{"schema":"cassandria.pythia_public_issue.v1","status":"READY_FOR_REGIA_SEAL","aggregation":"Available G0 historical baseline only; stale G1 excluded. Class-level availability is explicit. No foreign probability or calibrated combined forecast.","ledger_sha256":"425d6e4aea05fae733c9cdcd2e7036a8cd6b5aa25539e5b058b507771a802a9e","generated_at":"2026-10-27T17:50:57Z","issue_date":"2026-10-27","issue_label":"27 Oct 2026","window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","window_label":"25 Nov 2026","counts":{"statements":551,"cells":618,"numeric_estimates":551,"countries":206,"classes":3,"tier1":40,"issues":0},"iso2":{"AFG":"AF","AGO":"AO","ALB":"AL","AND":"AD","ARE":"AE","ARG":"AR","ARM":"AM","ATG":"AG","AUS":"AU","AUT":"AT","AZE":"AZ","BDI":"BI","BEL":"BE","BEN":"BJ","BFA":"BF","BGD":"BD","BGR":"BG","BHR":"BH","BHS":"BS","BIH":"BA","BLR":"BY","BLZ":"BZ","BMU":"BM","BOL":"BO","BRA":"BR","BRB":"BB","BRN":"BN","BTN":"BT","BWA":"BW","CAF":"CF","CAN":"CA","CHE":"CH","CHL":"CL","CHN":"CN","CIV":"CI","CMR":"CM","COD":"CD","COG":"CG","COL":"CO","COM":"KM","CPV":"CV","CRI":"CR","CUB":"CU","CYM":"KY","CYP":"CY","CZE":"CZ","DEU":"DE","DJI":"DJ","DMA":"DM","DNK":"DK","DOM":"DO","DZA":"DZ","ECU":"EC","EGY":"EG","ERI":"ER","ESH":"EH","ESP":"ES","EST":"EE","ETH":"ET","FIN":"FI","FJI":"FJ","FRA":"FR","FSM":"FM","GAB":"GA","GBR":"GB","GEO":"GE","GHA":"GH","GIB":"GI","GIN":"GN","GMB":"GM","GNB":"GW","GNQ":"GQ","GRC":"GR","GRD":"GD","GRL":"GL","GTM":"GT","GUY":"GY","HKG":"HK","HND":"HN","HRV":"HR","HTI":"HT","HUN":"HU","IDN":"ID","IND":"IN","IRL":"IE","IRN":"IR","IRQ":"IQ","ISL":"IS","ISR":"IL","ITA":"IT","JAM":"JM","JOR":"JO","JPN":"JP","KAZ":"KZ","KEN":"KE","KGZ":"KG","KHM":"KH","KIR":"KI","KNA":"KN","KOR":"KR","KWT":"KW","LAO":"LA","LBN":"LB","LBR":"LR","LBY":"LY","LCA":"LC","LIE":"LI","LKA":"LK","LSO":"LS","LTU":"LT","LUX":"LU","LVA":"LV","MAC":"MO","MAR":"MA","MCO":"MC","MDA":"MD","MDG":"MG","MDV":"MV","MEX":"MX","MHL":"MH","MKD":"MK","MLI":"ML","MLT":"MT","MMR":"MM","MNE":"ME","MNG":"MN","MOZ":"MZ","MRT":"MR","MUS":"MU","MWI":"MW","MYS":"MY","NAM":"NA","NCL":"NC","NER":"NE","NGA":"NG","NIC":"NI","NLD":"NL","NOR":"NO","NPL":"NP","NRU":"NR","NZL":"NZ","OMN":"OM","PAK":"PK","PAN":"PA","PER":"PE","PHL":"PH","PLW":"PW","PNG":"PG","POL":"PL","PRI":"PR","PRK":"KP","PRT":"PT","PRY":"PY","PSE":"PS","QAT":"QA","ROU":"RO","RUS":"RU","RWA":"RW","SAU":"SA","SDN":"SD","SEN":"SN","SGP":"SG","SLB":"SB","SLE":"SL","SLV":"SV","SMR":"SM","SOM":"SO","SRB":"RS","SSD":"SS","STP":"ST","SUR":"SR","SVK":"SK","SVN":"SI","SWE":"SE","SWZ":"SZ","SYC":"SC","SYR":"SY","TCD":"TD","TGO":"TG","THA":"TH","TJK":"TJ","TKM":"TM","TLS":"TL","TON":"TO","TTO":"TT","TUN":"TN","TUR":"TR","TUV":"TV","TWN":"TW","TZA":"TZ","UGA":"UG","UKR":"UA","UNK":"XK","URY":"UY","USA":"US","UZB":"UZ","VAT":"VA","VCT":"VC","VEN":"VE","VNM":"VN","VUT":"VU","WSM":"WS","YEM":"YE","ZAF":"ZA","ZMB":"ZM","ZWE":"ZW"},"sectors":[{"id":"security","label":"Security","classes":["REPRESSIONE_LETALE"]},{"id":"economy","label":"Economy","classes":["CURRENCY_CRASH"]},{"id":"politics","label":"Politics","classes":["LEADERSHIP_EXIT"]}],"classes":{"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"label":"Lethal repression","sector":"security","n":206,"verdict":"PUBBLICABILE_CON_CORREZIONI","n_numeric":206,"selectable":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","not_a_pure_empirical_frequency":true},"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"label":"Currency crash","sector":"economy","n":206,"verdict":"PUBBLICABILE_CON_CORREZIONI","n_numeric":139,"selectable":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","not_a_pure_empirical_frequency":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"label":"Leader exit","sector":"politics","n":206,"verdict":"PUBBLICABILE_CON_CORREZIONI","n_numeric":206,"selectable":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","not_a_pure_empirical_frequency":true}},"tier1":["ARG","AUS","AUT","BRA","CAN","CHE","CHN","DEU","DNK","EGY","ESP","FIN","FRA","GBR","GRC","IDN","IND","IRN","ISR","ITA","JPN","KOR","MEX","NGA","NLD","NOR","NZL","PAK","POL","RUS","SAU","SGP","SWE","TUR","TWN","UKR","USA","VEN","VNM","ZAF"],"countries":{"AFG":{"name":"Afghanistan","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":67.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004027,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001571,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.022723},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AFN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004027,"currency_dependency_group":"AFN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Afghanistan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001571,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Afghanistan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.022723,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Afghanistan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"AGO":{"name":"Angola","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":67.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AOA","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"AOA","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Angola, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Angola leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Angola within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ALB":{"name":"Albania","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":63.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000661,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000416},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ALL","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000661,"currency_dependency_group":"ALL","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Albania, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Albania leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000416,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Albania within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"AND":{"name":"Andorra","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":60.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Andorra, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Andorra leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Andorra within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ARE":{"name":"United Arab Emirates","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001084,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AED","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001084,"currency_dependency_group":"AED","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of United Arab Emirates, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in United Arab Emirates leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in United Arab Emirates within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ARG":{"name":"Argentina","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004447,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.0088},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ARS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004447,"currency_dependency_group":"ARS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Argentina, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Argentina leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.0088,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Argentina within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ARM":{"name":"Armenia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":62.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000685,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000978},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AMD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000685,"currency_dependency_group":"AMD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Armenia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Armenia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000978,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Armenia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ATG":{"name":"Antigua and Barbuda","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":63.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XCD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XCD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Antigua and Barbuda, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Antigua and Barbuda leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Antigua and Barbuda within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"AUS":{"name":"Australia","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":56.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AUD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"AUD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Australia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Australia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Australia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"AUT":{"name":"Austria","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":58.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Austria, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Austria leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Austria within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"AZE":{"name":"Azerbaijan","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AZN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"AZN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Azerbaijan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Azerbaijan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Azerbaijan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BDI":{"name":"Burundi","tier":"C","band":"orange","conf":71.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002763,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000925,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.004154},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BIF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002763,"currency_dependency_group":"BIF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Burundi, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000925,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Burundi leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004154,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Burundi within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BEL":{"name":"Belgium","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Belgium, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Belgium leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Belgium within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BEN":{"name":"Benin","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":61.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.006369},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Benin, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Benin leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.006369,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Benin within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BFA":{"name":"Burkina Faso","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":66.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001077,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.016304},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Burkina Faso, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001077,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Burkina Faso leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.016304,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Burkina Faso within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BGD":{"name":"Bangladesh","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":65.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002444,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.01201},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BDT","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002444,"currency_dependency_group":"BDT","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bangladesh, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bangladesh leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.01201,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bangladesh within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BGR":{"name":"Bulgaria","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":63.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bulgaria, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bulgaria leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bulgaria within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BHR":{"name":"Bahrain","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":60.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001909,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000598,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001895},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BHD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001909,"currency_dependency_group":"BHD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bahrain, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000598,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bahrain leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001895,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bahrain within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BHS":{"name":"Bahamas","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":68.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BSD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"BSD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bahamas, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bahamas leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bahamas within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BIH":{"name":"Bosnia and Herzegovina","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":65.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BAM","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"BAM","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bosnia and Herzegovina leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bosnia and Herzegovina within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BLR":{"name":"Belarus","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":62.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BYN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"BYN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Belarus, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Belarus leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Belarus within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BLZ":{"name":"Belize","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":72.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BZD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"BZD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Belize, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Belize leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Belize within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BMU":{"name":"Bermuda","tier":"L","band":"green","conf":55.