NER, 2013
Published archive distance 0.2812. This similarity is not a forecast.
GIN
Guinea
Guinea has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
55 / 100
#73 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Guinea in November or December 2026: 2.2% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Guinea in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Guinea, or with Guinea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 2.2% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population15.1M15,099,727 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalConakryConakry
Area245.9k km²245857
GDP$28.3B (2025)28.3 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyGNFGNF , Guinean franc (Fr)
LanguagesFrenchFrench
Armed forces13k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 85.9 (1950s); lowest 77 (1946-1949).
Details
Recorded events 40 · Country record
- 2025election
- 5 Sep 2021leadership break
- 6 Jan 2020street pressure
- 2020election
- 10 Dec 2019street pressure
- 26 Nov 2019street pressure
- 24 Oct 2019street pressure
- 1 Dec 2017external support
- 16 Aug 2016street pressure
- 2015election
- 25 Apr 2013street pressure
- 1 Feb 2012external support
Show all 40
- 2010election
- 24 Sep 2009street pressure
- 1 Dec 2007external support
- 1 Jan 2006capital controls
- 2006currency stress
- 2005currency stress
- 1 Jan 2003capital controls
- 2003election
- 1 May 2001external support
- Feb 2001conflict escalation
- Dec 2000conflict escalation
- 2000currency stress
- 1998election
- 1 Jan 1997external support
- 1993election
- 1989currency stress
- 1987currency stress
- 1986currency stress
- 1984currency stress
- 1983currency stress
- 1982currency stress
- 1982election
- 1 Jan 1975displacement surge
- 1974election
- 1968election
- 1967sovereign stress
- 1965sovereign stress
- 1961election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 86.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 84.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 88.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 73.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 85.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 80.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 69.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 91.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 78.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 77.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 87.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 80.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 81.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 78.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 81.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 91.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 91.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 73.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 56.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Niger, 2013
Details
GAB, 2012
Published archive distance 0.3179. This similarity is not a forecast.
SLB, 2004
Published archive distance 0.3352. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics89%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 2 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events48%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 64.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Guinea in this snapshot
Guinea (GIN) records Watch pressure at 55.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 64.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Guinea has pressure score 55/100 in Watch. 72 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 18 share this score. Its competition rank is 73. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Guatemala (GTM), 55/100, tied; Kenya (KEN), 55/100, tied.
Guinea's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 85.9). The lowest is 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 77). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 77 | 61 | 82.3 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 85.9 | 84.2 | 88.6 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 78.6 | 69.1 | 92.4 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 81.7 | 77.8 | 90.8 | 3 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 81.1 | 75.2 | 90.8 | 5 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 78.6 | 67.1 | 87.8 | 6 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 80.3 | 66.6 | 91.7 | 6 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 79.7 | 75.3 | 91.4 | 3 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 78.2 | 56.3 | 94 | 3 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Guinea's mapped-score peak is 94 in 2022; the minimum is 56.3 in 2025.
Every published year for Guinea, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Guinea is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 78 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-2024. The remaining 2 are below 65.
Guinea is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 43 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1959, 1964-1965, 1967, 1969-1970, 1977, 1979, 1984-1988, 1990-1993, 1995, 1997, 2000-2001, 2004, 2006, 2008-2009, 2012-2013, 2018, 2020, 2022-2023. The remaining 37 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Guinea is 2024 to 2025: Strain (73.9) to Watch (56.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Guinea records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.