equity
Mexico: local market stress
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a local market.
Point score: 65.0 high · pressure on local assets
Mexico
armed conflict activity
MEX
Mexico
Mexico has a Watch pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
64 / 100
#45 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Mexico in November or December 2026: 3.6% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mexico in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mexico, or with Mexico as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 3.6% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population131.9M131,946,900 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalMexico CityMexico City · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area2M km²1964375 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$1.8T (2025)1.83264e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyMXNMXN · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesSpanishSpanish · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces341k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 91.4 (2020-2025); lowest 59.7 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 114 · Country record
- Jun 2025conflict escalation
- Jan 2025conflict escalation
- Sep 2024conflict escalation
- Jan 2024conflict escalation
- 2024election
- 1 Nov 2023external support
- Jan 2023conflict escalation
- Jan 2022conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 2021external support
- Jan 2021conflict escalation
- 8 Mar 2020street pressure
- Jan 2020conflict escalation
Show all 114
- 1 Nov 2019external support
- Jan 2019conflict escalation
- Aug 2018conflict escalation
- Jul 2018conflict escalation
- Jan 2018conflict escalation
- 2018sovereign stress
- 2018election
- 1 Nov 2017external support
- May 2017conflict escalation
- 12 Feb 2017street pressure
- Jan 2017conflict escalation
- Jun 2016conflict escalation
- 1 May 2016external support
- Jan 2016conflict escalation
- 2016sovereign stress
- Nov 2015conflict escalation
- 26 Sep 2015street pressure
- May 2015conflict escalation
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 2014external support
- Sep 2014conflict escalation
- Jan 2014conflict escalation
- Aug 2013conflict escalation
- Jan 2013conflict escalation
- 2013sovereign stress
- 1 Nov 2012external support
- Nov 2012conflict escalation
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- 2012election
- Jul 2011conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2011external support
- Jan 2011conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2010external support
- Jan 2010conflict escalation
- Dec 2009conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 2009external support
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- 2009currency stress
- 30 Aug 2008street pressure
- 31 Jan 2008street pressure
- Jan 2008conflict escalation
- 31 Jan 2007street pressure
- 8 Jul 2006street pressure
- 1 May 2006street pressure
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- 2006election
- 7 Apr 2005street pressure
- Jan 2005conflict escalation
- 29 Aug 2004street pressure
- 27 Jun 2004street pressure
- Jan 2004conflict escalation
- 31 Jan 2003street pressure
- 1 Jan 2002capital controls
- 2002sovereign stress
- 11 Mar 2001street pressure
- 2000election
- 1 Jul 1999external support
- 11 Feb 1999street pressure
- 10 Apr 1998street pressure
- 12 Jan 1998street pressure
- Dec 1997conflict escalation
- 29 Nov 1997street pressure
- 13 Jul 1997street pressure
- 1 May 1995street pressure
- 11 Feb 1995street pressure
- 1 Feb 1995external support
- 15 Jan 1995street pressure
- 1995currency stress
- 1 Dec 1994street pressure
- 27 Aug 1994street pressure
- 1994election
- 2 Oct 1993street pressure
- Feb 1993conflict escalation
- 20 Aug 1991street pressure
- 1 May 1989external support
- 1 May 1988external support
- 1988currency stress
- 1988election
- 1987currency stress
- 1 Jul 1986external support
- 1986currency stress
- 1985currency stress
- 1984currency stress
- 1 May 1983external support
- 1983currency stress
- 1 Dec 1982external support
- 1 Jan 1982capital controls
- 1982currency stress
- 1982election
- 1 Nov 1981external support
- 1981sovereign stress
- 1978sovereign stress
- 1977currency stress
- 1 Sep 1976external support
- 1976currency stress
- 1976election
- 1970election
- 1964election
- 1958election
- 1954currency stress
- 1952election
- 1946election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 79.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 78.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 60.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 60.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 60.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 60.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1962 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 59.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 59.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 59.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 59.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 58.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 58.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 58.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1975 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 57.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1981 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 81.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1990 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 59.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1992 | 58.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1993 | 56.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1994 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 66.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 68.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1998 | 58.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1999 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 81.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 93.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 87.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 86.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
3 points
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Silver: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 15.6 elevated · upward pressure
Mexico
armed conflict activity
supply
Crude oil: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 11.1 low · upward pressure
India · Iran · Nigeria · Mexico · Russia · China · Venezuela
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Nepal, 2007
Details
NPL, 2007
Published archive distance 0.2506. This similarity is not a forecast.
AGO, 2005
Published archive distance 0.2671. This similarity is not a forecast.
KGZ, 2015
Published archive distance 0.2686. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events42%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 1 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 60.9The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Mexico in this snapshot
Mexico (MEX) records Watch pressure at 64.0 of 100 and touches 3 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 60.9.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 3 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Mexico has pressure score 64/100 in Watch. 44 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 45. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Japan (JPN), 64/100, tied; Bangladesh (BGD), 62/100, lower by 2.
Mexico's highest decade mean is recorded in 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 91.4). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 59.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 77.4 | 72.4 | 79.5 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 63.2 | 60.1 | 74.4 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 59.7 | 59 | 60.4 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 61.9 | 57.8 | 74 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 72.7 | 60.8 | 82.5 | 3 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 62.8 | 56 | 71.8 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 69.6 | 55.3 | 89.6 | 3 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 85.5 | 78.2 | 95 | 7 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 91.4 | 86.7 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Mexico's mapped-score peak is 95 in 2014, 2019-2020; the minimum is 55.3 in 2003.
Every published year for Mexico, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Mexico is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 42 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1953, 1978-1979, 1981-1988, 1990, 1994-1996, 2001-2002, 2006-2025. The remaining 38 are below 65.
Mexico is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 19 of 80 readings: 1982-1983, 1986, 2007-2009, 2013-2025. The remaining 61 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Mexico is 2012 to 2013: Strain (79.3) to Crisis (89.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Mexico records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.