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BMD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"BMD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bermuda, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bermuda leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bermuda within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BOL":{"name":"Bolivia","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":74.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002444,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.01201},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BOB","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002444,"currency_dependency_group":"BOB","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bolivia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bolivia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.01201,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bolivia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BRA":{"name":"Brazil","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BRL","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"BRL","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Brazil, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Brazil leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Brazil within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BRB":{"name":"Barbados","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":58.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BBD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"BBD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Barbados, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Barbados leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Barbados within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BRN":{"name":"Brunei","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":67.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BND","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"BND","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Brunei, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Brunei leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Brunei within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BTN":{"name":"Bhutan","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":57.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BTN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"BTN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Bhutan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Bhutan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Bhutan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"BWA":{"name":"Botswana","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":62.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000662,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000585},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"BWP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000662,"currency_dependency_group":"BWP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Botswana, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Botswana leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000585,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Botswana within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CAF":{"name":"Central African Republic","tier":"C","band":"orange","conf":66.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001445,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.005792},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XAF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XAF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Central African Republic, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001445,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Central African Republic leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.005792,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Central African Republic within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CAN":{"name":"Canada","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":55.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CAD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"CAD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Canada, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Canada leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Canada within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CHE":{"name":"Switzerland","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":55.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CHF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"CHF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Switzerland, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Switzerland leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Switzerland within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CHL":{"name":"Chile","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001352},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CLP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"CLP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Chile, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Chile leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001352,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Chile within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CHN":{"name":"China","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.006369},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CNY","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"CNY","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of China, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in China leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.006369,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in China within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CIV":{"name":"Côte d'Ivoire","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":62.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000246,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001391},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Côte d'Ivoire, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000246,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Côte d'Ivoire leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001391,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Côte d'Ivoire within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CMR":{"name":"Cameroon","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":61.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000925,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.013912},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XAF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XAF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Cameroon, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000925,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Cameroon leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.013912,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Cameroon within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"COD":{"name":"DR Congo","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":66.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00377,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001445,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.019398},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CDF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00377,"currency_dependency_group":"CDF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of DR Congo, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001445,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in DR Congo leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.019398,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in DR Congo within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"COG":{"name":"Congo","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":68.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XAF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XAF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Congo, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Congo leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Congo within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"COL":{"name":"Colombia","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":67.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00311,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001077,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.016304},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":null,"shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00311,"currency_dependency_group":null,"eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Colombia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001077,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Colombia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.016304,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Colombia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"COM":{"name":"Comoros","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":70.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001889,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000564,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001885},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KMF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001889,"currency_dependency_group":"KMF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Comoros, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000564,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Comoros leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001885,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Comoros within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CPV":{"name":"Cabo Verde","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":64.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CVE","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"CVE","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Cabo Verde, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Cabo Verde leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Cabo Verde within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CRI":{"name":"Costa Rica","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000664,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000725},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CRC","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000664,"currency_dependency_group":"CRC","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Costa Rica, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Costa Rica leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000725,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Costa Rica within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CUB":{"name":"Cuba","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":59.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CUP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"CUP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Cuba, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Cuba leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Cuba within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CYM":{"name":"Cayman Islands","tier":"L","band":"green","conf":59.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KYD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"KYD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Cayman Islands, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Cayman Islands leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Cayman Islands within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CYP":{"name":"Cyprus","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":63.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Cyprus, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Cyprus leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Cyprus within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"CZE":{"name":"Czechia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":63.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CZK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"CZK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Czechia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Czechia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Czechia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"DEU":{"name":"Germany","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":60.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Germany, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Germany leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Germany within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"DJI":{"name":"Djibouti","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001879,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000445,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001676},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"DJF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001879,"currency_dependency_group":"DJF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Djibouti, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000445,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Djibouti leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001676,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Djibouti within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"DMA":{"name":"Dominica","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":62.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XCD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XCD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Dominica, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Dominica leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Dominica within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"DNK":{"name":"Denmark","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":55.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"DKK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"DKK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Denmark, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Denmark leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Denmark within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"DOM":{"name":"Dominican Republic","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":61.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"DOP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"DOP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Dominican Republic, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Dominican Republic leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Dominican Republic within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"DZA":{"name":"Algeria","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001117,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"DZD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001117,"currency_dependency_group":"DZD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Algeria, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Algeria leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Algeria within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ECU":{"name":"Ecuador","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":66.