UKR, 2008
Published archive distance 0.2445. This similarity is not a forecast.
EGY
Egypt
Egypt has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
76 / 100
#19 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Egypt in November or December 2026: 1.3% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Egypt in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Egypt, or with Egypt as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 1.3% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population118.4M118,365,995 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalCairoCairo · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area1M km²1002450 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$365.3B (2025)3.65255e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyEGPEGP · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesArabicArabic · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces836k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 86.9 (2010s); lowest 66 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 94 · Country record
- 2025election
- 2023election
- 1 Dec 2022external support
- May 2022conflict escalation
- Apr 2022conflict escalation
- Jul 2020conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 2020external support
- May 2020conflict escalation
- Jan 2020conflict escalation
- 2020election
- Sep 2019conflict escalation
- Dec 2018conflict escalation
Show all 94
- 2018election
- Nov 2017conflict escalation
- Jul 2017conflict escalation
- 10 Apr 2017state of emergency
- 2017currency stress
- 1 Nov 2016external support
- Oct 2016conflict escalation
- May 2016conflict escalation
- 12 Feb 2016street pressure
- 2016currency stress
- Sep 2015conflict escalation
- Jul 2015conflict escalation
- Feb 2015conflict escalation
- 2015election
- Sep 2014conflict escalation
- Jul 2014conflict escalation
- Apr 2014conflict escalation
- 2014election
- 14 Aug 2013state of emergency
- 5 Jul 2013street pressure
- 3 Jul 2013leadership break
- Jul 2013conflict escalation
- 30 Jun 2013street pressure
- Jun 2013conflict escalation
- 24 Jan 2013street pressure
- 9 Nov 2012street pressure
- 19 Jun 2012street pressure
- 20 Apr 2012street pressure
- 25 Jan 2012street pressure
- 2012election
- 29 Jul 2011street pressure
- 27 May 2011street pressure
- 11 Feb 2011leadership break
- 2011election
- 1 Feb 2010street pressure
- 2010election
- 2005election
- 2003currency stress
- 29 Mar 2002street pressure
- 2000election
- 1999election
- Nov 1997conflict escalation
- 1 Oct 1996external support
- Feb 1996conflict escalation
- Jun 1995conflict escalation
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- 1995election
- Feb 1994conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 1993external support
- Mar 1993conflict escalation
- 1993election
- 1 May 1991external support
- 1990election
- 1987election
- 6 Oct 1981leadership break
- 1981currency stress
- 1981election
- 1979currency stress
- 1979election
- 1976election
- 1 Jan 1975external support
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1971election
- 1 Jan 1970external support
- 1970election
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969election
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1965election
- 1964sovereign stress
- 1964election
- 1958election
- 1957election
- 1956election
- 1956conflict escalation
- 22 Jul 1952leadership break
- 1952conflict escalation
- 1951conflict escalation
- 1950election
- 1949conflict escalation
- 1948conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 93.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 66.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 73.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 83.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 85.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 85.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 85.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 65.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 64.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 63.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 71.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 78.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 79.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 84.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 80.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 58.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 48.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Ukraine, 2008
Details
VEN, 1956
Published archive distance 0.2733. This similarity is not a forecast.
IDN, 2010
Published archive distance 0.2795. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events30%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 4 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 1 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 57.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Egypt in this snapshot
Egypt (EGY) records Strain pressure at 76.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 57.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Egypt has pressure score 76/100 in Strain. 18 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 19. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Mali (MLI), 78/100, higher by 2; Türkiye (TUR), 76/100, tied.
Egypt's highest decade mean is recorded in 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 86.9). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 66). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 71 | 63.6 | 89.8 | 1 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 82 | 70.2 | 95 | 4 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 76.2 | 66 | 95 | 2 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 75.4 | 73.3 | 87.7 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 75.7 | 71.8 | 83.5 | 3 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 81.1 | 65.3 | 85.8 | 7 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 72.1 | 63.8 | 88.5 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 86.9 | 73.8 | 95 | 7 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 66 | 48.2 | 80.2 | 1 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Egypt's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1954-1955, 1967, 2013-2015, 2017; the minimum is 48.2 in 2025.
Egypt is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2024. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Egypt is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 74 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1999, 2001-2003, 2005-2022. The remaining 6 are below 65.
Egypt is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 27 of 80 readings: 1948, 1953-1956, 1966-1967, 1973, 1987-1989, 1991, 1993-1998, 2007, 2013-2020. The remaining 53 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Egypt is 2024 to 2025: Watch (58.3) to Calm (48.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Egypt records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.