CassandrIA
MLTMalta flag

Malta

Malta has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

17.5 / 100

#183 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Malta in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Malta in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Malta, or with Malta as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population579.7k
CapitalValletta
Area316 km²
GDP~$24.5B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesMaltese, English
Armed forces2k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
11.6
L3 Politics
54
L4 Events
39.3
L5 Information
44.31
L6 Society
64.67

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 71.2 (1950s); lowest 21.3 (2000s).

Details

Recorded events 1 · Country record

  • 1 Jan 1995capital controls

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Malta · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194627.0Calmarchive reading
194727.0Calmarchive reading
194827.0Calmarchive reading
194920.4Calmarchive reading
195071.1Strainarchive reading
195171.0Strainarchive reading
195270.9Strainarchive reading
195370.7Strainarchive reading
195471.3Strainarchive reading
195557.1Watcharchive reading
195657.0Watcharchive reading
195771.9Strainarchive reading
195876.3Strainarchive reading
195995.0Crisisarchive reading
196076.1Strainarchive reading
196183.5Crisisarchive reading
196265.7Strainarchive reading
196365.7Strainarchive reading
196455.2Watcharchive reading
196555.1Watcharchive reading
196654.6Calmarchive reading
196755.5Watcharchive reading
196853.8Calmarchive reading
196953.3Calmarchive reading
197052.3Calmarchive reading
197154.3Calmarchive reading
197253.8Calmarchive reading
197353.4Calmarchive reading
197450.0Calmarchive reading
197548.4Calmarchive reading
197648.5Calmarchive reading
197751.4Calmarchive reading
197850.0Calmarchive reading
197946.8Calmarchive reading
198041.6Calmarchive reading
198141.2Calmarchive reading
198244.5Calmarchive reading
198362.4Watcharchive reading
198443.7Calmarchive reading
198539.2Calmarchive reading
198638.3Calmarchive reading
198737.4Calmarchive reading
198836.0Calmarchive reading
198931.9Calmarchive reading
199030.6Calmarchive reading
199129.5Calmarchive reading
199228.5Calmarchive reading
199327.5Calmarchive reading
199426.1Calmarchive reading
199521.7Calmarchive reading
199623.3Calmarchive reading
199721.7Calmarchive reading
199820.1Calmarchive reading
199918.6Calmarchive reading
200017.8Calmarchive reading
200117.6Calmarchive reading
200217.3Calmarchive reading
200317.3Calmarchive reading
200417.3Calmarchive reading
200517.3Calmarchive reading
200617.3Calmarchive reading
200718.6Calmarchive reading
200817.3Calmarchive reading
200955.6Watcharchive reading
201017.3Calmarchive reading
201117.3Calmarchive reading
201217.3Calmarchive reading
201323.2Calmarchive reading
201427.2Calmarchive reading
201527.8Calmarchive reading
201622.6Calmarchive reading
201728.2Calmarchive reading
201833.0Calmarchive reading
201928.7Calmarchive reading
202036.3Calmarchive reading
202120.4Calmarchive reading
202220.4Calmarchive reading
202318.6Calmarchive reading
202418.6Calmarchive reading
202517.5Calmarchive reading
Malta · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202617.5Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Denmark, 1999

Details
Denmark, 1999Australia, 1969Canada, 1971

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.1999. This similarity is not a forecast.

AUS, 1969

Published archive distance 0.2223. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 1971

Published archive distance 0.2267. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Malta
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-062Identity: 1 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-270Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-144Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z2Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy81%
L3 Politics79%
L4 Events48%
L5 Information60%
L6 Society80%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 70.3

Malta in this snapshot

Malta (MLT) records Calm pressure at 17.5 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 70.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Malta has pressure score 17.5/100 in Calm. 182 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 183. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Czechia (CZE), 17.5/100, tied; Latvia (LVA), 17.1/100, lower by 0.4.

Malta's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 71.2). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 21.3). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Malta: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949425.420.4270
1950-19591071.257951
1960-19691061.953.383.51
1970-19791050.946.854.30
1980-19891041.631.962.40
1990-19991024.818.630.60
2000-20091021.317.355.60
2010-20191024.317.3330
2020-202562217.536.30

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Malta's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1959; the minimum is 17.3 in 2002-2006, 2008, 2010-2012.

Malta is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 19 of 80 readings: 1950-1965, 1967, 1983, 2009. The remaining 61 are below 55.

Malta is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 12 of 80 readings: 1950-1954, 1957-1963. The remaining 68 are below 65.

Malta is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 2 of 80 readings: 1959, 1961. The remaining 78 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Malta is 2009 to 2010: Watch (55.6) to Calm (17.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Malta records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts