IDN, 2014
Published archive distance 0.2141. This similarity is not a forecast.
BGD
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has a Watch pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
62 / 100
#47 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Bangladesh in November or December 2026: 3.2% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bangladesh in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bangladesh, or with Bangladesh as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 3.2% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population175.7M175,686,899 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalDhakaDhaka
Area147.6k km²147570
GDP$456.3B (2025)456.3 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyBDTBDT , Bangladeshi taka
LanguagesBengaliBengali
Armed forces227k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (1950s); lowest 57.9 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 69 · Country record
- 12 Feb 2026election
- 5 Aug 2024leadership break
- Aug 2024conflict escalation
- 15 Jul 2024street pressure
- Jul 2024conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2023external support
- Mar 2017conflict escalation
- Jul 2016conflict escalation
- 25 Apr 2014street pressure
- 13 Nov 2013street pressure
- 21 Sep 2013street pressure
- 6 May 2013street pressure
Show all 69
- 5 Feb 2013street pressure
- 22 Apr 2012street pressure
- 1 Apr 2012external support
- 12 Mar 2012street pressure
- 12 Jun 2011street pressure
- 6 Feb 2011street pressure
- 31 Jan 2011street pressure
- 5 May 2008street pressure
- 11 Jan 2007state of emergency
- 23 Nov 2005street pressure
- 22 Aug 2004street pressure
- Aug 2004conflict escalation
- 15 Sep 2003street pressure
- 1 Jun 2003external support
- 2 Sep 2000street pressure
- Aug 2000conflict escalation
- 16 May 2000street pressure
- 20 Apr 2000street pressure
- 14 Nov 1999street pressure
- 25 Jul 1999street pressure
- 3 May 1999street pressure
- 30 Jul 1997street pressure
- Sep 1996conflict escalation
- 29 Feb 1996street pressure
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 11 Mar 1995street pressure
- 27 Nov 1994street pressure
- 29 Jul 1994street pressure
- 18 Jan 1994street pressure
- 10 Nov 1992street pressure
- Apr 1992conflict escalation
- Jun 1991conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 1991external support
- 28 Nov 1990street pressure
- Apr 1990conflict escalation
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986election
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982currency stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981election
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978election
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975currency stress
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974currency stress
- 1973currency stress
- 1973sovereign stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 93.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 86.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 79.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 91.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 93.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 86.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 81.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 93.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 76.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 77.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 79.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 77.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 72.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 77.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 59.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 58.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 57.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 48.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Indonesia, 2014
Details
THA, 2000
Published archive distance 0.2246. This similarity is not a forecast.
SLV, 2008
Published archive distance 0.2416. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 65.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Bangladesh in this snapshot
Bangladesh (BGD) records Watch pressure at 62.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 65.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 77 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Bangladesh has pressure score 62/100 in Watch. 46 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 10 share this score. Its competition rank is 47. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Mexico (MEX), 64/100, higher by 2; Bolivia, Plurinational State of (BOL), 62/100, tied.
Bangladesh's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 57.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 83 | 74.9 | 95 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 89.1 | 74.8 | 95 | 9 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 84.5 | 78.3 | 93.9 | 6 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 79.2 | 69.4 | 93.4 | 4 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 77.4 | 66.8 | 95 | 4 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 76 | 61.1 | 88.7 | 4 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 57.9 | 48.4 | 66.5 | 0 |
Across 76 annual readings (1950-2025), Bangladesh's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1950-1959, 1961, 1964-1965, 1967, 1971-1972, 1975, 2006; the minimum is 48.4 in 2025.
Bangladesh is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 75 of 76 readings: 1950-2024. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Bangladesh is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 70 of 76 readings: 1950-2018, 2024. The remaining 6 are below 65.
Bangladesh is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 41 of 76 readings: 1950-1959, 1961, 1964-1965, 1967, 1971-1979, 1982-1986, 1989-1992, 1995, 2005-2008, 2011, 2013-2014, 2016. The remaining 35 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Bangladesh is 2024 to 2025: Strain (66.5) to Calm (48.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Bangladesh records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.