KWT, 1984
Published archive distance 0.4947. This similarity is not a forecast.
MKD
North Macedonia
North Macedonia has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
26.2 / 100
#151 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in North Macedonia in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in North Macedonia in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of North Macedonia, or with North Macedonia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- <0.1% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population1.8M1,820,909 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalSkopjeSkopje
Area25.7k km²25713
GDP~$19.1B (2025)~19.1 USD bn (2025, WB); comparison estimate ~15-16B (IMF DataMapper) , discrepancy, direct WB figure preferred · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank; International Monetary Fund
CurrencyMKDMKD , denar (den)
LanguagesMacedonianMacedonian
Armed forces16k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 76.5 (1960s); lowest 43.2 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 30 · Country record
- 2024election
- 1 Nov 2022external support
- 2022sovereign stress
- 2019election
- 16 May 2015street pressure
- 2014election
- 1 Jan 2011external support
- 2009election
- 2008sovereign stress
- 1 Aug 2005external support
- 26 Jul 2004street pressure
- 2004election
Show all 30
- 1 Apr 2003external support
- 24 May 2002street pressure
- 1 Nov 2000external support
- 18 May 2000street pressure
- 29 Feb 2000street pressure
- 1999election
- 1998election
- 1 Apr 1997external support
- 1997currency stress
- 4 Jul 1996street pressure
- 1 May 1995external support
- 18 Feb 1995street pressure
- 1994currency stress
- 1994election
- 1993currency stress
- 1992currency stress
- 1992sovereign stress
- 1991currency stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1950 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1951 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1952 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 82.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 56.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 56.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 56.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1975 | 55.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 55.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 53.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1979 | 51.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1980 | 51.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1981 | 51.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1982 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 56.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1990 | 44.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1991 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 82.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 83.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 81.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 62.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 77.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 58.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 58.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 69.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 80.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 79.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 45.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2021 | 23.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2022 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 36.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 26.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.2 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Kuwait, 1984
Details
CZE, 2001
Published archive distance 0.5562. This similarity is not a forecast.
DEU, 2000
Published archive distance 0.5675. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy66%Confirmed: 2 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics73%Confirmed: 3 of 7; Sourced: 3 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events48%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information60%Confirmed: 0 of 3; Sourced: 3 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society75%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 1 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 64.9The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
North Macedonia in this snapshot
North Macedonia (MKD) records Calm pressure at 26.2 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 64.9.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
North Macedonia has pressure score 26.2/100 in Calm. 150 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 151. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Jamaica (JAM), 26.5/100, higher by 0.3; Norway (NOR), 26/100, lower by 0.2.
North Macedonia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 76.5). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 43.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 75 | 15 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 69.3 | 15 | 84.6 | 8 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 76.5 | 72.5 | 80 | 1 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 56.9 | 51.2 | 71.4 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 68.9 | 51.1 | 76.4 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 73.9 | 44.1 | 83.7 | 5 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 69.5 | 58.2 | 82.9 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 72.5 | 62.1 | 80.3 | 1 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 43.2 | 23.1 | 64 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), North Macedonia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948; the minimum is 15 in 1949-1951.
North Macedonia is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 68 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1952-1977, 1982-1989, 1991-2019, 2022-2023. The remaining 12 are below 55.
North Macedonia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 53 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1952-1970, 1982-1988, 1991-1999, 2001-2005, 2008-2016, 2019. The remaining 27 are below 65.
North Macedonia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 19 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1952-1960, 1992-1993, 1996-1998, 2001, 2014. The remaining 61 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for North Macedonia is 2023 to 2024: Watch (63.6) to Calm (36.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
North Macedonia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.