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003586},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"USD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"USD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Ecuador, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Ecuador leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003586,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Ecuador within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"EGY":{"name":"Egypt","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001117,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003279},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EGP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001117,"currency_dependency_group":"EGP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Egypt, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Egypt leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003279,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Egypt within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ERI":{"name":"Eritrea","tier":"C","band":"orange","conf":66.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00311,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001077,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.004868},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ERN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00311,"currency_dependency_group":"ERN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Eritrea, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001077,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Eritrea leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004868,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Eritrea within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ESH":{"name":"Western Sahara","tier":"C","band":"orange","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000925,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.004154},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MAD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"MAD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Western Sahara, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000925,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Western Sahara leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004154,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Western Sahara within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ESP":{"name":"Spain","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":58.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001958},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Spain, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Spain leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001958,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Spain within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"EST":{"name":"Estonia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Estonia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Estonia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Estonia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ETH":{"name":"Ethiopia","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":63.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00311,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001077,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.016304},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ETB","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00311,"currency_dependency_group":"ETB","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Ethiopia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001077,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Ethiopia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.016304,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Ethiopia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"FIN":{"name":"Finland","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":58.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Finland, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Finland leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Finland within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"FJI":{"name":"Fiji","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"FJD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"FJD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Fiji, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Fiji leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Fiji within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"FRA":{"name":"France","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":60.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of France, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in France leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in France within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"FSM":{"name":"Micronesia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":68.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"USD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"USD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Micronesia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Micronesia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Micronesia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GAB":{"name":"Gabon","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":67.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XAF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XAF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Gabon, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Gabon leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Gabon within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GBR":{"name":"United Kingdom","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GBP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"GBP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of United Kingdom, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in United Kingdom leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in United Kingdom within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GEO":{"name":"Georgia","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":68.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GEL","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"GEL","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Georgia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Georgia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Georgia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GHA":{"name":"Ghana","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000661,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001394},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GHS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000661,"currency_dependency_group":"GHS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Ghana, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Ghana leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001394,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Ghana within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GIB":{"name":"Gibraltar","tier":"L","band":"green","conf":51.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000662,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000585},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GIP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000662,"currency_dependency_group":"GIP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Gibraltar, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Gibraltar leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000585,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Gibraltar within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GIN":{"name":"Guinea","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.008089},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GNF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"GNF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Guinea, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Guinea leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.008089,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Guinea within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GMB":{"name":"Gambia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001352},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GMD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"GMD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Gambia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Gambia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001352,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Gambia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GNB":{"name":"Guinea-Bissau","tier":"C","band":"orange","conf":72.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001445,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.005792},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Guinea-Bissau, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001445,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Guinea-Bissau leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.005792,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Guinea-Bissau within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GNQ":{"name":"Equatorial Guinea","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":69.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003586},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XAF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XAF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Equatorial Guinea, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Equatorial Guinea leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003586,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Equatorial Guinea within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GRC":{"name":"Greece","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9.3e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Greece, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9.3e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Greece leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Greece within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GRD":{"name":"Grenada","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":67.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XCD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XCD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Grenada, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Grenada leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Grenada within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GRL":{"name":"Greenland","tier":"L","band":"green","conf":58.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000585},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"DKK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"DKK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Greenland, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Greenland leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000585,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Greenland within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GTM":{"name":"Guatemala","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":73.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GTQ","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"GTQ","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Guatemala, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Guatemala leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Guatemala within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"GUY":{"name":"Guyana","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":63.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"GYD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"GYD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Guyana, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Guyana leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Guyana within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"HKG":{"name":"Hong Kong","tier":"L","band":"green","conf":66.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"HKD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"HKD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Hong Kong, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Hong Kong leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Hong Kong within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"HND":{"name":"Honduras","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":72.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002444,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.01201},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"HNL","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002444,"currency_dependency_group":"HNL","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Honduras, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Honduras leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.01201,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Honduras within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"HRV":{"name":"Croatia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000484},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Croatia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Croatia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000484,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Croatia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"HTI":{"name":"Haiti","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":61.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004447,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.02947},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"HTG","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004447,"currency_dependency_group":"HTG","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Haiti, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Haiti leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.02947,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Haiti within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"HUN":{"name":"Hungary","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":67.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9.3e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"HUF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"HUF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Hungary, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9.3e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Hungary leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Hungary within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"IDN":{"name":"Indonesia","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"IDR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"IDR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Indonesia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Indonesia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Indonesia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"IND":{"name":"India","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.006369},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"INR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"INR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of India, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in India leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.006369,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in India within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"IRL":{"name":"Ireland","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Ireland, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Ireland leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Ireland within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"IRN":{"name":"Iran","tier":"A","band":"red","conf":50.