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Austria

Austria has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

36 / 100

#127 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Austria in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Austria in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Austria, or with Austria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population9.2M
CapitalVienna
Area83.9k km²
GDP$579.5B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesAustro-Bavarian German
Armed forces23k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
34.25
L3 Politics
26.41
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
25.12
L6 Society
37

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 63 (1946-1949); lowest 17.9 (1990s).

Details

Recorded events 18 · Country record

  • 2022election
  • 2016election
  • 18 Dec 2013street pressure
  • 2010election
  • 2004election
  • 2 Feb 2000street pressure
  • 12 Nov 1999street pressure
  • 1998election
  • 1992election
  • 1986election
  • 1981currency stress
  • 1980election
Show all 18
  • 1974election
  • 1971election
  • 1965election
  • 1963election
  • 1957election
  • 1951election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Austria · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194664.4Watcharchive reading
194763.9Watcharchive reading
194862.7Watcharchive reading
194960.8Watcharchive reading
195060.0Watcharchive reading
195147.8Calmarchive reading
195263.3Watcharchive reading
195347.1Calmarchive reading
195445.1Calmarchive reading
195543.1Calmarchive reading
195642.0Calmarchive reading
195741.1Calmarchive reading
195840.5Calmarchive reading
195941.7Calmarchive reading
196038.5Calmarchive reading
196137.2Calmarchive reading
196236.7Calmarchive reading
196336.2Calmarchive reading
196435.3Calmarchive reading
196536.0Calmarchive reading
196632.8Calmarchive reading
196732.2Calmarchive reading
196831.0Calmarchive reading
196929.1Calmarchive reading
197027.0Calmarchive reading
197125.6Calmarchive reading
197220.9Calmarchive reading
197319.0Calmarchive reading
197417.7Calmarchive reading
197556.1Watcharchive reading
197617.7Calmarchive reading
197717.7Calmarchive reading
197856.1Watcharchive reading
197918.6Calmarchive reading
198019.8Calmarchive reading
198156.1Watcharchive reading
198217.7Calmarchive reading
198317.7Calmarchive reading
198418.6Calmarchive reading
198518.6Calmarchive reading
198617.7Calmarchive reading
198717.7Calmarchive reading
198817.7Calmarchive reading
198917.7Calmarchive reading
199017.7Calmarchive reading
199117.7Calmarchive reading
199217.7Calmarchive reading
199317.7Calmarchive reading
199417.7Calmarchive reading
199519.4Calmarchive reading
199618.2Calmarchive reading
199717.9Calmarchive reading
199817.7Calmarchive reading
199917.4Calmarchive reading
200030.3Calmarchive reading
200117.4Calmarchive reading
200217.4Calmarchive reading
200317.4Calmarchive reading
200417.4Calmarchive reading
200517.4Calmarchive reading
200617.4Calmarchive reading
200717.4Calmarchive reading
200817.4Calmarchive reading
200957.0Watcharchive reading
201017.4Calmarchive reading
201117.7Calmarchive reading
201217.9Calmarchive reading
201316.9Calmarchive reading
201416.9Calmarchive reading
201516.9Calmarchive reading
201625.5Calmarchive reading
201724.0Calmarchive reading
201824.0Calmarchive reading
201917.0Calmarchive reading
202036.3Calmarchive reading
202116.4Calmarchive reading
202223.5Calmarchive reading
202323.7Calmarchive reading
202426.9Calmarchive reading
202520.2Calmarchive reading
Austria · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202636Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Denmark, 1999

Details
Denmark, 1999Canada, 2006Netherlands, 2003

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.2115. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 2006

Published archive distance 0.2722. This similarity is not a forecast.

NLD, 2003

Published archive distance 0.275. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Austria
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 58.6

Austria in this snapshot

Austria (AUT) records Calm pressure at 36.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 58.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Austria has pressure score 36/100 in Calm. 126 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 127. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Zambia (ZMB), 36.2/100, higher by 0.2; Netherlands (NLD), 36/100, tied.

Austria's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 63). The lowest is 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 17.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Austria: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-194946360.864.40
1950-19591047.240.563.30
1960-19691034.529.138.50
1970-19791027.617.756.10
1980-19891021.917.756.10
1990-19991017.917.419.40
2000-20091022.617.4570
2010-20191019.416.925.50
2020-2025624.516.436.30

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Austria's mapped-score peak is 64.4 in 1946; the minimum is 16.4 in 2021.

Austria is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 10 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1952, 1975, 1978, 1981, 2009. The remaining 70 are below 55.

Austria never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Austria never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Austria is 2009 to 2010: Watch (57) to Calm (17.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Austria records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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