equity
Brazil: local market stress
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a local market.
Point score: 79.0 high · pressure on local assets
Brazil
armed conflict activity · protest activity
BRA
Brazil
Brazil has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
68 / 100
#33 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Brazil in November or December 2026: 18% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Brazil in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Brazil, or with Brazil as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 18% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population212.8M212,812,405 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBrasíliaBrasília · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area8.5M km²8515767 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$2.3T (2025)2.27992e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyBRLBRL · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesPortuguesePortuguese · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces762k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 88.4 (1946-1949); lowest 61.1 (2000s).
Details
Recorded events 118 · Country record
- May 2025conflict escalation
- 2022election
- Jan 2021conflict escalation
- Nov 2020conflict escalation
- Jan 2020conflict escalation
- Jan 2019conflict escalation
- Sep 2018conflict escalation
- Jan 2018conflict escalation
- 2018election
- Sep 2017conflict escalation
- 18 May 2017street pressure
- May 2017conflict escalation
Show all 118
- Jan 2017conflict escalation
- 17 Apr 2016street pressure
- Jan 2016conflict escalation
- 13 Dec 2015street pressure
- 16 Aug 2015street pressure
- Jun 2015conflict escalation
- 12 Apr 2015street pressure
- 15 Mar 2015street pressure
- 9 Jan 2015street pressure
- 1 Jan 2015capital controls
- 2015currency stress
- 2014election
- 8 Oct 2013street pressure
- 17 Jun 2013street pressure
- 26 Nov 2012street pressure
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 2011street pressure
- 17 Mar 2010street pressure
- 2010election
- 14 Jun 2007street pressure
- 2006election
- 17 May 2005street pressure
- Mar 2005conflict escalation
- May 2004conflict escalation
- 8 Jul 2003street pressure
- 11 Jun 2003street pressure
- 2003sovereign stress
- 1 Sep 2002external support
- 2002currency stress
- 2002election
- 1 Sep 2001external support
- 18 Feb 2001street pressure
- 2001currency stress
- 31 Oct 2000street pressure
- 1 May 2000street pressure
- 22 Apr 2000street pressure
- Feb 2000conflict escalation
- Dec 1999conflict escalation
- 26 Aug 1999street pressure
- 1999currency stress
- 1 Dec 1998external support
- 24 Nov 1998street pressure
- 20 May 1998street pressure
- 17 Apr 1998street pressure
- 1998election
- 21 Jun 1996street pressure
- 23 Nov 1995street pressure
- 3 May 1995street pressure
- 22 Mar 1995street pressure
- 1995currency stress
- 20 Dec 1994street pressure
- 1994currency stress
- 1994election
- 27 Jan 1993street pressure
- 1993currency stress
- 15 Sep 1992street pressure
- 25 Aug 1992street pressure
- 1992currency stress
- 11 Sep 1991street pressure
- 21 May 1991street pressure
- 1991currency stress
- 1 Jun 1990street pressure
- 1990currency stress
- 1989currency stress
- 1989election
- 1 Sep 1988external support
- 1988currency stress
- 1 Feb 1987external support
- 1987currency stress
- 1986currency stress
- 1 Aug 1985external support
- 1985currency stress
- 1984currency stress
- 1 Feb 1983external support
- 1983currency stress
- 1 Nov 1982external support
- 1982currency stress
- 1981currency stress
- 1980currency stress
- 1979currency stress
- 1978currency stress
- 1977currency stress
- 1976currency stress
- 1971sovereign stress
- 1 Oct 1969external support
- 1969currency stress
- 1968currency stress
- 1 Feb 1965external support
- 1965currency stress
- 2 Apr 1964leadership break
- 1964currency stress
- 1963currency stress
- 1 May 1962external support
- 1962currency stress
- 1961currency stress
- 1960currency stress
- 1960sovereign stress
- 1960election
- 1959currency stress
- 1958currency stress
- 11 Nov 1955leadership break
- 1955currency stress
- 1955election
- 24 Aug 1954leadership break
- 1954currency stress
- 1950election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 91.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 64.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 61.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 91.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 93.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 83.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 84.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 73.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 70.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 81.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1994 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1995 | 63.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1996 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1998 | 63.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1999 | 63.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 56.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2002 | 52.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2003 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 64.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 61.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 60.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 60.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 66.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 64.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 93.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
5 points
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Sugar: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 35.5 elevated · upward pressure
Brazil
armed conflict activity · protest activity
demand
Soybeans: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an import demand link.
Point score: 34.2 elevated · softer demand pressure
Brazil · China
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
supply
Coffee: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 28.4 elevated · upward pressure
Brazil · Ethiopia
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · protest activity
supply
Iron ore: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 15.8 elevated · upward pressure
Brazil
armed conflict activity · protest activity
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: India, 1955
Details
IND, 1955
Published archive distance 0.2249. This similarity is not a forecast.
IDN, 2007
Published archive distance 0.2275. This similarity is not a forecast.
DZA, 1965
Published archive distance 0.2551. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy53%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 7 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 1 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events30%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 57.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Brazil in this snapshot
Brazil (BRA) records Strain pressure at 68.0 of 100 and touches 5 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 57.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 5 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Brazil has pressure score 68/100 in Strain. 32 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 8 share this score. Its competition rank is 33. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Nigeria (NGA), 70/100, higher by 2; Burkina Faso (BFA), 68/100, tied.
Brazil's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 88.4). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 61.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 88.4 | 79 | 93.9 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 64.8 | 61.8 | 78.3 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 79.4 | 68.9 | 93.2 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 79.8 | 74 | 85.9 | 4 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 75.7 | 70.6 | 84.8 | 2 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 67.5 | 62.3 | 81.4 | 2 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 61.1 | 52.4 | 66.7 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 75.6 | 59.9 | 95 | 4 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 81.6 | 62.4 | 95 | 3 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Brazil's mapped-score peak is 95 in 2017-2020; the minimum is 52.4 in 2002.
Brazil is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2001, 2003-2025. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Brazil is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 51 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1960-1992, 2009, 2013, 2015-2024. The remaining 29 are below 65.
Brazil is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 21 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1964-1966, 1971-1974, 1981, 1983, 1990, 1992, 2016-2022. The remaining 59 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Brazil is 2024 to 2025: Strain (74.9) to Watch (62.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Brazil records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.