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004447,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.02947},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"IRR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004447,"currency_dependency_group":"IRR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Iran, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Iran leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.02947,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Iran within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"IRQ":{"name":"Iraq","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":62.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00311,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001077,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.016304},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"IQD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00311,"currency_dependency_group":"IQD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Iraq, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001077,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Iraq leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.016304,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Iraq within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ISL":{"name":"Iceland","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":62.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ISK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"ISK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Iceland, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Iceland leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Iceland within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ISR":{"name":"Israel","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ILS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"ILS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Israel, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Israel leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Israel within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ITA":{"name":"Italy","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":62.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003026},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Italy, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Italy leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003026,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Italy within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"JAM":{"name":"Jamaica","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":66.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9.3e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"JMD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"JMD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Jamaica, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9.3e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Jamaica leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Jamaica within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"JOR":{"name":"Jordan","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000661,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000416},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"JOD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000661,"currency_dependency_group":"JOD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Jordan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Jordan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000416,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Jordan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"JPN":{"name":"Japan","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"JPY","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"JPY","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Japan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Japan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Japan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KAZ":{"name":"Kazakhstan","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001084,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KZT","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001084,"currency_dependency_group":"KZT","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Kazakhstan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Kazakhstan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Kazakhstan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KEN":{"name":"Kenya","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":67.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.008089},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KES","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"KES","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Kenya, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Kenya leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.008089,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Kenya within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KGZ":{"name":"Kyrgyzstan","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KGS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"KGS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Kyrgyzstan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Kyrgyzstan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Kyrgyzstan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KHM":{"name":"Cambodia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":65.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KHR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"KHR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Cambodia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Cambodia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Cambodia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KIR":{"name":"Kiribati","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":69.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003026},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AUD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"AUD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Kiribati, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Kiribati leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003026,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Kiribati within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KNA":{"name":"St Kitts and Nevis","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XCD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XCD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of St Kitts and Nevis, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in St Kitts and Nevis leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in St Kitts and Nevis within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KOR":{"name":"South Korea","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":55.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KRW","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"KRW","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of South Korea, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in South Korea leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in South Korea within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"KWT":{"name":"Kuwait","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":68.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KWD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"KWD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Kuwait, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Kuwait leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Kuwait within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LAO":{"name":"Laos","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":70.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"LAK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"LAK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Laos, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Laos leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Laos within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LBN":{"name":"Lebanon","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":72.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004447,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.02947},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"LBP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004447,"currency_dependency_group":"LBP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Lebanon, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Lebanon leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.02947,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Lebanon within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LBR":{"name":"Liberia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":73.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000662,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000698},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"LRD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000662,"currency_dependency_group":"LRD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Liberia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Liberia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000698,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Liberia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LBY":{"name":"Libya","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":67.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004154,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001793,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.007171},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"LYD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004154,"currency_dependency_group":"LYD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Libya, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001793,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Libya leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.007171,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Libya within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LCA":{"name":"St Lucia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":67.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XCD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XCD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of St Lucia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in St Lucia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in St Lucia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LIE":{"name":"Liechtenstein","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":65.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000585},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"CHF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"CHF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Liechtenstein, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Liechtenstein leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000585,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Liechtenstein within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LKA":{"name":"Sri Lanka","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":61.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000407},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"LKR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"LKR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Sri Lanka, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Sri Lanka leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000407,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Sri Lanka within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LSO":{"name":"Lesotho","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":72.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"LSL","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"LSL","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Lesotho, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Lesotho leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Lesotho within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LTU":{"name":"Lithuania","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Lithuania, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Lithuania leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Lithuania within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LUX":{"name":"Luxembourg","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":65.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Luxembourg, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Luxembourg leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Luxembourg within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"LVA":{"name":"Latvia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Latvia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Latvia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Latvia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MAC":{"name":"Macao","tier":"L","band":"green","conf":53.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MOP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"MOP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Macao, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Macao leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Macao within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MAR":{"name":"Morocco","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":72.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MAD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"MAD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Morocco, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Morocco leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Morocco within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MCO":{"name":"Monaco","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":58.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Monaco, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Monaco leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Monaco within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MDA":{"name":"Moldova","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":68.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MDL","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"MDL","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Moldova, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Moldova leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Moldova within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MDG":{"name":"Madagascar","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":69.