IRN, 1973
Published archive distance 0.1117. This similarity is not a forecast.
ECU
Ecuador
Ecuador has a Watch pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
62 / 100
#47 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Ecuador in November or December 2026: 21% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ecuador in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ecuador, or with Ecuador as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 21% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population18.3M18,289,896 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalQuitoQuito
Area276.8k km²276841
GDP$130.3B (2025)130.3 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyUSDUSD , United States dollar (dollarized economy)
LanguagesSpanishSpanish
Armed forces42k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 79.5 (1970s); lowest 57.9 (1950s).
Details
Recorded events 73 · Country record
- Jul 2025conflict escalation
- 2025election
- Dec 2024conflict escalation
- Nov 2024conflict escalation
- Oct 2024conflict escalation
- 22 May 2024state of emergency
- 1 May 2024external support
- 9 Jan 2024state of emergency
- Jul 2023conflict escalation
- Jan 2023conflict escalation
- 2023election
- May 2022conflict escalation
Show all 73
- Sep 2021conflict escalation
- 2021election
- 1 Sep 2020external support
- 1 Mar 2019external support
- 2017election
- 14 Aug 2015street pressure
- 2013election
- 1 Jan 2011capital controls
- 2009election
- 1 May 2008street pressure
- 2008election
- 2007election
- 2006election
- 13 Apr 2005street pressure
- 11 Nov 2003street pressure
- 18 Aug 2003street pressure
- 9 Jun 2003street pressure
- 7 Apr 2003street pressure
- 1 Mar 2003external support
- 11 Dec 2002street pressure
- 8 Jul 2002street pressure
- 1 May 2002street pressure
- 2002election
- 21 Jun 2000street pressure
- 15 May 2000street pressure
- 1 Apr 2000external support
- 21 Jan 2000leadership break
- 5 Jul 1999street pressure
- 6 Mar 1999street pressure
- 4 Feb 1999street pressure
- 1998election
- 1997election
- 1996election
- 1 May 1994external support
- 3 Feb 1994street pressure
- 4 Oct 1993street pressure
- 1992election
- 1988election
- 1 Mar 1987external support
- 1 May 1984external support
- 1984election
- 1 Mar 1983external support
- 1 Jan 1982capital controls
- 1979election
- 1978election
- 11 Jan 1976leadership break
- 1976sovereign stress
- 1 Jan 1974capital controls
- 15 Feb 1972leadership break
- 1972sovereign stress
- 1 Jan 1971capital controls
- 1968election
- 29 Mar 1966leadership break
- 11 Jul 1963leadership break
- 7 Nov 1961leadership break
- 1960election
- 1956election
- 1952election
- 1948election
- 3 Sep 1947leadership break
- 23 Aug 1947leadership break
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 71.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 70.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 56.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 57.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 56.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 65.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 80.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 81.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 85.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 73.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 79.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 85.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 62.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 68.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 66.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 70.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 60.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Iran, Islamic Republic of, 1973
Details
SWZ, 1981
Published archive distance 0.1164. This similarity is not a forecast.
URY, 1955
Published archive distance 0.1297. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics90%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events76%Confirmed: 2 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 3 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 66.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Ecuador in this snapshot
Ecuador (ECU) records Watch pressure at 62.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 66.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Ecuador has pressure score 62/100 in Watch. 46 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 10 share this score. Its competition rank is 47. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Bolivia, Plurinational State of (BOL), 62/100, tied; Equatorial Guinea (GNQ), 62/100, tied.
Ecuador's highest decade mean is recorded in 1970-1979 (10 readings, mean 79.5). The lowest is 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 57.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 69.5 | 66.8 | 71 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 57.9 | 56.7 | 66.5 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 73.9 | 56.9 | 89.4 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 79.5 | 65.3 | 95 | 6 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 75.6 | 68.3 | 85.7 | 3 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 70.7 | 67.2 | 79.2 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 71.5 | 62.2 | 85.1 | 2 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 70.2 | 66.7 | 82.3 | 1 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 64.2 | 60.5 | 72.2 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Ecuador's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1972; the minimum is 56.7 in 1955-1959.
Every published year for Ecuador, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Ecuador is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 60 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1961-1968, 1970-2004, 2009-2019, 2023. The remaining 20 are below 65.
Ecuador is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 16 of 80 readings: 1963-1966, 1972-1973, 1976-1980, 1983, 1987, 2000, 2002, 2016. The remaining 64 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Ecuador is 2023 to 2024: Strain (72.2) to Watch (60.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Ecuador records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.