equity
Indonesia: local market stress
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a local market.
Point score: 77.4 high · pressure on local assets
Indonesia
armed conflict activity · information disruption
IDN
Indonesia
Indonesia has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
58 / 100
#59 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Indonesia in November or December 2026: 10% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Indonesia in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Indonesia, or with Indonesia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 10% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population285.7M285,721,236 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalJakartaJakarta · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area1.9M km²1904569 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$1.4T (2025)1.44564e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyIDRIDR · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesIndonesianIndonesian · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces676k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 85.2 (1950s); lowest 59.6 (2010s).
Details
Recorded events 114 · Country record
- Oct 2025conflict escalation
- Apr 2025conflict escalation
- 2024election
- 23 Sep 2019street pressure
- 2019election
- 1 May 2018street pressure
- 2016sovereign stress
- 2014sovereign stress
- 2014election
- 1 May 2013street pressure
- 30 Mar 2012street pressure
- 2012sovereign stress
Show all 114
- 1 Jan 2011capital controls
- 8 Jul 2010street pressure
- 28 Jan 2010street pressure
- 2009election
- 4 Apr 2006street pressure
- 2005sovereign stress
- Jan 2004conflict escalation
- 2004election
- May 2003conflict escalation
- Apr 2003conflict escalation
- 16 Jan 2003street pressure
- Oct 2002conflict escalation
- Mar 2002conflict escalation
- Jan 2002conflict escalation
- Nov 2001conflict escalation
- 16 Jun 2001street pressure
- 3 Feb 2001street pressure
- Feb 2001conflict escalation
- 2001currency stress
- Nov 2000conflict escalation
- Jun 2000conflict escalation
- May 2000conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 2000external support
- 1 Dec 1999street pressure
- Dec 1999conflict escalation
- 8 Nov 1999street pressure
- Sep 1999conflict escalation
- 25 Aug 1999street pressure
- Mar 1999conflict escalation
- Jan 1999conflict escalation
- 12 Nov 1998street pressure
- 1 Aug 1998external support
- Jul 1998conflict escalation
- 2 May 1998street pressure
- 11 Mar 1998street pressure
- 20 Feb 1998street pressure
- 5 Jan 1998street pressure
- 1 Jan 1998capital controls
- 1998currency stress
- 1 Nov 1997external support
- 11 May 1997street pressure
- 2 Feb 1997street pressure
- Jan 1997conflict escalation
- 1997currency stress
- 1997sovereign stress
- 22 Apr 1996street pressure
- Jan 1996conflict escalation
- 11 Dec 1995street pressure
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- 14 Apr 1994street pressure
- 11 Feb 1994street pressure
- Dec 1992conflict escalation
- Nov 1991conflict escalation
- Mar 1991conflict escalation
- May 1990conflict escalation
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987currency stress
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979currency stress
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1977capital controls
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 1969external support
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968currency stress
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1967external support
- 1967currency stress
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966currency stress
- 1966sovereign stress
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965currency stress
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964currency stress
- 1964conflict escalation
- 1963currency stress
- 1963conflict escalation
- 1962currency stress
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
- 1960conflict escalation
- 1959conflict escalation
- 1958conflict escalation
- 1955election
- 1953conflict escalation
- 1950conflict escalation
- 1949conflict escalation
- 1948conflict escalation
- 1947conflict escalation
- 1946conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 94.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 76.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 87.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 82.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 90.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 90.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 78.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 78.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 58.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1996 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 82.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 93.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 92.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 85.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 76.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 54.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2008 | 53.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2009 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 58.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 51.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2012 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 62.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 47.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2016 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 47.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2018 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 71.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 68.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 66.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58 | Strain | estimated |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
4 points
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Palm Oil
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 46.4 high · upward pressure
Indonesia
armed conflict activity · information disruption
supply
Nickel: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 39.8 elevated · upward pressure
Indonesia · Russia
armed conflict activity · information disruption · protest activity
supply
Coal
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 23.2 elevated · upward pressure
Indonesia
armed conflict activity · information disruption
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Mauritius, 1996
Details
MUS, 1996
Published archive distance 0.1684. This similarity is not a forecast.
CZE, 1976
Published archive distance 0.1739. This similarity is not a forecast.
SRB, 1960
Published archive distance 0.1784. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics57%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 5 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 1 of 7
L4 Events42%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 1 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 59.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Indonesia in this snapshot
Indonesia (IDN) records Watch pressure at 58.0 of 100 and touches 4 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 59.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 4 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Indonesia has pressure score 58/100 in Watch. 58 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 11 share this score. Its competition rank is 59. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Saudi Arabia (SAU), 60/100, higher by 2; Kiribati (KIR), 58/100, tied.
Indonesia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 85.2). The lowest is 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 59.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 81.1 | 78.9 | 87 | 1 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 85.2 | 76.5 | 95 | 6 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 81.8 | 68.9 | 94.8 | 7 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 83.5 | 77.2 | 90.5 | 6 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 75.9 | 65.2 | 88.7 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 76.1 | 58.5 | 95 | 3 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 75.7 | 53.1 | 95 | 5 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 59.6 | 47 | 72.1 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 65.4 | 63.7 | 68.7 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Indonesia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1950, 1958-1959, 1998-2000; the minimum is 47 in 2017.
Indonesia is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 75 of 80 readings: 1946-2006, 2009-2010, 2012-2014, 2016, 2018-2025. The remaining 5 are below 55.
Indonesia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 65 of 80 readings: 1946-1994, 1997-2006, 2016, 2018-2021, 2025. The remaining 15 are below 65.
Indonesia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 29 of 80 readings: 1946, 1950-1951, 1953, 1957-1962, 1966-1971, 1975-1978, 1981, 1997-2004. The remaining 51 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Indonesia is 2024 to 2025: Watch (64.5) to Strain (66.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Indonesia records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.