- Jan 1990conflict escalation
- 1990currency stress
- 1990election
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987currency stress
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986currency stress
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985election
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1984capital controls
- 1984election
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983sovereign stress
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982election
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1980capital controls
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978election
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974election
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970election
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966election
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964election
- 1963conflict escalation
- 1958election
- 1957election
- 1954election
- 1954conflict escalation
- 1950election
- 1949conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 92.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 91.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 89.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 78.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 81.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 79.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 71.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 73.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 89.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 81.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 88.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 81.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 81.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 65.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 69.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 63.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 63.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 55.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 55.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 55.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 53.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2015 | 54.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2016 | 52.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2017 | 54.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2018 | 53.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2019 | 53.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2020 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 50.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2022 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 55.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 43.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 30.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Estonia, 2005
Details
IRL, 1956
Published archive distance 0.3867. This similarity is not a forecast.
SAU, 1999
Published archive distance 0.4005. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy70%Confirmed: 2 of 8; Sourced: 6 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics84%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events70%Confirmed: 2 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information87%Confirmed: 2 of 3; Sourced: 1 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society75%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 1 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 73.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Guatemala in this snapshot
Guatemala (GTM) records Watch pressure at 55.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 73.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Guatemala has pressure score 55/100 in Watch. 72 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 18 share this score. Its competition rank is 73. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Georgia (GEO), 55/100, tied; Guinea (GIN), 55/100, tied.
Guatemala's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 88.6). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 53). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 88.6 | 75.5 | 94.8 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 79.5 | 64.5 | 95 | 4 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 76.8 | 67 | 81.4 | 2 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 71.9 | 70.2 | 73.7 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 83.8 | 70.2 | 95 | 7 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 78 | 67.2 | 88 | 5 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 66.1 | 55.1 | 70.9 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 57.6 | 52.1 | 71.5 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 53 | 30.8 | 72.1 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Guatemala's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1955, 1983, 1985; the minimum is 30.8 in 2025.
Guatemala is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 71 of 80 readings: 1946-2013, 2020, 2022-2023. The remaining 9 are below 55.
Guatemala is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 62 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1954-2006, 2012-2013, 2020. The remaining 18 are below 65.
Guatemala is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 21 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1954-1957, 1964, 1966, 1982-1987, 1989-1994. The remaining 59 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Guatemala is 2023 to 2024: Watch (55.9) to Calm (43.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Guatemala records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.