supply
Nickel: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 39.8 elevated · upward pressure
Indonesia · Russia
armed conflict activity · information disruption · protest activity
RUS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation has a Crisis pressure reading, near the top of the ranking.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
82 / 100
#10 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Russia in November or December 2026: 16% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Russia in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Russia, or with Russia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 16% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population143.5M143,513,328 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalMoscowMoscow · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area17.1M km²17098242 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$2.6T (2025)2.56131e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyRUBRUB · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesRussianRussian · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces1.5M (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 92.5 (1946-1949); lowest 52.8 (1980s).
Details
Recorded events 70 · Country record
- 2024election
- 22 Feb 2022new sanctions
- 1 Jan 2021capital controls
- 29 Sep 2019street pressure
- 10 Aug 2019street pressure
- 20 Jul 2019street pressure
- 2018election
- 14 May 2017street pressure
- 26 Feb 2017street pressure
- 1 Mar 2015street pressure
- 2015currency stress
- 21 Sep 2014street pressure
Show all 70
- 31 Jul 2014new sanctions
- 17 Mar 2014new sanctions
- 15 Mar 2014street pressure
- 2014currency stress
- 18 Jul 2013street pressure
- 12 Jun 2013street pressure
- 13 Jan 2013street pressure
- 14 Dec 2012new sanctions
- 15 Sep 2012street pressure
- 12 Jun 2012street pressure
- 13 May 2012street pressure
- 5 Mar 2012street pressure
- 4 Feb 2012street pressure
- 2012election
- 10 Dec 2011street pressure
- 2009currency stress
- 2008election
- 18 Oct 2005street pressure
- 1 May 2005street pressure
- 12 Feb 2005street pressure
- 15 Jan 2005street pressure
- 7 Nov 2004street pressure
- 2004election
- 31 Mar 2001street pressure
- 1 Jan 2001capital controls
- 2000election
- 8 Nov 1999street pressure
- 1 Jul 1999external support
- 18 Mar 1999street pressure
- 1 Jan 1999capital controls
- 1999currency stress
- 7 Nov 1998street pressure
- 1 Jan 1998capital controls
- 1998currency stress
- 1 Mar 1996external support
- 1996currency stress
- 1996election
- 12 Apr 1995street pressure
- 1 Apr 1995external support
- 1995currency stress
- 20 Dec 1994street pressure
- 7 Nov 1994street pressure
- 1 May 1994street pressure
- 1994currency stress
- 4 Oct 1993street pressure
- 9 May 1993street pressure
- 28 Mar 1993street pressure
- 23 Feb 1993street pressure
- 1993currency stress
- 22 Jun 1992street pressure
- 1 May 1992street pressure
- 23 Feb 1992street pressure
- 12 Jan 1992street pressure
- 1992currency stress
- 1 Dec 1991external support
- 21 Aug 1991leadership break
- 1991currency stress
- 1991election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 83.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 70.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 70.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 67.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 65.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1975 | 57.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 57.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 56.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 56.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1980 | 55.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1981 | 55.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1982 | 55.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1983 | 55.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 55.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1985 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1986 | 49.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1987 | 49.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1988 | 49.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1989 | 46.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1990 | 40.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1991 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1992 | 76.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 60.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1998 | 73.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 65.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 57.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 60.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 59.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 55.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 56.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 56.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 62.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 61.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82 | Strain | estimated |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
7 points · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Palladium: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 28.6 elevated · upward pressure
South Africa · Russia
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
supply
Wheat: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 11.2 low · upward pressure
Ukraine · Russia
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
supply
Crude oil: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 11.1 low · upward pressure
India · Iran · Nigeria · Mexico · Russia · China · Venezuela
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
supply
Uranium: enrichment capacity
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 4.5 low · upward pressure
Russia
information disruption · protest activity
supply
European gas: supply routing
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 1.7 low · upward pressure
Russia
information disruption · protest activity
supply
Potash and urea: production capacity
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 1.7 low · upward pressure
Russia
information disruption · protest activity
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Namibia, 2007
Details
NAM, 2007
Published archive distance 0.0857. This similarity is not a forecast.
TTO, 1966
Published archive distance 0.0924. This similarity is not a forecast.
LKA, 1969
Published archive distance 0.1124. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events36%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 60The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Russian Federation in this snapshot
Russian Federation (RUS) records Crisis pressure at 82.0 of 100 and touches 7 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 60.0.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 7 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Russian Federation has pressure score 82/100 in Crisis. 9 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 10. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Myanmar (MMR), 82/100, tied; Somalia (SOM), 82/100, tied.
Russian Federation's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 92.5). The lowest is 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 52.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 92.5 | 85 | 95 | 4 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 78.3 | 72.8 | 84.4 | 4 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 67.8 | 63.4 | 71.4 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 58.7 | 56.5 | 62.1 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.5 | 55.9 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 67.9 | 40.3 | 80.8 | 1 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 62.9 | 57.8 | 67.7 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 58 | 55.3 | 66.8 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 60 | 57 | 62 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Russian Federation's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948; the minimum is 40.3 in 1990.
Russian Federation is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 75 of 80 readings: 1946-1985, 1991-2025. The remaining 5 are below 55.
Russian Federation is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 32 of 80 readings: 1946-1966, 1992-1996, 1998, 2000-2002, 2009, 2015. The remaining 48 are below 65.
Russian Federation is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 9 of 80 readings: 1946-1953, 1993. The remaining 71 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Russian Federation is 2015 to 2016: Strain (66.8) to Watch (56). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Russian Federation records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.