UGA, 1993
Published archive distance 0.0972. This similarity is not a forecast.
SOM
Somalia
Somalia has a Crisis pressure reading, near the top of the ranking.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
82 / 100
#10 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Somalia in November or December 2026: 19% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Somalia in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Somalia, or with Somalia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 19% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population19.7M19,654,739 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalMogadishuMogadishu
Area637.7k km²637657
GDP$13B (2025)13.0 USD bn (2025, WB) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencySOSSOS , Somali shilling (Sh)
LanguagesArabic, SomaliArabic, Somali
Armed forces14k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (2010s); lowest 57 (1950s).
Details
Recorded events 89 · Country record
- Mar 2025conflict escalation
- Feb 2025conflict escalation
- Jan 2024conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2023new sanctions
- 1 Dec 2023external support
- Jul 2023conflict escalation
- Feb 2023conflict escalation
- Sep 2022conflict escalation
- Jul 2022conflict escalation
- Jan 2022conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 2020external support
- Dec 2019conflict escalation
Show all 89
- Mar 2018conflict escalation
- Oct 2017conflict escalation
- Mar 2016conflict escalation
- Jan 2016conflict escalation
- Jul 2015conflict escalation
- Jun 2015conflict escalation
- Oct 2014conflict escalation
- Aug 2012conflict escalation
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- Oct 2011conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2011displacement surge
- May 2009conflict escalation
- 5 May 2008street pressure
- Apr 2008conflict escalation
- Apr 2007conflict escalation
- Mar 2007conflict escalation
- Dec 2006conflict escalation
- May 2006conflict escalation
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- Jun 2005conflict escalation
- Dec 2004conflict escalation
- Mar 2004conflict escalation
- Jul 2003conflict escalation
- Feb 2003conflict escalation
- Jun 2002conflict escalation
- May 2002conflict escalation
- Jan 2002conflict escalation
- Dec 2001conflict escalation
- Aug 2001conflict escalation
- Jul 2001conflict escalation
- May 2001conflict escalation
- Mar 2001conflict escalation
- Aug 2000conflict escalation
- Jun 2000conflict escalation
- Feb 2000conflict escalation
- Aug 1999conflict escalation
- Jan 1999conflict escalation
- Dec 1998conflict escalation
- Apr 1998conflict escalation
- Mar 1998conflict escalation
- May 1997conflict escalation
- Dec 1996conflict escalation
- Aug 1996conflict escalation
- Jul 1996conflict escalation
- Apr 1996conflict escalation
- Jan 1996conflict escalation
- Jul 1995conflict escalation
- Nov 1994conflict escalation
- Oct 1994conflict escalation
- Jun 1994conflict escalation
- Oct 1993conflict escalation
- Jul 1992conflict escalation
- Jun 1992conflict escalation
- May 1992conflict escalation
- 23 Jan 1992new sanctions
- Nov 1991conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 1991external support
- 26 Jan 1991leadership break
- 1 Jan 1991displacement surge
- Jan 1991conflict escalation
- Dec 1990conflict escalation
- Oct 1990conflict escalation
- Aug 1990conflict escalation
- Jul 1989conflict escalation
- May 1989conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1988displacement surge
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986election
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1983capital controls
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1981capital controls
- 1974sovereign stress
- 15 Oct 1969leadership break
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1951 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 57.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 66.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 69.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 93.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 85.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 84.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 90.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 90.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 92.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 90.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 86.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 77.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Uganda, 1993
Details
SLE, 2003
Published archive distance 0.099. This similarity is not a forecast.
VNM, 1972
Published archive distance 0.1044. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 3 of 8; Sourced: 2 of 8; Inferred: 2 of 8; Unknown: 1 of 8
L3 Politics80%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 2 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events92%Confirmed: 4 of 5; Sourced: 1 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information87%Confirmed: 2 of 3; Sourced: 1 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society75%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 1 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 73.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Somalia in this snapshot
Somalia (SOM) records Crisis pressure at 82.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 73.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Somalia has pressure score 82/100 in Crisis. 9 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 10. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Russian Federation (RUS), 82/100, tied; Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of (VEN), 80/100, lower by 2.
Somalia's highest decade mean is recorded in 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 57). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 67.9 | 57 | 71.5 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 57 | 57 | 57.1 | 0 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 71.3 | 64.9 | 95 | 1 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 93.6 | 82.3 | 95 | 10 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 88.2 | 84.5 | 95 | 10 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 91.4 | 82 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 91 | 78.6 | 95 | 9 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 91.1 | 77.6 | 95 | 5 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Somalia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1969-1972, 1974-1978, 1988-1992, 1994, 1996, 2002, 2004, 2006-2023; the minimum is 57 in 1949-1958.
Every published year for Somalia, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Somalia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 68 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1960-1967, 1969-2025. The remaining 12 are below 65.
Somalia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 55 of 80 readings: 1969-1999, 2001-2024. The remaining 25 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Somalia is 2024 to 2025: Crisis (89.1) to Strain (77.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Somalia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.