SLE, 2002
Published archive distance 0.0325. This similarity is not a forecast.
SYR
Syrian Arab Republic
Syrian Arab Republic has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
75 / 100
#21 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Syria in November or December 2026: 23% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Syria in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Syria, or with Syria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 23% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population25.6M25,620,427 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalDamascusDamascus
Area185.2k km²185180
GDP$23.7B (2022)23.7 USD bn (2022 WB) · Year 2022 · Source: World Bank, 2022
CurrencySYPSYP , Syrian pound (£)
LanguagesArabicArabic
Armed forces269k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 94.2 (2020-2025); lowest 71.3 (2000s).
Details
Recorded events 69 · Country record
- 6 Jan 2026conflict escalation
- Jul 2025conflict escalation
- Mar 2025conflict escalation
- 8 Dec 2024leadership break
- Dec 2024conflict escalation
- Nov 2024conflict escalation
- Aug 2023conflict escalation
- Jan 2022conflict escalation
- 2021election
- 1 Jan 2018displacement surge
- 1 Jan 2017displacement surge
- 1 Jan 2016displacement surge
Show all 69
- Jan 2016conflict escalation
- 2016currency stress
- 1 Jan 2015displacement surge
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- 2015currency stress
- 1 Jan 2014displacement surge
- Jan 2014conflict escalation
- 2014currency stress
- 2014election
- 1 Jan 2013displacement surge
- Jan 2013conflict escalation
- 2013currency stress
- Aug 2012conflict escalation
- Jul 2012conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2012displacement surge
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- 2012currency stress
- Dec 2011conflict escalation
- Apr 2011conflict escalation
- 18 Mar 2011street pressure
- 2008sovereign stress
- 2007election
- 2004sovereign stress
- 2000election
- 1999election
- 1994currency stress
- 1991election
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1987currency stress
- 1987sovereign stress
- 1986currency stress
- 1985currency stress
- 1985election
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1979capital controls
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978election
- 1 Jan 1975capital controls
- 1971election
- 13 Nov 1970leadership break
- 25 Feb 1966leadership break
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965sovereign stress
- 27 Jul 1963leadership break
- 8 Mar 1963leadership break
- 28 Mar 1962leadership break
- 28 Sep 1961leadership break
- 28 Feb 1954leadership break
- 1953election
- 19 Dec 1949leadership break
- 13 Aug 1949leadership break
- 30 Mar 1949leadership break
- 1949election
- 1947election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 93.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 93.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 67.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 65.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 68.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1986 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 86.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 73.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 69.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 65.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 90.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Sierra Leone, 2002
Details
ETH, 1997
Published archive distance 0.0763. This similarity is not a forecast.
SDN, 1973
Published archive distance 0.0779. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 6 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy30%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 1 of 8; Inferred: 6 of 8; Unknown: 1 of 8
L3 Politics83%Confirmed: 4 of 7; Sourced: 3 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events84%Confirmed: 3 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information63%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 1 of 3; Inferred: 1 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 62The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Syrian Arab Republic in this snapshot
Syrian Arab Republic (SYR) records Strain pressure at 75.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 62.0.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Syrian Arab Republic has pressure score 75/100 in Strain. 20 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 21. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Korea, Democratic People's Republic of (PRK), 75/100, tied; France (FRA), 74/100, lower by 1.
Syrian Arab Republic's highest decade mean is recorded in 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 94.2). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 71.3). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 84.1 | 78.3 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 93.7 | 89.6 | 95 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 84.4 | 67.9 | 95 | 5 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 76.7 | 65.2 | 95 | 2 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 74.1 | 63.9 | 86.5 | 2 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 78.7 | 73.8 | 95 | 3 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 71.3 | 63.7 | 84 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 93 | 75.2 | 95 | 9 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 94.2 | 90.5 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Syrian Arab Republic's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1948, 1950-1953, 1958-1960, 1963, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1999, 2011-2024; the minimum is 63.7 in 2007.
Every published year for Syrian Arab Republic, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Syrian Arab Republic is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 76 of 80 readings: 1946-1982, 1984, 1986-2005, 2008-2025. The remaining 4 are below 65.
Syrian Arab Republic is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 41 of 80 readings: 1946, 1948-1960, 1963, 1965-1967, 1970, 1973, 1982, 1989, 1997-2000, 2011-2025. The remaining 39 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Syrian Arab Republic is 2010 to 2011: Strain (75.2) to Crisis (95). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Syrian Arab Republic records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.