IND, 1955
Published archive distance 0.1077. This similarity is not a forecast.
IRQ
Iraq
Iraq has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
68 / 100
#33 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Iraq in November or December 2026: 32% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Iraq in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Iraq, or with Iraq as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 32% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population47M47,020,774 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBaghdadBaghdad
Area438.3k km²438317
GDP$254.4B (2025)254.4 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyIQDIQD , Iraqi dinar (ع.د)
LanguagesArabic + moreArabic, Aramaic, Sorani
Armed forces459k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 94.7 (2010s); lowest 60.9 (1950s).
Details
Recorded events 114 · Country record
- May 2022conflict escalation
- Dec 2021conflict escalation
- 28 Oct 2019street pressure
- Oct 2016conflict escalation
- 1 Jul 2016external support
- 2 Mar 2016street pressure
- 7 Aug 2015street pressure
- Jun 2014conflict escalation
- Jul 2013conflict escalation
- May 2013conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 2013street pressure
- 4 Jan 2013street pressure
Show all 114
- 26 Dec 2012street pressure
- Jul 2012conflict escalation
- Jun 2012conflict escalation
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- Dec 2011conflict escalation
- Aug 2011conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 2010external support
- 9 Apr 2009street pressure
- Apr 2009conflict escalation
- 21 Nov 2008street pressure
- 1 Dec 2007external support
- Aug 2007conflict escalation
- 10 Apr 2007street pressure
- 1 Jan 2007displacement surge
- Jan 2007conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2006displacement surge
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2005external support
- Sep 2005conflict escalation
- May 2005conflict escalation
- 9 Apr 2005street pressure
- 2005election
- Nov 2004conflict escalation
- Sep 2004conflict escalation
- Aug 2004conflict escalation
- Apr 2004conflict escalation
- Feb 2004conflict escalation
- 15 Jan 2004street pressure
- Jan 2004conflict escalation
- Aug 2003conflict escalation
- 19 May 2003street pressure
- Mar 2003conflict escalation
- Dec 2002conflict escalation
- Mar 2002conflict escalation
- 2002election
- May 2000conflict escalation
- 2000currency stress
- Nov 1999conflict escalation
- Apr 1999conflict escalation
- 1999currency stress
- Jul 1998conflict escalation
- Jun 1998conflict escalation
- Sep 1997conflict escalation
- May 1997conflict escalation
- 1997currency stress
- Dec 1996conflict escalation
- Aug 1996conflict escalation
- Jun 1996conflict escalation
- May 1996conflict escalation
- Jul 1995conflict escalation
- 1995currency stress
- 1995election
- Dec 1994conflict escalation
- Aug 1994conflict escalation
- May 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- Sep 1993conflict escalation
- Feb 1993conflict escalation
- 1993currency stress
- Oct 1992conflict escalation
- Aug 1992conflict escalation
- Apr 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- Oct 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- 6 Aug 1990new sanctions
- 1 Jan 1990displacement surge
- 1988sovereign stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1985displacement surge
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980currency stress
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974currency stress
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 17 Jul 1968leadership break
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 8 Feb 1963leadership break
- 1963conflict escalation
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
- 1959conflict escalation
- 14 Jul 1958leadership break
- 1958conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1947 | 62.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1948 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 63.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1951 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 56.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 55.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 55.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 80.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 65.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1974 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 61.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1980 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 86.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 87.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 91.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 66.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 65.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 93.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 93.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 77.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 68.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: India, 1955
Details
CUB, 1967
Published archive distance 0.1194. This similarity is not a forecast.
DZA, 1965
Published archive distance 0.1522. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 5 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics80%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 2 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events48%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 62.6The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Iraq in this snapshot
Iraq (IRQ) records Strain pressure at 68.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 62.6.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Iraq has pressure score 68/100 in Strain. 32 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 8 share this score. Its competition rank is 33. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Germany (DEU), 68/100, tied; United Kingdom (GBR), 66/100, lower by 2.
Iraq's highest decade mean is recorded in 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 94.7). The lowest is 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 60.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 69.2 | 62.2 | 87.7 | 1 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 60.9 | 55.2 | 72.3 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 75.5 | 65.9 | 82.9 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 66.1 | 61.5 | 75.4 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 78.7 | 74.1 | 84.1 | 5 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 85.3 | 66.2 | 95 | 7 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 87.4 | 65.5 | 95 | 7 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 94.7 | 93.4 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 82.8 | 67.8 | 95 | 3 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Iraq's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1991, 1994-1995, 2003-2008, 2010-2011, 2013-2017, 2019-2021; the minimum is 55.2 in 1954.
Every published year for Iraq, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Iraq is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 63 of 80 readings: 1948, 1958-1970, 1972, 1974-1975, 1980-2025. The remaining 17 are below 65.
Iraq is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 37 of 80 readings: 1948, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1981-1983, 1988-1992, 1994-1997, 2003-2022. The remaining 43 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Iraq is 2022 to 2023: Crisis (93.1) to Strain (77.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Iraq records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.