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MGA","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"MGA","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Madagascar, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Madagascar leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Madagascar within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MDV":{"name":"Maldives","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":69.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002444,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003586},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MVR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002444,"currency_dependency_group":"MVR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Maldives, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Maldives leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003586,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Maldives within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MEX":{"name":"Mexico","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":60.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.006369},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MXN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"MXN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Mexico, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Mexico leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.006369,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Mexico within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MHL":{"name":"Marshall Islands","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":65.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"USD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"USD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Marshall Islands, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Marshall Islands leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Marshall Islands within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MKD":{"name":"North Macedonia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":64.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9.3e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MKD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"MKD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of North Macedonia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9.3e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in North Macedonia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in North Macedonia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MLI":{"name":"Mali","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":76.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001793,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.024016},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Mali, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001793,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Mali leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.024016,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Mali within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MLT":{"name":"Malta","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":70.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Malta, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Malta leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Malta within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MMR":{"name":"Myanmar","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":66.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004441,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002039,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.029075},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MMK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004441,"currency_dependency_group":"MMK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Myanmar, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002039,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Myanmar leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.029075,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Myanmar within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MNE":{"name":"Montenegro","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":64.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Montenegro, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Montenegro leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Montenegro within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MNG":{"name":"Mongolia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":76.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000669,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000864},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MNT","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000669,"currency_dependency_group":"MNT","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Mongolia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Mongolia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000864,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Mongolia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MOZ":{"name":"Mozambique","tier":"C","band":"orange","conf":73.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00377,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001445,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.019398},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MZN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00377,"currency_dependency_group":"MZN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Mozambique, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001445,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Mozambique leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.019398,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Mozambique within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MRT":{"name":"Mauritania","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MRU","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"MRU","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Mauritania, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Mauritania leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Mauritania within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MUS":{"name":"Mauritius","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"MUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Mauritius, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Mauritius leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Mauritius within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MWI":{"name":"Malawi","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":65.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MWK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"MWK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Malawi, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Malawi leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Malawi within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"MYS":{"name":"Malaysia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":68.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"MYR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"MYR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Malaysia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Malaysia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Malaysia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NAM":{"name":"Namibia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"NAD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"NAD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Namibia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Namibia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Namibia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NCL":{"name":"New Caledonia","tier":"L","band":"yellow","conf":58.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002444,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003586},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XPF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002444,"currency_dependency_group":"XPF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of New Caledonia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in New Caledonia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003586,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in New Caledonia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NER":{"name":"Niger","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":75.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001445,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.019398},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Niger, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001445,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Niger leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.019398,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Niger within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NGA":{"name":"Nigeria","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.006369},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"NGN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"NGN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Nigeria, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Nigeria leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.006369,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Nigeria within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NIC":{"name":"Nicaragua","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":75.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"NIO","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"NIO","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Nicaragua, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Nicaragua leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Nicaragua within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NLD":{"name":"Netherlands","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":55.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Netherlands, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Netherlands leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Netherlands within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NOR":{"name":"Norway","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":56.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"NOK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"NOK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Norway, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Norway leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Norway within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NPL":{"name":"Nepal","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":63.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000661,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001394},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"NPR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000661,"currency_dependency_group":"NPR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Nepal, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Nepal leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001394,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Nepal within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NRU":{"name":"Nauru","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":65.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AUD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"AUD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Nauru, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Nauru leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Nauru within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"NZL":{"name":"New Zealand","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":56.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"NZD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"NZD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of New Zealand, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in New Zealand leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in New Zealand within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"OMN":{"name":"Oman","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":72.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000664,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000725},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"OMR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000664,"currency_dependency_group":"OMR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Oman, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Oman leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000725,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Oman within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PAK":{"name":"Pakistan","tier":"A","band":"red","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"PKR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"PKR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Pakistan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Pakistan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Pakistan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PAN":{"name":"Panama","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":70.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"PAB","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"PAB","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Panama, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Panama leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Panama within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PER":{"name":"Peru","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":69.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"PEN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"PEN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Peru, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Peru leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Peru within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PHL":{"name":"Philippines","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":67.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"PHP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"PHP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Philippines, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Philippines leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Philippines within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PLW":{"name":"Palau","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":69.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"USD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"USD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Palau, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Palau leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Palau within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PNG":{"name":"Papua New Guinea","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":74.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002234,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002521},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"PGK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002234,"currency_dependency_group":"PGK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Papua New Guinea, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Papua New Guinea leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002521,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Papua New Guinea within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"POL":{"name":"Poland","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":55.