supply
Coffee: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 28.4 elevated · upward pressure
Brazil · Ethiopia
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · protest activity
ETH
Ethiopia
Ethiopia has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
68 / 100
#33 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Ethiopia in November or December 2026: 21% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ethiopia in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ethiopia, or with Ethiopia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 21% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population135.5M135,472,051 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalAddis AbabaAddis Ababa
Area1.1M km²1104300
GDP$126.4B (2025)126.4 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyETBETB , Ethiopian birr (Br)
LanguagesAmharicAmharic
Armed forces138k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 93 (2020-2025); lowest 70.2 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 133 · Country record
- 29 Jan 2026conflict escalation
- Sep 2025conflict escalation
- Mar 2025conflict escalation
- 1 Jul 2024external support
- Feb 2024conflict escalation
- 4 Aug 2023state of emergency
- Aug 2023conflict escalation
- Jul 2023conflict escalation
- May 2023conflict escalation
- Aug 2022conflict escalation
- 2 Nov 2021state of emergency
- Jun 2021conflict escalation
Show all 133
- Jan 2021conflict escalation
- Nov 2020conflict escalation
- Sep 2020conflict escalation
- Jun 2020conflict escalation
- May 2020conflict escalation
- Mar 2020conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2019external support
- Oct 2019conflict escalation
- Oct 2018conflict escalation
- Sep 2018conflict escalation
- Aug 2018conflict escalation
- Jul 2018conflict escalation
- 11 Jun 2018street pressure
- Sep 2017conflict escalation
- Feb 2017conflict escalation
- Aug 2016conflict escalation
- Apr 2016conflict escalation
- Dec 2015conflict escalation
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- Mar 2014conflict escalation
- Jan 2013conflict escalation
- Mar 2012conflict escalation
- Feb 2012conflict escalation
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- Sep 2010conflict escalation
- 2010currency stress
- Nov 2009conflict escalation
- 1 Aug 2009external support
- Feb 2009conflict escalation
- 2009currency stress
- May 2008conflict escalation
- Jan 2008conflict escalation
- Dec 2007conflict escalation
- Apr 2007conflict escalation
- Oct 2006conflict escalation
- May 2006conflict escalation
- Nov 2005conflict escalation
- Mar 2005conflict escalation
- Feb 2005conflict escalation
- Jan 2005conflict escalation
- Jun 2004conflict escalation
- Dec 2003conflict escalation
- Nov 2003conflict escalation
- Jul 2003conflict escalation
- Jan 2003conflict escalation
- Nov 2002conflict escalation
- 19 May 2002street pressure
- Apr 2002conflict escalation
- Mar 2002conflict escalation
- Nov 2001conflict escalation
- Oct 2001conflict escalation
- Jun 2001conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2001external support
- Jan 2001conflict escalation
- Nov 2000conflict escalation
- Sep 2000conflict escalation
- 17 May 2000new sanctions
- May 2000conflict escalation
- Jan 2000conflict escalation
- Jun 1999conflict escalation
- May 1999conflict escalation
- Jan 1999conflict escalation
- Jul 1998conflict escalation
- May 1998conflict escalation
- Jan 1998conflict escalation
- 1 Oct 1996external support
- 3 Sep 1996street pressure
- Jan 1996conflict escalation
- 4 Dec 1994street pressure
- 28 Nov 1994street pressure
- Feb 1994conflict escalation
- 1994election
- 1 Jan 1993capital controls
- 1993currency stress
- 1 Oct 1992external support
- Jun 1992conflict escalation
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- Oct 1991conflict escalation
- 21 May 1991leadership break
- Mar 1991conflict escalation
- Dec 1990conflict escalation
- Mar 1990conflict escalation
- Jan 1990conflict escalation
- Oct 1989conflict escalation
- Sep 1989conflict escalation
- Aug 1989conflict escalation
- Feb 1989conflict escalation
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1980displacement surge
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1979displacement surge
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 3 Feb 1977leadership break
- 1 Jan 1977displacement surge
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 23 Nov 1974leadership break
- 12 Sep 1974leadership break
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970sovereign stress
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 1960conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 73.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 72.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 68.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 67.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 93.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 93.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 92.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 91.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 91.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 90.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 93.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 80.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 85.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 86.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 85.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 80.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 92.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 93.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
1 point · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Bolivia, Plurinational State of, 1976
Details
BOL, 1976
Published archive distance 0.1906. This similarity is not a forecast.
GHA, 1987
Published archive distance 0.2137. This similarity is not a forecast.
DZA, 1963
Published archive distance 0.2434. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics79%Confirmed: 4 of 7; Sourced: 2 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 63.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Ethiopia in this snapshot
Ethiopia (ETH) records Strain pressure at 68.0 of 100 and touches 1 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 63.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 1 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Ethiopia has pressure score 68/100 in Strain. 32 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 8 share this score. Its competition rank is 33. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Eritrea (ERI), 68/100, tied; Germany (DEU), 68/100, tied.
Ethiopia's highest decade mean is recorded in 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 93). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 70.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 90.3 | 76.1 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 76.8 | 71.5 | 94.9 | 2 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 70.2 | 67.9 | 73.5 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 87.4 | 75.3 | 95 | 7 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 92.9 | 84.4 | 95 | 10 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 91.9 | 75.9 | 95 | 9 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 87.2 | 80.9 | 95 | 10 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 83.3 | 78 | 92.7 | 9 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 93 | 84.7 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Ethiopia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1975-1978, 1985, 1987-1992, 1995, 1998-2000, 2003, 2020-2023; the minimum is 67.9 in 1969.
Every published year for Ethiopia, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Every published year for Ethiopia, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 65: 80 of 80 readings.
Ethiopia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 56 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950, 1959, 1970, 1974-1996, 1998-2018, 2020-2025. The remaining 24 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Ethiopia is 2019 to 2020: Strain (78) to Crisis (95). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Ethiopia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.