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Conflict escalation in November or December 2026
From 25 Oct 2026, estimates combine each country’s historical escalation rate at comparable recent death levels with rates pooled across countries. The pooled rates account for the average monthly deaths over the latest three months and how many of those months had deaths. They also account for the change from the preceding three months. A fixed smoothing rule gives pooled rates more influence when country history is limited. The method was selected using previously examined 2018–2025 data, so this retrospective comparison does not establish prospective accuracy or calibration.
November or December 2026
Where escalation is most likely
What counts as escalationThe eight highest estimates for conflict escalation in November or December 2026. Open any estimate to read the question and its resolution source.
- Chance of a conflict escalation in Iraq in November or December 202632% · real chance
- Chance of a conflict escalation in the Central African Republic in November or December 202631% · real chance
- Chance of a conflict escalation in Niger in November or December 202630% · real chance
- Chance of a conflict escalation in Afghanistan in November or December 202630% · real chance
- Chance of a conflict escalation in Chad in November or December 202630% · real chance
- Chance of a conflict escalation in the Philippines in November or December 202629% · real chance
- Chance of a conflict escalation in Iran in November or December 202627% · real chance
- Chance of a conflict escalation in Haiti in November or December 202627% · real chance
By category
Conflict escalation · 25 Oct 2026
One dated question per country, with a word for every estimate. Forecast open until 31 Dec 2026.
Each figure estimates the chance that organised violence on a country's territory, or with its government as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months, in November or December 2026. It does not measure current levels of violence.
Precision correction for the 22 October 2026 forecasts
Each estimate answers the conflict escalation question for that country. How the outlook is made.
The record
Published forecasts and earlier research, organised by issue. Explore the record.