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"PLN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"PLN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Poland, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Poland leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Poland within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PRI":{"name":"Puerto Rico","tier":"L","band":"yellow","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"USD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"USD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Puerto Rico, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Puerto Rico leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Puerto Rico within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PRK":{"name":"North Korea","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":52.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004027,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001571,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.006785},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"KPW","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004027,"currency_dependency_group":"KPW","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of North Korea, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001571,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in North Korea leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.006785,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in North Korea within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PRT":{"name":"Portugal","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":63.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9.3e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Portugal, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9.3e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Portugal leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Portugal within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PRY":{"name":"Paraguay","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":76.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000661,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000416},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"PYG","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000661,"currency_dependency_group":"PYG","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Paraguay, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Paraguay leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000416,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Paraguay within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"PSE":{"name":"Palestine","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":62.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.0088},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":null,"shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"CURRENCY_UNKNOWN","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":null,"eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":null,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Palestine, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Palestine leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.0088,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Palestine within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"QAT":{"name":"Qatar","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":72.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003026},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"QAR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"QAR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Qatar, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Qatar leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003026,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Qatar within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ROU":{"name":"Romania","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000916,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"RON","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000916,"currency_dependency_group":"RON","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Romania, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Romania leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Romania within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"RUS":{"name":"Russia","tier":"A","band":"red","conf":60.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003026},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"RUB","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"RUB","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Russia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Russia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003026,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Russia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"RWA":{"name":"Rwanda","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":71.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002444,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003586},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"RWF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002444,"currency_dependency_group":"RWF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Rwanda, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Rwanda leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003586,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Rwanda within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SAU":{"name":"Saudi Arabia","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":55.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001085,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SAR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001085,"currency_dependency_group":"SAR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Saudi Arabia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Saudi Arabia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Saudi Arabia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SDN":{"name":"Sudan","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":59.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.005035,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.00264,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.030244},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SDG","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.005035,"currency_dependency_group":"SDG","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Sudan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00264,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Sudan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.030244,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Sudan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SEN":{"name":"Senegal","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":73.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003026},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Senegal, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Senegal leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003026,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Senegal within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SGP":{"name":"Singapore","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SGD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"SGD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Singapore, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Singapore leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Singapore within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SLB":{"name":"Solomon Islands","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":62.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SBD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"SBD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Solomon Islands, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Solomon Islands leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Solomon Islands within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SLE":{"name":"Sierra Leone","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":64.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SLE","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"SLE","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Sierra Leone, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Sierra Leone leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Sierra Leone within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SLV":{"name":"El Salvador","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":72.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SVC","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"SVC","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of El Salvador, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in El Salvador leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in El Salvador within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SMR":{"name":"San Marino","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":73.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of San Marino, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in San Marino leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in San Marino within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SOM":{"name":"Somalia","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":73.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004441,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002039,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.029075},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SOS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004441,"currency_dependency_group":"SOS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Somalia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002039,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Somalia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.029075,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Somalia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SRB":{"name":"Serbia","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":62.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003026},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"RSD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"RSD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Serbia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Serbia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003026,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Serbia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SSD":{"name":"South Sudan","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":70.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004447,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.0088},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SSP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004447,"currency_dependency_group":"SSP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of South Sudan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in South Sudan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.0088,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in South Sudan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"STP":{"name":"São Tomé and Príncipe","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":70.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"STN","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"STN","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of São Tomé and Príncipe, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in São Tomé and Príncipe leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in São Tomé and Príncipe within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SUR":{"name":"Suriname","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":74.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SRD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"SRD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Suriname, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Suriname leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Suriname within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SVK":{"name":"Slovakia","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Slovakia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Slovakia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Slovakia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SVN":{"name":"Slovenia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":67.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000564,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001885},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Slovenia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000564,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Slovenia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001885,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Slovenia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SWE":{"name":"Sweden","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":60.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SEK","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"SEK","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Sweden, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Sweden leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Sweden within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SWZ":{"name":"Eswatini","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":69.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SZL","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"SZL","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Eswatini, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Eswatini leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Eswatini within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SYC":{"name":"Seychelles","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":70.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SCR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"SCR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Seychelles, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Seychelles leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Seychelles within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"SYR":{"name":"Syria","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":62.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004027,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001571,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.022723},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"SYP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004027,"currency_dependency_group":"SYP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Syria, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001571,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Syria leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.022723,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Syria within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TCD":{"name":"Chad","tier":"B","band":"orange","conf":69.