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Norway

Norway has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

26 / 100

#152 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Norway in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Norway in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Norway, or with Norway as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population5.6M
CapitalOslo
Area323.8k km²
GDP$530.8B (2025)
CurrencyNOK
LanguagesNorwegian Nynorsk + more
Armed forces25k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
58.44
L3 Politics
14.9
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
7.8
L6 Society
No reading in this snapshot

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 57.2 (1946-1949); lowest 16.8 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 4 · Country record

  • 2015currency stress
  • 17 Jun 2001street pressure
  • 6 Sep 1999street pressure
  • 1 Jan 1973capital controls

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Norway · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194661.2Watcharchive reading
194759.0Watcharchive reading
194857.0Watcharchive reading
194951.7Calmarchive reading
195048.6Calmarchive reading
195140.2Calmarchive reading
195238.9Calmarchive reading
195336.7Calmarchive reading
195435.3Calmarchive reading
195533.8Calmarchive reading
195632.1Calmarchive reading
195731.2Calmarchive reading
195830.7Calmarchive reading
195930.3Calmarchive reading
196029.6Calmarchive reading
196129.2Calmarchive reading
196228.6Calmarchive reading
196328.3Calmarchive reading
196428.0Calmarchive reading
196527.8Calmarchive reading
196627.7Calmarchive reading
196727.5Calmarchive reading
196827.4Calmarchive reading
196927.1Calmarchive reading
197026.9Calmarchive reading
197126.8Calmarchive reading
197226.6Calmarchive reading
197326.4Calmarchive reading
197426.2Calmarchive reading
197525.9Calmarchive reading
197625.7Calmarchive reading
197725.6Calmarchive reading
197825.5Calmarchive reading
197925.4Calmarchive reading
198023.0Calmarchive reading
198122.6Calmarchive reading
198222.4Calmarchive reading
198322.5Calmarchive reading
198422.4Calmarchive reading
198522.1Calmarchive reading
198621.9Calmarchive reading
198721.8Calmarchive reading
198858.2Watcharchive reading
198921.6Calmarchive reading
199020.8Calmarchive reading
199120.7Calmarchive reading
199220.6Calmarchive reading
199320.5Calmarchive reading
199420.4Calmarchive reading
199520.4Calmarchive reading
199620.3Calmarchive reading
199720.2Calmarchive reading
199820.1Calmarchive reading
199920.0Calmarchive reading
200020.0Calmarchive reading
200125.3Calmarchive reading
200219.8Calmarchive reading
200319.8Calmarchive reading
200419.7Calmarchive reading
200519.6Calmarchive reading
200619.6Calmarchive reading
200719.5Calmarchive reading
200819.5Calmarchive reading
200953.2Calmarchive reading
201019.4Calmarchive reading
201119.3Calmarchive reading
201219.3Calmarchive reading
201319.8Calmarchive reading
201419.3Calmarchive reading
201519.1Calmarchive reading
201620.0Calmarchive reading
201720.8Calmarchive reading
201823.0Calmarchive reading
201916.1Calmarchive reading
202020.7Calmarchive reading
202115.7Calmarchive reading
202215.7Calmarchive reading
202315.7Calmarchive reading
202416.7Calmarchive reading
202516.4Calmarchive reading
Norway · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202626Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Switzerland, 1956

Details
Switzerland, 1956Malta, 2006Austria, 1993

CHE, 1956

Published archive distance 0.1139. This similarity is not a forecast.

MLT, 2006

Published archive distance 0.1147. This similarity is not a forecast.

AUT, 1993

Published archive distance 0.1184. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Norway
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society57%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 56.9

Norway in this snapshot

Norway (NOR) records Calm pressure at 26.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 56.9.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

3 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Norway has pressure score 26/100 in Calm. 151 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 152. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): North Macedonia (MKD), 26.2/100, higher by 0.2; Portugal (PRT), 26/100, tied.

Norway's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 57.2). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 16.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Norway: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949457.251.761.20
1950-19591035.830.348.60
1960-19691028.127.129.60
1970-19791026.125.426.90
1980-19891025.921.658.20
1990-19991020.42020.80
2000-20091023.619.553.20
2010-20191019.616.1230
2020-2025616.815.720.70

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Norway's mapped-score peak is 61.2 in 1946; the minimum is 15.7 in 2021-2023.

Norway is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 4 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1988. The remaining 76 are below 55.

Norway never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Norway never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Norway is 1988 to 1989: Watch (58.2) to Calm (21.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Norway records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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