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.001077,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.004868},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XAF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XAF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Chad, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001077,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Chad leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004868,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Chad within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TGO":{"name":"Togo","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":75.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.008089},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XOF","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XOF","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Togo, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Togo leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.008089,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Togo within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"THA":{"name":"Thailand","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":64.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"THB","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"THB","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Thailand, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Thailand leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Thailand within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TJK":{"name":"Tajikistan","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":71.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TJS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"TJS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Tajikistan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Tajikistan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Tajikistan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TKM":{"name":"Turkmenistan","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":69.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001918,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TMT","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001918,"currency_dependency_group":"TMT","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Turkmenistan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Turkmenistan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Turkmenistan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TLS":{"name":"Timor-Leste","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":68.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"USD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"USD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Timor-Leste, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Timor-Leste leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Timor-Leste within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TON":{"name":"Tonga","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":66.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TOP","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"TOP","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Tonga, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Tonga leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Tonga within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TTO":{"name":"Trinidad and Tobago","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":61.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000661,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000484},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TTD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000661,"currency_dependency_group":"TTD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Trinidad and Tobago, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Trinidad and Tobago leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000484,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Trinidad and Tobago within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TUN":{"name":"Tunisia","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":76.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TND","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"TND","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Tunisia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Tunisia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Tunisia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TUR":{"name":"Türkiye","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":58.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.003026},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TRY","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"TRY","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Türkiye, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Türkiye leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.003026,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Türkiye within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TUV":{"name":"Tuvalu","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":65.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"AUD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"AUD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Tuvalu, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Tuvalu leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Tuvalu within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TWN":{"name":"Taiwan","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":42.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000661,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000416},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TWD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000661,"currency_dependency_group":"TWD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Taiwan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Taiwan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000416,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Taiwan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"TZA":{"name":"Tanzania","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":76.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002047,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.002415},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"TZS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002047,"currency_dependency_group":"TZS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Tanzania, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Tanzania leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002415,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Tanzania within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"UGA":{"name":"Uganda","tier":"B","band":"yellow","conf":62.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002258,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000732,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.010135},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"UGX","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002258,"currency_dependency_group":"UGX","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Uganda, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000732,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Uganda leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.010135,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Uganda within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"UKR":{"name":"Ukraine","tier":"A","band":"red","conf":58.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004447,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.02947},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"UAH","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004447,"currency_dependency_group":"UAH","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Ukraine, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Ukraine leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.02947,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Ukraine within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"UNK":{"name":"Kosovo","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":65.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":null,"shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"CURRENCY_UNKNOWN","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":null,"eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":null,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Kosovo, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Kosovo leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Kosovo within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"URY":{"name":"Uruguay","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":59.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":1.7e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"UYU","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"UYU","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Uruguay, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":1.7e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Uruguay leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Uruguay within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"USA":{"name":"United States","tier":"A","band":"orange","conf":60.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000603,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001902},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"USD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"USD_SELF","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"USD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of United States, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000603,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in United States leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001902,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in United States within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"UZB":{"name":"Uzbekistan","tier":"B","band":"green","conf":82.3,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001058,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"UZS","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001058,"currency_dependency_group":"UZS","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Uzbekistan, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Uzbekistan leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Uzbekistan within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"VAT":{"name":"Vatican City","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":63.1,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000585},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"not_applicable","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"EUR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"not_applicable","reason":"NO_OWN_CURRENCY","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"EUR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":false,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Vatican City, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Vatican City leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000585,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Vatican City within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"VCT":{"name":"St Vincent and the Grenadines","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":56.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":null,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"no_estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"XCD","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"reason":"Shared target needs one currency-level estimate, not country-score dependent odds.","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"no_estimate","reason":"NO_COMMON_CURRENCY_ESTIMATE","p":null,"currency_dependency_group":"XCD","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of St Vincent and the Grenadines, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in St Vincent and the Grenadines leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in St Vincent and the Grenadines within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"VEN":{"name":"Venezuela","tier":"A","band":"red","conf":52.9,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.004447,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.002272,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.02947},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":null,"shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.004447,"currency_dependency_group":null,"eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Venezuela, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002272,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Venezuela leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.02947,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Venezuela within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"VNM":{"name":"Vietnam","tier":"A","band":"green","conf":55.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.001058,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000979},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"VND","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001058,"currency_dependency_group":"VND","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Vietnam, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Vietnam leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000979,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Vietnam within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"VUT":{"name":"Vanuatu","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":60.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000801,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000978},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"VUV","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000801,"currency_dependency_group":"VUV","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Vanuatu, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Vanuatu leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000978,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Vanuatu within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"WSM":{"name":"Samoa","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":62.6,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.00086,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000131,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.001127},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"WST","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00086,"currency_dependency_group":"WST","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Samoa, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000131,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Samoa leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.001127,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Samoa within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"YEM":{"name":"Yemen","tier":"B","band":"red","conf":64.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.005035,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.00264,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.009031},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"YER","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.005035,"currency_dependency_group":"YER","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Yemen, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.00264,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Yemen leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.009031,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Yemen within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ZAF":{"name":"South Africa","tier":"A","band":"yellow","conf":57.4,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000658,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":9e-05,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000404},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ZAR","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000658,"currency_dependency_group":"ZAR","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of South Africa, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":9e-05,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in South Africa leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000404,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in South Africa within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ZMB":{"name":"Zambia","tier":"C","band":"green","conf":77.7,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.000669,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000137,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.000864},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ZMW","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000669,"currency_dependency_group":"ZMW","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Zambia, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000137,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Zambia leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000864,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Zambia within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}},"ZWE":{"name":"Zimbabwe","tier":"C","band":"yellow","conf":68.0,"p":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":0.002444,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":0.000861,"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":0.01201},"estimate_status":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":"estimate","LEADERSHIP_EXIT":"estimate","REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"estimate"},"evidence_dates":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","currency_dependency_group":"ZWG","shared_currency_not_automatic_exclusion":true,"skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276Z","estimate_kind":"carried_forward_G0_baseline","skill_comparison":"UNKNOWN","skill_evidence_not_transferred_from_other_target":true}},"cells":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.002444,"currency_dependency_group":"ZWG","eligibility_source":"D10842 + frozen currency_parsed.json","domain_eligible":true,"question":"Will the official exchange rate for the currency of Zimbabwe, measured in local currency units per US dollar, rise by at least 20% over any 30-calendar-day period ending in {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.000861,"question":"Will the leader who holds effective executive power in Zimbabwe leave office or formally and irrevocably announce their resignation during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"state":"estimate","reason":"G0_HISTORICAL_BASELINE","p":0.01201,"question":"Will state forces or pro-government militias kill at least 10 civilians in linked acts of repression in Zimbabwe within seven days, during {target_window_label}?","window":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","issue_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7"}}}},"highlights":{},"verdicts":[{"max":0.01,"word":"remote"},{"max":0.05,"word":"unlikely"},{"max":0.2,"word":"possible"},{"max":0.5,"word":"real chance"},{"max":0.8,"word":"likely"},{"max":1.01,"word":"expected"}],"history":[],"note":"Experimental historical baselines. One event class per view. No prospective validation.","corrections_sha256":"42489bf6f8fb354ebc246f9760fe28966812d7a940ec542d37d82ab4a81e0707","feature_asof":"2026-07-10T19:58:08.055276+00:00","source_issue_date":"2026-10-26","correction_created_at":"2026-10-27T15:55:52.694751+00:00","not_an_ex_ante_emission":false,"original_window_already_started":true,"skill_note":"Matched walk-forward skill UNKNOWN for this raw estimator. G0 is a model baseline, not a proven pure empirical frequency. D9631 evidence belongs to a different estimator/window.","class_policy_sha256":"7a63a03905f5f50c222b02442b2fb2a12e71f05ad0e492fecdda558738128a7d","contract_version":"smoke.d10794.d10842.v1","contract_amendment":{"mandate":"D10842","created_at":"2026-10-27T17:50:57Z","reason":"Public G0-only cells; full precision; explicit applicability; monetary-union amendment; dated Lex note.","sealed_card_unchanged":true,"clark_rules_sha256":"42489bf6f8fb354ebc246f9760fe28966812d7a940ec542d37d82ab4a81e0707"},"assessment":{"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"card_id":"RC-REPRESSIONE_LETALE-v1","card_sha256":"8bf2e6ecaab4a98f88adae783f06a773c35e42b096875991f965f2010ced0088","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","calendar":"UTC calendar days","status":"conditional","deadline":"2026-12-18T10:00:00Z","days":21,"rule":"window_end + final_source_deadline_days","extension_days":14,"extension_trigger":"SHUTDOWN_INTERNET hit in same country; trigger UNKNOWN","extended_deadline":"2027-01-01T10:00:00Z"},"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"card_id":"RC-CURRENCY_CRASH-v1","card_sha256":"21217883bcc2ef0e7114816ecbe1df25f75bf19fcb1442b83d6eb63c3c9bcc5b","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","calendar":null,"status":"UNKNOWN","deadline":null,"reason":"SOURCE_CALENDAR_AND_PUBLICATION_CUTOFF_UNBOUND","rule":"5 working days; feed holiday calendar required"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"card_id":"RC-LEADERSHIP_EXIT-v1","card_sha256":"96b9e51df9d86e1730e12bbff931394ef3b314ad3ab5fe8d87cb784aa2c2db02","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","calendar":"UTC calendar days","status":"known","deadline":"2026-12-02T10:00:00Z","days":5,"rule":"window_end + final_source_deadline_days"}},"raw_run_provenance":{"issue_date":"2026-10-26","window_start":"2026-10-26T09:59:02Z","window_end":"2026-11-25T23:59:59Z","ledger_sha256":"425d6e4aea05fae733c9cdcd2e7036a8cd6b5aa25539e5b058b507771a802a9e","public_prospective_version":false},"version":{"id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7","publication_status":"pending","publication_accepted_at":null,"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":{"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":2592000,"CURRENCY_CRASH":2592000,"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":2592000},"interval":"[S,E)","start_parameter_path":"/root/.openclaw/workspace/mandati_in_coda/D10889_S_EMISSIONE_D10794.txt","start_parameter_sha256":"1474cd2f25cc8a4eddb26038bfa7221447033336b952bf883f0c3db8e96d6344","placeholder":false,"known_binding_gap":"Exact model-to-target binding UNKNOWN; no rescaling of probabilities","assessment_status":"UNKNOWN_PENDING_VERIFIED_RECEIPTS"},"contract_amendments":[{"id":"D10842","version":1,"scope":"CURRENCY_CRASH eligibility only","lex_text_sha16":"05c33537ebf0c60a","card_modified":false},{"amendment_id":"D10901-REPRESSIONE_LETALE","version":"2.0","class":"REPRESSIONE_LETALE","base_card_id":"RC-REPRESSIONE_LETALE-v1","base_card_sha256":"8bf2e6ecaab4a98f88adae783f06a773c35e42b096875991f965f2010ced0088","scope":"D10794 new issue only, repression/currency/leadership; escalation remains V5 25 Oct. No retrospective application.","applies_to_version":"D10794 exact issue identity/hash to be bound before sealing; no live integration certified.","status":"ACTIVE_PENDING_INTEGRATION","window_rule_id":"D10901","window_fields":["version.window_start","version.window_end"],"rule":"Count only qualifying killings whose entire event-date interval lies within [S,E): date_start >= S and date_end < E. No victims before S or at or after E contribute to the threshold of at least 10 civilians killed in linked episodes within at most seven days. Preserve the minimum of counts from at least two independent sources, the unilateral state or para-state violence requirement, exclusions, source hierarchy and void conditions of the base card. The date filter applies to the card's reporting sources; it does not replace them with UCDP, which remains an annual audit source, never the resolver. Exclude date-ambiguous events as coverage gaps; decisive uncertainty yields Unresolved, not an automatic No.","model_target_compatibility":"The displayed number estimates the original card question. Calibration for the stricter scoring rule is not established; empirical binding review pending Clark. No claim of calibrated subevent probability is authorized.","authorized_by":["D10869","D10876","D10901"],"common_binding":{"S":"Explicit future UTC start chosen by regia and fixed in issue before sealing; immutable after hash","E":"S + 2592000 seconds; S <= t < E","version_identity":"Bind exact issue, probabilities, target/card, amendments and protocol hashes before sealing; verified room hash receipt strictly before S for prospective status","missing_date_precision":"No arbitrary midnight conversion at intraday boundaries","historical_scope":"No retrospective application to sealed records or the original 26 October run","comparison_limit":"Monotonicity concerns Hit inclusion at fixed data, eligibility and window, not calibration or an aggregate score with changing denominators","P":"Accepted publication timestamp separately evidenced; never shifts S/E"},"assessment_rule":"E + 21 calendar days; +14 once only on the documented same-country SHUTDOWN_INTERNET Hit trigger of the card; otherwise show conditional extension","supersedes_for_this_issue_only":"D10869-REPRESSIONE_LETALE","known_binding_gap":"Exact model-to-target binding UNKNOWN; H=2592000 is regia D10901 decision on Clark nominal 30-day evidence; no rescaling of probabilities"},{"amendment_id":"D10901-CURRENCY_CRASH","version":"2.0","class":"CURRENCY_CRASH","base_card_id":"RC-CURRENCY_CRASH-v1","base_card_sha256":"21217883bcc2ef0e7114816ecbe1df25f75bf19fcb1442b83d6eb63c3c9bcc5b","scope":"D10794 new issue only, repression/currency/leadership; escalation remains V5 25 Oct. No retrospective application.","applies_to_version":"D10794 exact issue identity/hash to be bound before sealing; no live integration certified.","status":"ACTIVE_PENDING_INTEGRATION","window_rule_id":"D10901","window_fields":["version.window_start","version.window_end"],"rule":"Let XR(t) be the official/reference rate in local currency units per USD, normalized for redenominations. C(t) is XR(t) / XR(t minus 30 calendar days) - 1 >= 0.20. Use the fixing on the reference date t minus 30 days; if that date has no fixing, use the last fixing available before that date. At S, use the last fixing published strictly before S, with its own observation date t0 and corresponding 30-calendar-day comparison. If C(t0) is true, mark the cell VOID, disclose the reason and exclude it from scoring; it can never become Hit or No for this version, even after a reset. If C(t0) is false, any qualifying 30-calendar-day window ending within [S,E) is sufficient for Hit. No new-crossing or reset requirement applies. Pre-S reference observations are allowed. An unavailable pre-S state or decisive missing reference data yields Unresolved under the contract, never an assumed false state. Preserve the card's eligibility, official-rate conditions and other void conditions, subject only to separately approved version-specific eligibility amendments. Follow the card's source order: ECB EUR crosses converted to USD; then the existing onboard FirstRate supplement; then an official central-bank rate documented by two independent sources, with manual_fx=true and reduced confidence. No purchase or new paid source is authorized. Bind the calendar, timezone and publication cutoff to the actual source used for each currency. Use TARGET for the ECB source only. Assessment is due after five publication business days following E according to that bound source calendar; until the binding is fixed, display Assessment date not yet available. Grace permits measurement, never an extension of the outcome window.","model_target_compatibility":"The displayed number estimates the original card question. Calibration for the stricter scoring rule is not established; empirical binding review pending Clark. No claim of calibrated subevent probability is authorized.","authorized_by":["D10869","D10876","D10901"],"common_binding":{"S":"Explicit future UTC start chosen by regia and fixed in issue before sealing; immutable after hash","E":"S + 2592000 seconds; S <= t < E","version_identity":"Bind exact issue, probabilities, target/card, amendments and protocol hashes before sealing; verified room hash receipt strictly before S for prospective status","missing_date_precision":"No arbitrary midnight conversion at intraday boundaries","historical_scope":"No retrospective application to sealed records or the original 26 October run","comparison_limit":"Monotonicity concerns Hit inclusion at fixed data, eligibility and window, not calibration or an aggregate score with changing denominators","P":"Accepted publication timestamp separately evidenced; never shifts S/E"},"assessment_rule":"Five publication business days after E on the actual source calendar; unknown binding gives Assessment date not yet available","supersedes_for_this_issue_only":"D10869-CURRENCY_CRASH","known_binding_gap":"Exact model-to-target binding UNKNOWN; H=2592000 is regia D10901 decision on Clark nominal 30-day evidence; no rescaling of probabilities"}],"resolve_by":null,"contract_sources":{"contract_amendments_D10901.json":"90b0e576dab0704d8788d458cb9172d814ba283f7b1429b3707d2bb5112abeae","TESTI_EN_D10901.txt":"21ea56f0c81f1c0b7f1a96adccce0e8efd3d34d15333389b405cad09f899de79","TESTI_LEADER_RD10865_EMENDATI_D10901.txt":"2433338319be892375d04959e1d304ec4587915f379e149f6ed04833196feab1","TESTI_CONTEGGIO_D10869_EMENDATI_D10901.txt":"2b3fdc9160bf8305806ba54e4361fe02bbbeb8b57dc802dc98b1dc34802ef7fd"},"contract_amendment_hashes":{"D10901-REPRESSIONE_LETALE":"246df7fd1d65ddc3d72ed8b27c395e96fc8960beffa2da3848c8b293bd35b9f2","D10901-CURRENCY_CRASH":"f8ae726b1e5c67ade3169dba180cad8fe53054947e873f97eb933b6e44834fc6"},"class_windows":{"CURRENCY_CRASH":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"LEADERSHIP_EXIT":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"},"REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"window_start":"2026-10-28T10:00:00Z","window_end":"2026-11-27T10:00:00Z","horizon_seconds":2592000,"interval":"[S,E)"}},"publication_binding":{"frozen_issue_must_remain_byte_identical":true,"receipt_path":"/data/class_issue_receipt.json","receipt_binds":"SHA256 of exact frozen issue bytes","S_rule":"Explicit regia UTC parameter fixed before seal; P never shifts S/E"},"contract_amendment_bindings":{"D10901-REPRESSIONE_LETALE":{"version_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7","amendment_sha256":"246df7fd1d65ddc3d72ed8b27c395e96fc8960beffa2da3848c8b293bd35b9f2"},"D10901-CURRENCY_CRASH":{"version_id":"D10794-D10901-e326608b41b05acee9e7","amendment_sha256":"f8ae726b1e5c67ade3169dba180cad8fe53054947e873f97eb933b6e44834fc6"}}}